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Single · No. 128 · 21 OCTWon

Paul vs Bonzi

  1. 01Tommy Paul vs Benjamin BonziTommy Paul win1.33 · Won
Total odds
1.33
Stake
1.00 unit
P&L
+0.33 units
Our estimate
70–74%
Published 21 OCT 07:0518+Play responsibly
Why this betA single on Tommy Paul to beat Benjamin Bonzi in the second round of the Lyon Open. Paul, the fourth seed and ranked 15, is 40-14 as a favourite this season and reached the Shanghai quarter-finals last week, where he took a set off Daniil Medvedev. He leads Bonzi 3-0 without dropping a set. Bonzi, ranked 100, plays at home and beat Cameron Norrie in three sets on Tuesday.
Leg 1 · Tennis · ATP · Lyon Open, Lyon · 21 OCT · 19:30 UK

Tommy Paul vs Benjamin Bonzi

Tommy Paul win1.33Won
Why this pickBoth hold serve about 81% of the time over their last ten tour matches with stats, so the return decides: Paul won 27.3% of his return games and converted 46.3% of his break points, Bonzi 23.8% and 37.5%. Bonzi wins only 49% of his second-serve points. Dimers gives Paul 71%, Matchstat about 69%, and Tennis Tonic picks him in two sets. The risks: Bonzi has the home crowd and match rhythm, the match is the last of a long session, and Paul lost to Alejandro Tabilo as a favourite in Tokyo. We expect 6:4, 7:5; a win in three sets also counts.
Predicted score
2:0
Our estimate
70–74%

Form · Paul reached the Shanghai quarter-finals; Bonzi beat Cameron Norrie in three sets on Tuesday

Tommy PaulLast 10: 6-4
  1. Lost to Cobolli F. 2-6, 6-3, 6-4
  2. Won v Wong C. 6(3)-7, 6-1, 6-3, 6-3
  3. Won v Prizmic D. 6-2, 6-3, 5-7, 6-4
  4. Won v Bublik A. 6-4, 3-6, 6(4)-7, 6-1, 6-3
  5. Lost to Alcaraz C. 6-4, 6-3, 6-4
  6. Lost to Tabilo A. 6-1, 6-2
  7. Won v Vallejo A. 6-2, 6-2
  8. Won v Vacherot V. 6-4, 6-2
  9. Won v Bergs Z. 7-6(5), 6-4
  10. Lost to Medvedev D. 6-3, 1-6, 6-3
Benjamin BonziLast 10: 6-4
  1. Won v Hijikata R. 6-1, 6-1
  2. Won v Van De Zandschulp B. 7-6(5), 6-4
  3. Lost to Buse I. 6-2, 4-6, 6-1
  4. Won v Molcan A. 6-4, 3-6, 6-3, 6-2
  5. Won v Buse I. 6-2, 7-6(4), 6-0
  6. Lost to Khachanov K. 6-3, 6-2, 6-4
  7. Lost to Holmgren A. 6-3, 6-4
  8. Won v Grenier H. 6(5)-7, 6-1, 6-3
  9. Lost to Brunold M. 6-2, 2-6, 6-4
  10. Won v Norrie C. 6-3, 3-6, 6-3

Stats comparison

StatPaulBonzi
On hard courts24-1327-17
Last 10 matches6-46-4
Service games held81.6%81.0%
Return games won27.3%23.8%

Our scenario

6:4, 7:5 2:0 in sets

Paul in two sets. Both serve well indoors: Paul held 81.6% of his service games over his last ten tour matches with stats, Bonzi 81.0%, and Bonzi wins 76.1% of his first-serve points. The difference is Bonzi's second serve (49.0% of points won) and Paul's return, so expect one or two breaks a set in Paul's favour. We see 6:4, 7:5 Paul; three sets is the alternative if Bonzi rides the crowd, and a win in three also counts.

Arguing against ourselves

  1. 01It is the last match of a long session in Lyon and the start can slip past 8:30 PM local time.
  2. 02Bonzi plays at home and already has a match on this court, a win over Cameron Norrie.
  3. 03Paul lost to Alejandro Tabilo 1:6, 2:6 as a favourite in Tokyo three weeks ago.
Paul this autumnIn Shanghai he beat Adolfo Vallejo 6:2, 6:2, Valentin Vacherot 6:4, 6:2 and Zizou Bergs 7:6, 6:4, then lost to Daniil Medvedev 3:6, 6:1, 3:6 in the quarter-finals on 16 October. Before that he lost his Tokyo opener to Alejandro Tabilo 1:6, 2:6 and reached the US Open fourth round, where Carlos Alcaraz beat him.
Full match analysis