Cirstea vs Bejlek prediction · Ningbo Open

No. 01 · The short versionBet

Who will win Cirstea vs Bejlek?

Sorana Cirstea, the eighth seed, plays Sara Bejlek in the second round of the Ningbo Open on Wednesday. Our bet: Cirstea to win, most likely in two sets.

Predicted score: 2:0
Our estimate: 63–67%

Why we back it18+Play responsibly

Our pick: Sorana Cirstea win
Odds at publish: 1.43
Set by set: 6:4, 6:3
Not before (UK): 06:00

Cirstea vs Bejlek at a glance

Match	Sorana Cirstea vs Sara Bejlek
Tournament	WTA · Ningbo Open, Ningbo · Second round
Surface	Hard
Start	21 OCT · 06:00 UK · 13:00 local
Court	Center Court · Third match on court, after Fernandez v Sasnovich
Our pick	Sorana Cirstea win · 1.43 · bet
Our estimate	63–67%
Predicted score	2:0 (6:4, 6:3)
Main reason	We back Sorana Cirstea because her serve is the clearest difference on court: 73.6% of service games held this season against 62.6% for Sara Bejlek, with 68.6% of first-serve points won against 60.8%.

No. 02 · Form

Cirstea vs Bejlek: recent form

Cirstea is 36-5 as a favourite this season; Bejlek needed three sets on Tuesday

Sorana CirsteaLast 10: 6-4

Lost to Joint M. 6-4, 6-4
Won v Bartunkova N. 7-6(5), 6-3
Won v Kalinskaya A. 6(4)-7, 6-1, 5-0 ret.
Lost to Pegula J. 6-2, 4-6, 7-5
Won v Grabher J. 6-3, 6-0
Won v Parry D. 6-2, 7-5
Won v Paolini J. 6-3, 6-3
Lost to Pegula J. 6-3, 6-4
Lost to Guo H. 1-6, 7-6(6), 7-5
Won v Shi H. 6-3, 6-2

Sara BejlekLast 10: 5-5

Won v Sabalenka A. 7-6(7), 6-4
Won v Keys M. 3-6, 6-4, 7-6(5)
Lost to Gauff C. 6-4, 6-1
Lost to Bucsa C. 7-5, 4-6, 6-1
Won v Parks A. 6-4, 6-3
Lost to Bucsa C. 6-0, 6-4
Won v Inglis M. 6-3, 7-5
Lost to Osaka N. 7-6(4), 6-4
Lost to Paolini J. 6-3, 6-4
Won v Parks A. 4-6, 6-3, 6-3

Last ten results, oldest to newest; the ringed one is the latest. Tap a result for the opponent and score.

Show the matches

Sorana Cirstea
Won v	Shi H.Ningbo WTA · 19.10.26	6-3, 6-2
Lost to	Guo H.Wuhan · 13.10.26	1-6, 7-6(6), 7-5
Lost to	Pegula J.US Open · 07.09.26	6-3, 6-4
Won v	Paolini J.US Open · 04.09.26	6-3, 6-3
Won v	Parry D.US Open · 02.09.26	6-2, 7-5
Won v	Grabher J.US Open · 31.08.26	6-3, 6-0
Lost to	Pegula J.Cincinnati WTA · 19.08.26	6-2, 4-6, 7-5
Won v	Kalinskaya A.Cincinnati WTA · 17.08.26	6(4)-7, 6-1, 5-0 ret.
Won v	Bartunkova N.Cincinnati WTA · 15.08.26	7-6(5), 6-3
Lost to	Joint M.Toronto WTA · 06.08.26	6-4, 6-4

Sara Bejlek
Won v	Parks A.Ningbo WTA · 20.10.26	4-6, 6-3, 6-3
Lost to	Paolini J.Wuhan · 12.10.26	6-3, 6-4
Lost to	Osaka N.Beijing · 04.10.26	7-6(4), 6-4
Won v	Inglis M.Beijing · 02.10.26	6-3, 7-5
Lost to	Bucsa C.Guadalajara 2 WTA · 17.09.26	6-0, 6-4
Won v	Parks A.Guadalajara 2 WTA · 15.09.26	6-4, 6-3
Lost to	Bucsa C.US Open · 31.08.26	7-5, 4-6, 6-1
Lost to	Gauff C.Cincinnati WTA · 23.08.26	6-4, 6-1
Won v	Keys M.Cincinnati WTA · 21.08.26	3-6, 6-4, 7-6(5)
Won v	Sabalenka A.Cincinnati WTA · 20.08.26	7-6(7), 6-4

Cirstea this autumnShe opened in Ningbo with a 6:3, 6:2 win over Shi Han on Monday. A week earlier in Wuhan she lost to Guo Hanyu 6:1, 6:7(6), 5:7 after winning the first set. At the US Open she beat Julia Grabher, Dalma Parry and Jasmine Paolini 6:3, 6:3 before losing to Jessica Pegula in the fourth round.

