Single: Como vs Man United — odds 1.43

Why this betA one-unit single on both teams to score in Como against Manchester United in the Champions League. The 1X2 prices make this close to a coin toss, so we stay off the result and back a goal at each end: both defences have kept one clean sheet in their last ten games, and both sides are on three points and need a win. Our main score is 1:1.

Leg 1 · Football · Europe · Champions League · 21 OCT · 17:45 UK

Como vs Man United

Both teams to score1.43Won

Why this pickBoth teams scored in eight of Como's last ten games and six of United's, and each kept only one clean sheet in that run, which meets our rule for this market. Como create 2.22 expected goals a game in Serie A and allow 1.68; United create 1.79 and allow 1.52 (Understat), and they have conceded in seven Champions League games in a row. United are without Lisandro Martínez, Shaw, Dorgu and Mainoo at the back and in midfield. The risk: Šeško is out, so United's goals rest on Mbeumo, and SportsGambler predicts 0:1.

Predicted score · alt 2:1: 1:1
Our estimate · Both teams to score: 64–67%

Form · Como 7 from 15. Man United 3 from 15.

Como7 pts

Winvs Fiorentina3:1
Lossvs Feyenoord2:3
Drawvs Roma0:0
Lossvs Frosinone0:2
Winvs Parma2:1

: 1.40
: 1.40
: 60%
: 60%

Man United3 pts

Drawvs Leeds United1:1
Lossvs Atlético Madrid0:2
Drawvs Tottenham1:1
Drawvs Fulham1:1
Lossvs Brighton2:3

: 1.00
: 1.60
: 20%
: 80%

Lineups · Expected

Como
OutAssane DiaoThigh injury
DoubtTrevoh ChalobahMuscle problem; sources differ
DoubtMoise KeanShin problem, fitness test (one preview)

Man United
OutBenjamin ŠeškoLeg injury
OutLisandro MartínezThigh injury
OutPatrick DorguHamstring injury
OutLuke ShawInjured
OutKobbie MainooKnock
OutAyden HeavenIllness

What others predict · Consensus 2 of 3

Our positionOn the winner the previews split: Sports Mole and SportsGambler favour Manchester United, the KickOff model and Opta (Como 41.7%) favour Como. On goals, Sports Mole's 1:2 and KickOff's 1.8 to 1.5 agree with us; SportsGambler's 0:1 is the case against.

Scenario & score

Como keep the ball, United hit on the break, both score. Fàbregas's Como keep the ball and shoot a lot, 19.1 times a game over their last ten, and push their full-backs high. United, without Šeško, rely on Mbeumo and Amad running into the space behind that line, against a home side that has kept one clean sheet in ten. United's defence is patched up without Lisandro Martínez and Shaw. 1:1 is our main score and 2:1 the alternative. Both teams to score wins with 1:1, 2:1, 1:2, 2:2 or any score where both sides find the net, and loses with 1:0, 2:0, 0:1 or 0:0.

Arguing against ourselves

01United are without Šeško and scored five goals in their last five games; their attack rests on Mbeumo.
02SportsGambler predicts 0:1, and Como failed to score in two of their last ten, 0:0 with Roma and 0:2 at Frosinone.
03Kean and Chalobah are doubts, so Como's line-up is not known until an hour before kick-off.
04The price is short: at 1.45 the market already expects goals at both ends.

Key factComo won 3:1 at Fiorentina on Sunday after losing 2:3 at Feyenoord in the Champions League; before that came 0:0 with Roma, 0:2 at Frosinone and 2:1 against Parma. Over ten games they are 6-2-2 with 22 goals for and 12 against, both teams scored in eight of them and Como kept one clean sheet. In Serie A they create 2.22 expected goals a game and allow 1.68 (Understat). Manchester United drew 1:1 at Leeds on Sunday after 0:2 at Atlético Madrid, 1:1 with Tottenham, 1:1 at Fulham and a 2:3 cup defeat to Brighton. They are 13th in the Premier League with seven points from seven games (Sports Mole), make 1.79 expected goals and allow 1.52, and both teams scored in six of their last ten. United have conceded in each of their last seven Champions League games (KickOff).

Full match analysis