Paul vs Bonzi prediction · Lyon Open

No. 01 · The short versionBet

Who will win Paul vs Bonzi?

Tommy Paul, the fourth seed, opens his Lyon Open against Benjamin Bonzi in the second round on Wednesday evening. Our bet: Paul to win, most likely in two sets.

Predicted score: 2:0
Our estimate: 70–74%

Why we back it18+Play responsibly

Our pick: Tommy Paul win
Odds at publish: 1.32
Set by set: 6:4, 7:5
Not before (UK): 11:00

Paul vs Bonzi at a glance

Match	Tommy Paul vs Benjamin Bonzi
Tournament	ATP · Lyon Open, Lyon · Second round
Surface	Indoor hard
Start	21 OCT · 11:00 UK · 12:00 local
Court	Court Central · Fourth singles match on court, after Kouame v Musetti (not before 7:00 PM)
Our pick	Tommy Paul win · 1.32 · bet
Our estimate	70–74%
Predicted score	2:0 (6:4, 7:5)
Main reason	We back Tommy Paul because the return game separates these two: over his last ten tour matches with stats Paul won 27.3% of his return games and converted 46.3% of his break points, Benjamin Bonzi 23.8% and 37.5%, while both held serve about 81% of the time.

No. 02 · Form

Paul vs Bonzi: recent form

Paul reached the Shanghai quarter-finals; Bonzi beat Cameron Norrie in three sets on Tuesday

Tommy PaulLast 10: 6-4

Lost to Cobolli F. 2-6, 6-3, 6-4
Won v Wong C. 6(3)-7, 6-1, 6-3, 6-3
Won v Prizmic D. 6-2, 6-3, 5-7, 6-4
Won v Bublik A. 6-4, 3-6, 6(4)-7, 6-1, 6-3
Lost to Alcaraz C. 6-4, 6-3, 6-4
Lost to Tabilo A. 6-1, 6-2
Won v Vallejo A. 6-2, 6-2
Won v Vacherot V. 6-4, 6-2
Won v Bergs Z. 7-6(5), 6-4
Lost to Medvedev D. 6-3, 1-6, 6-3

Benjamin BonziLast 10: 6-4

Won v Hijikata R. 6-1, 6-1
Won v Van De Zandschulp B. 7-6(5), 6-4
Lost to Buse I. 6-2, 4-6, 6-1
Won v Molcan A. 6-4, 3-6, 6-3, 6-2
Won v Buse I. 6-2, 7-6(4), 6-0
Lost to Khachanov K. 6-3, 6-2, 6-4
Lost to Holmgren A. 6-3, 6-4
Won v Grenier H. 6(5)-7, 6-1, 6-3
Lost to Brunold M. 6-2, 2-6, 6-4
Won v Norrie C. 6-3, 3-6, 6-3

Last ten results, oldest to newest; the ringed one is the latest. Tap a result for the opponent and score.

Show the matches

Tommy Paul
Lost to	Medvedev D.Shanghai · 16.10.26	6-3, 1-6, 6-3
Won v	Bergs Z.Shanghai · 14.10.26	7-6(5), 6-4
Won v	Vacherot V.Shanghai · 12.10.26	6-4, 6-2
Won v	Vallejo A.Shanghai · 10.10.26	6-2, 6-2
Lost to	Tabilo A.Tokyo (Japan Open) · 30.09.26	6-1, 6-2
Lost to	Alcaraz C.US Open · 06.09.26	6-4, 6-3, 6-4
Won v	Bublik A.US Open · 04.09.26	6-4, 3-6, 6(4)-7, 6-1, 6-3
Won v	Prizmic D.US Open · 03.09.26	6-2, 6-3, 5-7, 6-4
Won v	Wong C.US Open · 30.08.26	6(3)-7, 6-1, 6-3, 6-3
Lost to	Cobolli F.Cincinnati · 20.08.26	2-6, 6-3, 6-4

Benjamin Bonzi
Won v	Norrie C.Lyon · 20.10.26	6-3, 3-6, 6-3
Lost to	Brunold M.Roanne challenger · 14.10.26	6-2, 2-6, 6-4
Won v	Grenier H.Roanne challenger · 12.10.26	6(5)-7, 6-1, 6-3
Lost to	Holmgren A.Porto challenger · 28.09.26	6-3, 6-4
Lost to	Khachanov K.US Open · 05.09.26	6-3, 6-2, 6-4
Won v	Buse I.US Open · 03.09.26	6-2, 7-6(4), 6-0
Won v	Molcan A.US Open · 02.09.26	6-4, 3-6, 6-3, 6-2
Lost to	Buse I.Winston Salem · 28.08.26	6-2, 4-6, 6-1
Won v	Van De Zandschulp B.Winston Salem · 27.08.26	7-6(5), 6-4
Won v	Hijikata R.Winston Salem · 26.08.26	6-1, 6-1

Paul this autumnIn Shanghai he beat Adolfo Vallejo 6:2, 6:2, Valentin Vacherot 6:4, 6:2 and Zizou Bergs 7:6, 6:4, then lost to Daniil Medvedev 3:6, 6:1, 3:6 in the quarter-finals on 16 October. Before that he lost his Tokyo opener to Alejandro Tabilo 1:6, 2:6 and reached the US Open fourth round, where Carlos Alcaraz beat him.

