Double: Raptors vs Bulls + Rockets vs Mavericks

Why this betAn NBA double on the first full night of the season: the Toronto Raptors beat the Chicago Bulls and the Houston Rockets beat the Dallas Mavericks, both at home and overtime included. In both games the line, our rating card and ESPN's BPI, the model that rates this season's rosters, agree on a home win at 72 to 77%, and both visitors open without key players.

Leg 1 · Basketball · USA · NBA · 22 OCT · 00:30 UK

Raptors vs Bulls

Raptors win1.22Won

Why this pickToronto open with Kawhi Leonard back from the Clippers and only Nate Bittle on the official injury report. Chicago are rebuilt too, but their new centre Nic Claxton is out with a hamstring strain for at least two weeks, and Jordan Hawkins and Dailyn Swain are doubtful with illness. The line gives Toronto 77.1% with the margin removed and ESPN's BPI 75.7%, so the model that sees the new rosters agrees with the market. Last season Toronto were +2.8 a game, Chicago -5.2. We expect 121:108.

Predicted score · alt 114:110: 121:108
Our estimate · Toronto win: 74–78%

Form · Toronto 2-3 in their last 5. Chicago 3-2.

Toronto2-3

Lossvs Detroit125:129
Lossvs Knicks120:122
Winvs Knicks148:98
Winvs Clippers114:106
Lossvs Miami105:129

: 122.4
: 116.8
: 239.2
: +5.6

Chicago3-2

Winvs Minnesota133:116
Winvs Milwaukee125:104
Lossvs Denver128:133
Lossvs Memphis100:104
Winvs Phoenix124:117

: 122.0
: 114.8
: 236.8
: +7.2

Lineups · Expected

Toronto
OutNate BittleRight foot avulsion fracture

Chicago
OutNic ClaxtonLeft hamstring strain, re-evaluated in two weeks
QuestionableJordan HawkinsIllness, doubtful on the official report
QuestionableDailyn SwainIllness, doubtful on the official report
ProbableZach CollinsRight quadriceps strain
ProbableIsaac OkoroLeft patellar tendinopathy
ProbableLeonard MillerRight adductor strain
ProbableTobe AwakaLeft MCL sprain

What others predict · Consensus 2 of 2

Our positionWe agree. With the margin removed the line gives Toronto 77.1%, and ESPN's BPI, which rates this season's rosters, has 75.7%: the two numbers are close, unlike the opening-night game in New York, where BPI sat nine points below the line. Our own rating card still works from last season and gives 70%. We have 74 to 78%. We found only two outside predictions, so this rests mostly on the line, the official report and BPI.

Scenario & score

Leonard and Barnes against a Chicago front court without Claxton. 121:108 to Toronto is our main score: Leonard and Barnes attack a Chicago defence that opens without its new centre, and Toronto pull away in the second half. 114:110 to Toronto is the alternative: the new group is still raw, Powell and Hield keep Chicago close, and the game is decided late. The pick wins with any Toronto win, overtime included, and loses with a Chicago win. We take the win, not the −9.5 handicap, because a Toronto win by fewer than ten points is a realistic outcome.

Arguing against ourselves

01The first game of a season is the hardest to read, and Toronto's rebuilt group has not played a game that counts.
02Kawhi Leonard is available, but his minutes in the opener are not known.
03Our last-season rating card gives Toronto 70%, below the line: last season's Raptors were 46-36, a good team, not a dominant one.
04Chicago scored 116.3 points a game last season and added Powell and Hield; a shooting night can keep them in it.

Key factThere is no regular-season form yet: this is the first game of 2026-27 for both teams, and the results below are from preseason. Toronto went 2-3, with a 148:98 win over the Knicks on 13 Oct; Chicago went 3-2 and beat Minnesota 133:116 in their last game. Preseason says little. Last regular season Toronto were 46-36 with a +2.8 point difference per game and fifth in the East; Chicago were 31-51, -5.2 a game and twelfth.

Full match analysis

Leg 2 · Basketball · USA · NBA · 22 OCT · 01:30 UK

Rockets vs Mavericks

Rockets win1.27Won

Why this pickHouston keep the core of a 52-30 team that went 30-11 at home: Durant, Sengun, VanVleet and Thompson are all off the injury report. Dallas start without Dereck Lively II, Santi Aldama, Caleb Martin and Tarik Biberovic. The line has Houston at 74.5%, our rating card at 74% and ESPN's BPI at 71.8%. The risk is opening-night noise and Dallas' 132:115 win in preseason, which is why we take the win and not the −8.5 handicap. We expect 118:106.

Predicted score · alt 112:109: 118:106
Our estimate · Houston win: 72–76%

Form · Houston 2-1 in their last 3. Dallas 1-3.

Houston2-1

Winvs Oklahoma City116:89
Lossvs Dallas115:132
Winvs Dallas135:117

: 122.0
: 112.7
: 234.7
: +9.3

Dallas1-3

Lossvs Atlanta111:135
Lossvs New Orleans97:101
Winvs Houston132:115
Lossvs Houston117:135

: 114.3
: 121.5
: 235.8
: −7.3

Lineups · Expected

Houston
QuestionableSteven AdamsRight calf tightness
QuestionableJulian PhillipsIllness

Dallas
OutDereck Lively IIRight foot surgery
OutSanti AldamaRight knee surgery
OutCaleb MartinRight thumb sprain
OutTarik BiberovicRight heel bursitis
QuestionableJett HowardRight calf tightness

What others predict · Consensus 1 of 1

Our positionWe agree on the winner. With the margin removed the line has Houston at 74.5%, our rating card at 74% and ESPN's BPI, which rates the current rosters, at 71.8%: three numbers within three points. We have 72 to 76%. We found no written preview with a pick for this game and Dimers had not posted the night, so outside opinion is thin; the strength of this leg is that the line, the card and BPI point the same way.

Scenario & score

Houston's size against a Dallas front court without Lively and Aldama. 118:106 to Houston is our main score: Sengun, Adams or Capela and Durant control the paint and the boards against a Dallas side missing two of its big men, and Houston win by around ten. 112:109 to Houston is the alternative: Irving and Flagg carry Dallas, the first game of the season is ragged, and it goes to the last minutes. The pick wins with any Houston win, overtime included, and loses with a Dallas win. We take the win, not the −8.5 handicap, because the alternative score is a narrow Houston win.

Arguing against ourselves

01Outside predictions are thin: ESPN's BPI is the only model we found, and it sits 2.7 points below the line.
02Dallas with Flagg and Irving are not the 26-56 team of the table, and they beat Houston 132:115 in preseason.
03Opening night is the hardest game of the season to read.
04Houston were +5.2 a game last season: a strong team, not an overwhelming one.

Key factThere is no regular-season form yet: this is the first game of 2026-27 for both teams, and the results below are from preseason. The two sides met twice in preseason and split them, 135:117 to Houston and 132:115 to Dallas; Houston then beat Oklahoma City 116:89, while Dallas lost to New Orleans and Atlanta. Last regular season Houston were 52-30, +5.2 points a game and 30-11 at home; Dallas were 26-56, -5.5 a game and twelfth in the West.

Full match analysis