Fabregas says Italy played Kean injured for 90 minutes. Roma have the bigger problem
Our take Roma lose more than Como
Football · Europe · Champions League · League phase, matchday 3 · Como
ComovsMan United Como vs Manchester United · prediction
Score
4:1
Date
21 OCT
City
Como
Status
Full time
COM4:1MUNFull time
No. 01 · The short versionBet
Who will win Como vs Man United?
Our Como vs Manchester United prediction is both teams to score, most likely 1:1, at the Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia on Wednesday (17:45 UK, 18:45 in Como). Cesc Fàbregas's Como are fifth in Serie A with 14 points from seven games and kept only one clean sheet in their last ten matches; Michael Carrick's Manchester United have one clean sheet in ten too, and have not won in five games in all competitions. Both sides are on three points in the Champions League, so neither can settle for a point. The result is close to a coin toss; a goal at each end is our bet.
- Predicted score · alt 2:1
- 1:1
- Our estimate
- 64–67%
- Market
- Both teams to score
- Price now
- 1.43
Como vs Man United at a glance
| Match | Como vs Manchester United |
|---|---|
| Competition | UEFA Champions League · League phase, matchday 3 |
| Kick-off | 21 OCT · 17:45 UK · 18:45 Como |
| Venue | Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia, Como |
| Our pick | Both teams to score · 1.43 · bet |
| Our estimate | 64–67% |
| Predicted score | 1:1 |
| Main reason | We do not need a winner here, we need a goal at each end, and both defences make that likely. |
No. 04 · Form
Como vs Man United: recent form
Como 7 from 15. Man United 3 from 15.
Como7 pts
- Winvs Fiorentina3:1
- Lossvs Feyenoord2:3
- Drawvs Roma0:0
- Lossvs Frosinone0:2
- Winvs Parma2:1
- Goals scored per game in these matches.
- 1.40
- Goals conceded per game in these matches.
- 1.40
- Share of these matches with three or more goals.
- 60%
- Both teams to score: share of these matches in which both sides scored.
- 60%
Man United3 pts
- Drawvs Leeds United1:1
- Lossvs Atlético Madrid0:2
- Drawvs Tottenham1:1
- Drawvs Fulham1:1
- Lossvs Brighton2:3
- Goals scored per game in these matches.
- 1.00
- Goals conceded per game in these matches.
- 1.60
- Share of these matches with three or more goals.
- 20%
- Both teams to score: share of these matches in which both sides scored.
- 80%
Key factComo won 3:1 at Fiorentina on Sunday after losing 2:3 at Feyenoord in the Champions League; before that came 0:0 with Roma, 0:2 at Frosinone and 2:1 against Parma. Over ten games they are 6-2-2 with 22 goals for and 12 against, both teams scored in eight of them and Como kept one clean sheet. In Serie A they create 2.22 expected goals a game and allow 1.68 (Understat). Manchester United drew 1:1 at Leeds on Sunday after 0:2 at Atlético Madrid, 1:1 with Tottenham, 1:1 at Fulham and a 2:3 cup defeat to Brighton. They are 13th in the Premier League with seven points from seven games (Sports Mole), make 1.79 expected goals and allow 1.52, and both teams scored in six of their last ten. United have conceded in each of their last seven Champions League games (KickOff).
No. 05 · LineupsExpected
Como vs Man United team news
Man United without Šeško, Lisandro Martínez and Shaw; Kean a doubt for Como.
Como
- OutAssane DiaoThigh injury
- DoubtTrevoh ChalobahMuscle problem; sources differ
- DoubtMoise KeanShin problem, fitness test (one preview)
Man United
- OutBenjamin ŠeškoLeg injury
- OutLisandro MartínezThigh injury
- OutPatrick DorguHamstring injury
- OutLuke ShawInjured
- OutKobbie MainooKnock
- OutAyden HeavenIllness
TacticsManchester United are without striker Benjamin Šeško, Lisandro Martínez, Patrick Dorgu, Luke Shaw, Kobbie Mainoo and Ayden Heaven, according to both Sports Mole and SportsGambler (the two previews give a different injury for Šeško, but agree he is out). Sports Mole also lists Manuel Ugarte, Leny Yoro (suspended) and Marcus Rashford, which we could not confirm with a second source. That leaves a back four of Mazraoui, Maguire, De Ligt and Dalot in both predicted line-ups, with Bryan Mbeumo up front and Amad, Tielemans and Bruno Fernandes behind him. Como are without Assane Diao; Moise Kean is having his fitness checked (Sports Mole), and Trevoh Chalobah is a doubt, with the previews disagreeing on whether he plays. Both previews expect Tasos Douvikas to lead Como's attack, with Jesús Rodríguez, Nico Paz and Martin Baturina behind him. Line-ups are expected about an hour before kick-off.