No. 03 · Context

The fourth seed opens in Lyon against a Frenchman in front of a home crowd

Bonzi this autumn: He beat Cameron Norrie 6:3, 3:6, 6:3 in the first round here on Tuesday. Before Lyon he lost to Mats Brunold at the Roanne Challenger and to Alexander Holmgren in Porto; at the US Open he reached the third round and lost to Karen Khachanov.
Season and surface: Paul is 43-20 this season, 24-13 on hard courts and 40-14 as a favourite. Bonzi is 37-26 and 27-17 on hard courts.
Head-to-head: Paul leads 3-0, all in straight sets: Adelaide 2022 (6:4, 7:6), Miami 2022 (6:4, 6:4) and Stuttgart 2023 (6:3, 6:4).
Rest and travel: Paul had a first-round bye and five days off after Shanghai, with a flight from China to France. Bonzi played three sets on Tuesday and plays at home.

No. 04 · Stats comparison

Paul won 27.3% of his return games over his last ten tour matches with stats, Bonzi 23.8%

Stat	Paul	Bonzi
Season record	43-20 (better)	37-26
On hard courts	24-13 (better)	27-17
Last 10 matches	6-4	6-4
As favourite	40-14 (better)	27-10
As underdog	3-6	10-16 (better)

Stat	Paul	Bonzi
Matches (W-L)	10 (6-4)	10 (6-4)
Aces per match	6.8 (better)	6.4
Double faults per match	2.0 (better)	3.1
1st serve in	60.4% (better)	58.9%
1st serve points won	72.6%	76.1% (better)
2nd serve points won	52.8% (better)	49.0%
Service games held	81.6% (better)	81.0%
Break points saved	67.5% (better)	60.7%

Stat	Paul	Bonzi
Return points won	38.7% (better)	38.2%
Return games won	27.3% (better)	23.8%
Break points converted	46.3% (better)	37.5%

Form rows: 2026 season to 20 October. Serve and return: last 10 tour-level matches with stats: Tommy Paul 13.08.2026–07.10.2026, Benjamin Bonzi 23.08.2026–12.10.2026. We read the data from Tennis Explorer, Tennis Abstract and the WTA and ATP tours, and form our own view.

No. 05 · Head to head3 meetings

Paul leads 3-0

2023	PaulStuttgart · Grass · R32	6-3 6-4
2022	PaulMiami Masters · Hard · R128	6-4 6-4
2022	PaulAdelaide 2 · Hard · R16	6-4 7-6(6)

No. 06 · What others predictConsensus 4 of 4

Who do others back in Paul vs Bonzi?

Source	Their view	Versus us
Dimers	Paul, 71%	Same side
Matchstat	Paul, about 69%	Same side
Tennis Tonic	Paul in two sets	Same side
Tennis Abstract	Paul, 74.3% (our fresh Elo)	Same side

Our position4 of 4 back Paul. We are on Paul’s side.

No. 07 · Scenario & score

Paul vs Bonzi predicted score

Paul in two sets

Both serve well indoors: Paul held 81.6% of his service games over his last ten tour matches with stats, Bonzi 81.0%, and Bonzi wins 76.1% of his first-serve points. The difference is Bonzi's second serve (49.0% of points won) and Paul's return, so expect one or two breaks a set in Paul's favour. We see 6:4, 7:5 Paul; three sets is the alternative if Bonzi rides the crowd, and a win in three also counts.

Predicted score: 2:0; 6:4, 7:5
Alternative: 2:1; 6:4, 4:6, 6:3

No. 08 · Why this pick wins

Our Paul vs Bonzi pick: Tommy Paul win

Paul to win the match

Why we back it

We back Tommy Paul because the return game separates these two: over his last ten tour matches with stats Paul won 27.3% of his return games and converted 46.3% of his break points, Benjamin Bonzi 23.8% and 37.5%, while both held serve about 81% of the time. Paul is 40-14 as a favourite this season, reached the Shanghai quarter-finals last week and took a set off Daniil Medvedev there. He leads the head-to-head 3-0 without dropping a set. Dimers gives him 71% and Matchstat about 69%.

Our probability70–74%

Our pickTommy Paul win

Odds1.32

Main scenario2:0

Our scenario: 6:4, 7:52:0 in sets
Alternative: 6:4, 4:6, 6:32:1 in sets

What would change our mind Paul's price drifting above 1.45 before the start, or any news about his fitness.

No. 09 · Arguing against ourselves

What could beat our pick?

It is the last match of a long session in Lyon and the start can slip past 8:30 PM local time.
Bonzi plays at home and already has a match on this court, a win over Cameron Norrie.
Paul lost to Alejandro Tabilo 1:6, 2:6 as a favourite in Tokyo three weeks ago.

No. 10 · Our call

Bet

We back Paul to win the match: he is 40-14 as a favourite this season and leads Bonzi 3-0 without dropping a set.

Bet: Tommy Paul win
Odds at publish: 1.32 · 21 OCT 06:31 UK

Information only. No guarantees.18+Play responsibly