Single: Cirstea vs Bejlek — odds 1.42

Why this betA single on Sorana Cirstea to beat Sara Bejlek in the second round of the Ningbo Open. Cirstea, the eighth seed and ranked 17, is 36-5 as a favourite this season and opened here with a 6:3, 6:2 win over Shi Han. Bejlek, ranked 32, needed three sets to get past Alycia Parks on Tuesday and is back on court a day later. Cirstea won their only meeting, 6:1, 7:6 at Wimbledon in June.

Leg 1 · Tennis · WTA · Ningbo Open, Ningbo · 21 OCT · 09:00 UK

Sorana Cirstea vs Sara Bejlek

Sorana Cirstea win1.42Lost

Why this pickThe serve decides it. Cirstea holds 73.6% of her service games this season and wins 68.6% of her first-serve points; Bejlek holds 62.6% and wins 60.8%, with 2.9 double faults a match. On return they are level, about 40% of return games each, so the breaks should come more often against Bejlek. Dimers gives Cirstea 63%, and Tennis Tonic and The Stats Zone both pick her. The risk: a week ago in Wuhan Cirstea lost to Guo Hanyu, ranked 189, from a set up. We expect 6:4, 6:3; a win in three sets also counts.

Predicted score: 2:0
Our estimate: 63–67%

Form · Cirstea is 36-5 as a favourite this season; Bejlek needed three sets on Tuesday

Sorana CirsteaLast 10: 6-4

Lost to Joint M. 6-4, 6-4
Won v Bartunkova N. 7-6(5), 6-3
Won v Kalinskaya A. 6(4)-7, 6-1, 5-0 ret.
Lost to Pegula J. 6-2, 4-6, 7-5
Won v Grabher J. 6-3, 6-0
Won v Parry D. 6-2, 7-5
Won v Paolini J. 6-3, 6-3
Lost to Pegula J. 6-3, 6-4
Lost to Guo H. 1-6, 7-6(6), 7-5
Won v Shi H. 6-3, 6-2

Sara BejlekLast 10: 5-5

Won v Sabalenka A. 7-6(7), 6-4
Won v Keys M. 3-6, 6-4, 7-6(5)
Lost to Gauff C. 6-4, 6-1
Lost to Bucsa C. 7-5, 4-6, 6-1
Won v Parks A. 6-4, 6-3
Lost to Bucsa C. 6-0, 6-4
Won v Inglis M. 6-3, 7-5
Lost to Osaka N. 7-6(4), 6-4
Lost to Paolini J. 6-3, 6-4
Won v Parks A. 4-6, 6-3, 6-3

Stats comparison

Stat	Cirstea	Bejlek
On hard courts	23-9	22-12
Last 10 matches	6-4	5-5
Service games held	73.6%	62.6%
Return games won	40.2%	39.3%

Our scenario

6:4, 6:3 2:0 in sets

Cirstea in two sets. On return the two are level: both win about 40% of return games this season. The gap is on serve: Cirstea holds 73.6% of her service games and serves 4.4 aces a match, Bejlek holds 62.6% with 1.2 aces and 2.9 double faults. Expect breaks on both sides, but more of them against Bejlek. We see 6:4, 6:3 Cirstea, with three sets the alternative; a win in three sets also counts for the bet.

Arguing against ourselves

01A week ago in Wuhan Cirstea lost to Guo Hanyu, ranked 189, as a heavy favourite.
02Our Elo calculation and the Dimers model both give Cirstea 63%, a little less than the line.
03Bejlek is 22-12 on hard courts this season and wins as many return games as Cirstea.

Cirstea this autumnShe opened in Ningbo with a 6:3, 6:2 win over Shi Han on Monday. A week earlier in Wuhan she lost to Guo Hanyu 6:1, 6:7(6), 5:7 after winning the first set. At the US Open she beat Julia Grabher, Dalma Parry and Jasmine Paolini 6:3, 6:3 before losing to Jessica Pegula in the fourth round.

Full match analysis