In the news
No. 06 · What others predictConsensus 2 of 3
Who do others back in Como vs Man United?
Two of three see goals at both ends.
| Source | Pick |
|---|---|
| Sports Mole | Como 1:2 Manchester United |
| SportsGambler | Como 0:1 Manchester United |
| KickOff (model) | Expected goals 1.8 to 1.5, both teams to score 64% |
Our positionOn the winner the previews split: Sports Mole and SportsGambler favour Manchester United, the KickOff model and Opta (Como 41.7%) favour Como. On goals, Sports Mole's 1:2 and KickOff's 1.8 to 1.5 agree with us; SportsGambler's 0:1 is the case against.
No. 07 · Scenario & score
Como vs Man United predicted score
Como keep the ball, United hit on the break, both score.
Fàbregas's Como keep the ball and shoot a lot, 19.1 times a game over their last ten, and push their full-backs high. United, without Šeško, rely on Mbeumo and Amad running into the space behind that line, against a home side that has kept one clean sheet in ten. United's defence is patched up without Lisandro Martínez and Shaw. 1:1 is our main score and 2:1 the alternative. Both teams to score wins with 1:1, 2:1, 1:2, 2:2 or any score where both sides find the net, and loses with 1:0, 2:0, 0:1 or 0:0.
- Predicted score
- 1:1
- Alternative
- 2:1
Your score
COM
MUN
No. 08 · Why this pick wins
Our Como vs Man United pick: Both teams to score
Both teams to score: why this pick wins
Why we back it
We do not need a winner here, we need a goal at each end, and both defences make that likely. Como scored 22 and conceded 12 in their last ten games with one clean sheet; United conceded 15 in that run, also with one clean sheet, and have let in a goal in seven Champions League games in a row. Both teams are on three points and need to win, and United line up without Lisandro Martínez and Shaw. We expect Mbeumo and Fernandes to find space behind Como's high line, and Paz and Baturina to create Como's chances.
Our probability64–67%
Our pickBoth teams to score
Odds1.43
Main scenario1:1
- Wins with
- 1:12:11:22:23:13:2…
- Loses with
- 1:02:00:00:13:00:2…
- Our scenario
- 1:1alternative 2:1
What would change our mind If neither Douvikas nor Mbeumo starts, we would drop both teams to score.
Odds and break-even, for reference
| Market | Odds | Break-even |
|---|---|---|
| Como win | 2.15 | 46.5% |
| Draw | 3.80 | 26.3% |
| Man United win | 3.02 | 33.1% |
| Como or draw | 1.37 | 73% |
| Man United or draw | 1.68 | 59.5% |
| Both teams to score | 1.43 | 69.9% |
| Both teams not to score | 2.63 | 38% |
Odds snapshot 21 OCT 07:41 · no bookmaker names
No. 09 · Arguing against ourselves
What could beat our pick?
Why one side could stay at zero.
- United are without Šeško and scored five goals in their last five games; their attack rests on Mbeumo.
- SportsGambler predicts 0:1, and Como failed to score in two of their last ten, 0:0 with Roma and 0:2 at Frosinone.
- Kean and Chalobah are doubts, so Como's line-up is not known until an hour before kick-off.
- The price is short: at 1.45 the market already expects goals at both ends.
No. 10 · Editor’s call
Bet
Bet Both teams to score at 1.43, a single for one unit. Any score where both teams find the net takes it; a clean sheet for either side loses it.
Information only. No guarantees.18+Play responsibly
No. 11 · Update log
- Prediction published · Both teams to score at 1.43
No. 12 · After the match
- We said
- 1:1Bet at 1.43
- Happened
- 4:1Como win
Won
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FAQ
What does Bet mean?
We expect this result and play it, as a single or as one leg of a double. It is logged in the tracker at the published odds.
How do you choose a pick?
We start from the market, then check a statistical model, named previews and our own scenario test against everything that moves the result: lineups, rest, motivation, style and team news. We publish when at least three of the four agree and the pick wins in the main scorelines. A warning sign, such as a back-up goalie or tired legs, moves us to a safer market or leaves the match as analysis only.
Can a prediction change after publishing?
No. The pick, odds and time are locked when published. Updates go into the log above.