Toronto Raptors vs Chicago Bulls basketball prediction

No. 01 · The short versionIn our Double

Who will win Toronto vs Chicago?

Our Raptors vs Bulls prediction for the first night of the NBA season: the Toronto Raptors beat the Chicago Bulls at Scotiabank Arena, overtime included, and our main score is 121:108. Toronto start with Kawhi Leonard back on the roster and only Nate Bittle on the official injury report; Chicago are rebuilt too, but open without their new centre Nic Claxton and with two players doubtful through illness. The line and ESPN's BPI, which rates the new rosters, both give Toronto 76 to 77%. Toronto to win is one leg of our NBA double with Houston.

Predicted score · alt 114:110: 121:108
Our estimate: 74–78%

Toronto win · odds 1.22Our estimate, not a guarantee

Why this call18+Play responsibly

Market: Toronto win
Our bet: Double No. 129 · total odds 1.55
Leg odds: 1.22

Toronto vs Chicago at a glance

Match	Toronto Raptors vs Chicago Bulls
Competition	NBA · Regular season
Kick-off	22 OCT · 00:30 UK
Venue	Scotiabank Arena, Toronto
Our pick	Toronto win · 1.22 · Double No. 129 · total odds 1.55
Our estimate	74–78%
Predicted score	121:108
Main reason	We think Toronto with Leonard back are clearly stronger at home than a Chicago side that opens without its new centre and with two players doubtful.

No. 04 · Form

Toronto vs Chicago: recent form

Toronto 2-3 in their last 5. Chicago 3-2.

Toronto: First game of the season · last preseason game on Fri 16 Oct in Detroit, five days ago
Chicago: First game of the season · last preseason game on Sat 17 Oct, four days ago · trip from Chicago

Toronto2-3

Lossvs Detroit125:129
Lossvs Knicks120:122
Winvs Knicks148:98
Winvs Clippers114:106
Lossvs Miami105:129

: 122.4
: 116.8
: 239.2
: +5.6

Chicago3-2

Winvs Minnesota133:116
Winvs Milwaukee125:104
Lossvs Denver128:133
Lossvs Memphis100:104
Winvs Phoenix124:117

: 122.0
: 114.8
: 236.8
: +7.2

Key factThere is no regular-season form yet: this is the first game of 2026-27 for both teams, and the results below are from preseason. Toronto went 2-3, with a 148:98 win over the Knicks on 13 Oct; Chicago went 3-2 and beat Minnesota 133:116 in their last game. Preseason says little. Last regular season Toronto were 46-36 with a +2.8 point difference per game and fifth in the East; Chicago were 31-51, -5.2 a game and twelfth.

Last season	TOR	CHI
	46-36	31-51
Points for per game	114.6	116.3
Points against per game	111.8	121.5
Point difference per game	+2.8	-5.2
Home record	24-17	18-23
Conference seed	5	12

NBA 2025-26 regular season · ESPN standings

No. 05 · Injury reportExpected

Toronto vs Chicago injury report

Claxton out for Chicago, Toronto almost complete.

Toronto

OutNate BittleRight foot avulsion fracture

Chicago

OutNic ClaxtonLeft hamstring strain, re-evaluated in two weeks
QuestionableJordan HawkinsIllness, doubtful on the official report
QuestionableDailyn SwainIllness, doubtful on the official report
ProbableZach CollinsRight quadriceps strain
ProbableIsaac OkoroLeft patellar tendinopathy
ProbableLeonard MillerRight adductor strain
ProbableTobe AwakaLeft MCL sprain

TacticsThe official NBA injury report of 12:30 AM ET on 21 October lists one Raptor: Nate Bittle, out with a foot fracture. Kawhi Leonard, Scottie Barnes, RJ Barrett, Immanuel Quickley and Jakob Poeltl are not on it, so they are available. For Chicago, Nic Claxton is out with a hamstring strain and will be re-evaluated in two weeks (K.C. Johnson of Chicago Sports Network, via ESPN); Jordan Hawkins and Dailyn Swain are doubtful with illness, and Hawkins has been ruled out according to the same reporter. Zach Collins, Isaac Okoro, Leonard Miller and Tobe Awaka are probable. Both rosters changed in the summer: Toronto brought back Leonard from the Clippers, Chicago added Claxton, Norman Powell and Buddy Hield. Starting lineups are confirmed shortly before tip-off.

