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Single · No. 134 · 22 OCTLost

Atmane vs Bellucci

  1. 01Terence Atmane vs Mattia BellucciMattia Bellucci win1.80 · Lost
Total odds
1.80
Stake
1.00 unit
P&L
-1.00 unit
Our estimate
54–56%
Published 21 OCT 18:40
Odds: bookmakers' average, 21 OCT 18:4018+Play responsibly
Why this betA single on Mattia Bellucci to beat Terence Atmane in the second round of the Almaty Open. Bellucci, ranked 68, has won six matches in a row, including the Jinan Challenger title on Sunday and a three-set win over Tomas Martin Etcheverry here on Wednesday. Atmane retired from two of his four matches before Almaty.
Leg 1 · Tennis · ATP · Almaty Open, Almaty · 22 OCT · 07:30 UK

Terence Atmane vs Mattia Bellucci

Mattia Bellucci win1.80Lost
Why this pickBellucci is the better returner: over his last ten tour matches with stats he won 18.9% of his return games and 35.0% of return points, Atmane 13.7% and 30.2%, while both hold serve well indoors (82.4% and 86.8%). Atmane retired against Elias Ymer on 30 September and against Bernard Tomic on 5 October, then had two weeks off before beating Rinky Hijikata on Tuesday. Dimers gives Bellucci 54% and Scores24 picks him. The risks: Bellucci plays a second day in a row, his fifth match in seven days, and the Elo rating prefers Atmane. We expect Bellucci in three sets.
Predicted score
1:2
Our estimate
54–56%

Form · Bellucci has won six in a row, including the Jinan Challenger title; Atmane beat Rinky Hijikata in straight sets

Terence AtmaneLast 10: 5-5
  1. Won v Fucsovics M. 3-1 ret.
  2. Won v Etcheverry T. 6-3, 7-6(4)
  3. Lost to Zverev A. 7-6(4), 7-6(6)
  4. Lost to Munar J. 6(5)-7, 3-6, 6-1, 7-6(4), 7-5
  5. Lost to Faria J. 3-6, 7-6(9), 6-4
  6. Won v Palan D. 6-1, 6-4
  7. Won v Aguiard E. 6-4, 6-4
  8. Lost to Ymer E. 4-6, 7-5, 5-5 ret.
  9. Lost to Tomic B. 6-3, 4-6, 5-3 ret.
  10. Won v Hijikata R. 7-6(5), 6-2
Mattia BellucciLast 10: 8-2
  1. Won v Erel Y. 6-4, 6-4
  2. Lost to Harris L. 1-6, 6-3, 7-6(4)
  3. Won v Ymer E. 4-6, 7-5, 7-6(3)
  4. Won v Muller A. 6-4, 6-2
  5. Lost to Zhou Y. 6-4, 3-6, 7-6(4)
  6. Won v Ymer E. 6-2, 6-1
  7. Won v Pavlovic L. 6-4, 6-4
  8. Won v Shevchenko A. 6-4, 6-4
  9. Won v Mochizuki S. 6-2, 7-6(2)
  10. Won v Landaluce M. 6-2, 4-6, 6-3

Stats comparison

StatAtmaneBellucci
On hard courts15-1628-17
Last 10 matches5-58-2
Service games held86.8%82.4%
Return games won13.7%18.9%

Our scenario

6:7, 6:3, 4:6 1:2 in sets

Bellucci in three sets. Both serve well indoors: Atmane held 86.8% of his service games over his last ten tour matches with stats, Bellucci 82.4%. Bellucci, a left-hander, is the better returner (35.0% of return points won against 30.2%), so we expect few breaks and tie-breaks to decide sets. We see 6:7, 6:3, 6:4 Bellucci; an Atmane win on serve is the alternative. A Bellucci win in two or three sets wins the bet.

Arguing against ourselves

  1. 01Bellucci plays a second day in a row, his fifth match in seven days, after a flight from China.
  2. 02The fresh Elo rating prefers Atmane, 52.8% to 47.2%, and Tennis Abstract's forecast has him at 53%.
  3. 03Atmane won their only meeting and holds 86.8% of his service games.
Bellucci this monthHe won the Jinan Challenger on 18 October with five wins, beating Martin Landaluce 6:2, 4:6, 6:3 in the final, then beat Tomas Martin Etcheverry 7:6, 2:6, 6:4 in the first round here on Wednesday. In Shanghai he came through qualifying and lost to Zhou Yi in a final-set tie-break.
Full match analysis