No. 03 · Context

The eighth seed against the Czech number 32 in the second round in Ningbo

Bejlek this autumn: She came back from a set down to beat Alycia Parks 4:6, 6:3, 6:3 on Tuesday. Before Ningbo she lost to Jasmine Paolini in the first round in Wuhan and to Naomi Osaka in the third round in Beijing, and twice to Cristina Bucsa, in Guadalajara and at the US Open.
Season and surface: Cirstea is 40-16 this season, 23-9 on hard courts and 36-5 as a favourite. Bejlek, 20, is 25-21 overall and 22-12 on hard courts.
Head-to-head: One meeting: Cirstea won 6:1, 7:6(6) in the first round at Wimbledon on 29 June.
Rest: Cirstea played on Monday and rested on Tuesday. Bejlek played three sets on Tuesday and is back on court a day later.

No. 04 · Stats comparison

Cirstea holds 73.6% of her service games this season, Bejlek 62.6%

Stat	Cirstea	Bejlek
Season record	40-16 (better)	25-21
On hard courts	23-9 (better)	22-12
Last 10 matches	6-4 (better)	5-5
As favourite	36-5 (better)	17-7
As underdog	4-11	8-14 (better)

Stat	Cirstea	Bejlek
Matches	52	40
Aces per match	4.4 (better)	1.2
Double faults per match	2.1 (better)	2.9
1st serve in	59.1%	62.3% (better)
1st serve points won	68.6% (better)	60.8%
2nd serve points won	49.5% (better)	46.9%
Service games held	73.6% (better)	62.6%
Break points saved	56.5% (better)	53.4%

Stat	Cirstea	Bejlek
Return points won	45.5% (better)	45.4%
Return games won	40.2% (better)	39.3%
Break points converted	45.8% (better)	45.4%

Form rows: 2026 season to 20 October (Tennis Explorer). Serve and return: 2026 season, official WTA stats.. We read the data from Tennis Explorer, Tennis Abstract and the WTA and ATP tours, and form our own view.

No. 05 · Head to head1 meetings

Cirstea leads 1-0

2026

CirsteaWimbledon · Grass · R128

6-1 7-6(6)

No. 06 · What others predictConsensus 3 of 3

Who do others back in Cirstea vs Bejlek?

Source	Their view	Versus us
Dimers	Cirstea, 63%	Same side
Tennis Tonic	Cirstea in three sets	Same side
The Stats Zone	Cirstea 2-0	Same side

Our position3 of 3 back Cirstea. We are on Cirstea’s side.

No. 07 · Scenario & score

Cirstea vs Bejlek predicted score

Cirstea in two sets

On return the two are level: both win about 40% of return games this season. The gap is on serve: Cirstea holds 73.6% of her service games and serves 4.4 aces a match, Bejlek holds 62.6% with 1.2 aces and 2.9 double faults. Expect breaks on both sides, but more of them against Bejlek. We see 6:4, 6:3 Cirstea, with three sets the alternative; a win in three sets also counts for the bet.

Predicted score: 2:0; 6:4, 6:3
Alternative: 2:1; 6:4, 4:6, 6:3

No. 08 · Why this pick wins

Our Cirstea vs Bejlek pick: Sorana Cirstea win

Cirstea to win the match

Why we back it

We back Sorana Cirstea because her serve is the clearest difference on court: 73.6% of service games held this season against 62.6% for Sara Bejlek, with 68.6% of first-serve points won against 60.8%. Cirstea is 36-5 as a favourite in 2026, beat Bejlek 6:1, 7:6 at Wimbledon in June and had two days of rest after a 6:3, 6:2 opener. Bejlek needed three sets against Alycia Parks on Tuesday and has one day to recover.

Our probability63–67%

Our pickSorana Cirstea win

Odds1.43

Main scenario2:0

Our scenario: 6:4, 6:32:0 in sets
Alternative: 6:4, 4:6, 6:32:1 in sets

What would change our mind Cirstea's price drifting above 1.45 before the start, or any news about her fitness.

No. 09 · Arguing against ourselves

What could beat our pick?

A week ago in Wuhan Cirstea lost to Guo Hanyu, ranked 189, as a heavy favourite.
Our Elo calculation and the Dimers model both give Cirstea 63%, a little less than the line.
Bejlek is 22-12 on hard courts this season and wins as many return games as Cirstea.

No. 10 · Our call

Bet

We back Cirstea to win the match: she is 36-5 as a favourite this season and holds 73.6% of her service games, Bejlek 62.6%.

Bet: Sorana Cirstea win
Odds at publish: 1.43 · 21 OCT 06:31 UK

Information only. No guarantees.18+Play responsibly