No. 06 · What others predictConsensus 2 of 2

Who do others back in Toronto vs Chicago?

Both previews we found back Toronto.

Source	Pick	Versus us
ESPN BPI	Raptors 75.7%	Same side
Sportsgambler	Raptors 123:110, and Toronto −9.5	Same side

Our positionWe agree. With the margin removed the line gives Toronto 77.1%, and ESPN's BPI, which rates this season's rosters, has 75.7%: the two numbers are close, unlike the opening-night game in New York, where BPI sat nine points below the line. Our own rating card still works from last season and gives 70%. We have 74 to 78%. We found only two outside predictions, so this rests mostly on the line, the official report and BPI.

No. 07 · Scenario & score

Toronto vs Chicago predicted score

Leonard and Barnes against a Chicago front court without Claxton.

121:108 to Toronto is our main score: Leonard and Barnes attack a Chicago defence that opens without its new centre, and Toronto pull away in the second half. 114:110 to Toronto is the alternative: the new group is still raw, Powell and Hield keep Chicago close, and the game is decided late. The pick wins with any Toronto win, overtime included, and loses with a Chicago win. We take the win, not the −9.5 handicap, because a Toronto win by fewer than ten points is a realistic outcome.

Predicted score: 121:108
Alternative: 114:110

No. 08 · Why this pick wins

Our Toronto vs Chicago pick: Toronto win

Toronto win: why this pick wins

Why we back it

We think Toronto with Leonard back are clearly stronger at home than a Chicago side that opens without its new centre and with two players doubtful. The line and ESPN's BPI, the model that sees the new rosters, agree on 76 to 77%, and we found no fact they have missed. Last season Toronto were +2.8 a game and Chicago -5.2. We take the simple win because a ten-point margin is not needed.

Our probability74–78%

Our pickToronto win

Leg odds1.22

Main scenario121:108

Our scenario: 121:108alternative 114:110

What would change our mind Leonard or Barnes on the injury report before tip-off, or the Toronto price drifting above about 1.30.

Odds and break-even, for reference

Market	Odds	Break-even
Toronto win	1.22	82%
Chicago win	4.11	24.3%
Toronto −9.5	1.84	54.3%
Chicago +9.5	1.87	53.5%
Over 236.5 points	1.90	52.6%
Under 236.5 points	1.87	53.5%

Odds snapshot 21 OCT 06:47 · no bookmaker names

No. 09 · Arguing against ourselves

What could beat our pick?

Why this could go wrong.

The first game of a season is the hardest to read, and Toronto's rebuilt group has not played a game that counts.
Kawhi Leonard is available, but his minutes in the opener are not known.
Our last-season rating card gives Toronto 70%, below the line: last season's Raptors were 46-36, a good team, not a dominant one.
Chicago scored 116.3 points a game last season and added Powell and Hield; a shooting night can keep them in it.

No. 10 · Editor’s call

Double

Toronto win is one leg of our double No. 129. We bet the double, not this match alone: total odds 1.55, 1.00 unit.

Leg 1: Raptors win @ 1.22
Leg 2: Rockets win @ 1.27
Total odds: 1.55 · 1.00 unit
Published: 21 OCT 06:40

Open double No. 129 →

Information only. No guarantees.18+Play responsibly

No. 11 · Update log

06:40Prediction published · Toronto win at 1.22, leg of the NBA double with Houston

No. 12 · After the match

We said: 121:108Bet at 1.22
Happened: 135:92Toronto win

Won

FAQ

What does Bet mean?

We expect this result and play it, as a single or as one leg of a double. It is logged in the tracker at the published odds.

How do you choose a pick?

We start from the market, then check a statistical model, named previews and our own scenario test against everything that moves the result: lineups, rest, motivation, style and team news. We publish when at least three of the four agree and the pick wins in the main scorelines. A warning sign, such as a back-up goalie or tired legs, moves us to a safer market or leaves the match as analysis only.

Can a prediction change after publishing?

No. The pick, odds and time are locked when published. Updates go into the log above.

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