Atmane vs Bellucci prediction · Almaty Open

No. 01 · The short versionBet

Who will win Atmane vs Bellucci?

Mattia Bellucci plays Terence Atmane in the second round of the Almaty Open on Thursday, the first match on Center Court. Our bet: Bellucci to win, most likely in three sets.

Predicted score: 1:2
Our estimate: 54–56%

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Our pick: Mattia Bellucci win
Odds at publish: 1.80
Set by set: 6:7, 6:3, 4:6
Not before (UK): 07:30

Atmane vs Bellucci at a glance

Match	Terence Atmane vs Mattia Bellucci
Tournament	ATP · Almaty Open, Almaty · Second round
Surface	Indoor hard
Start	22 OCT · 07:30 UK · 11:30 local
Court	Center Court · First match on court
Our pick	Mattia Bellucci win · 1.80 · bet
Our estimate	54–56%
Predicted score	1:2 (6:7, 6:3, 4:6)
Main reason	We back Mattia Bellucci because he arrives as the in-form player of the two.

No. 02 · Form

Atmane vs Bellucci: recent form

Bellucci has won six in a row, including the Jinan Challenger title; Atmane beat Rinky Hijikata in straight sets

Terence AtmaneLast 10: 5-5

Won v Fucsovics M. 3-1 ret.
Won v Etcheverry T. 6-3, 7-6(4)
Lost to Zverev A. 7-6(4), 7-6(6)
Lost to Munar J. 6(5)-7, 3-6, 6-1, 7-6(4), 7-5
Lost to Faria J. 3-6, 7-6(9), 6-4
Won v Palan D. 6-1, 6-4
Won v Aguiard E. 6-4, 6-4
Lost to Ymer E. 4-6, 7-5, 5-5 ret.
Lost to Tomic B. 6-3, 4-6, 5-3 ret.
Won v Hijikata R. 7-6(5), 6-2

Mattia BellucciLast 10: 8-2

Won v Erel Y. 6-4, 6-4
Lost to Harris L. 1-6, 6-3, 7-6(4)
Won v Ymer E. 4-6, 7-5, 7-6(3)
Won v Muller A. 6-4, 6-2
Lost to Zhou Y. 6-4, 3-6, 7-6(4)
Won v Ymer E. 6-2, 6-1
Won v Pavlovic L. 6-4, 6-4
Won v Shevchenko A. 6-4, 6-4
Won v Mochizuki S. 6-2, 7-6(2)
Won v Landaluce M. 6-2, 4-6, 6-3

Last ten results, oldest to newest; the ringed one is the latest. Tap a result for the opponent and score.

Show the matches

Terence Atmane
Won v	Hijikata R.Almaty · 20.10.26	7-6(5), 6-2
Lost to	Tomic B.Shanghai · 05.10.26	6-3, 4-6, 5-3 ret.
Lost to	Ymer E.Jingshan challenger · 30.09.26	4-6, 7-5, 5-5 ret.
Won v	Aguiard E.Jingshan challenger · 29.09.26	6-4, 6-4
Won v	Palan D.Jingshan challenger · 28.09.26	6-1, 6-4
Lost to	Faria J.Hangzhou · 24.09.26	3-6, 7-6(9), 6-4
Lost to	Munar J.US Open · 30.08.26	6(5)-7, 3-6, 6-1, 7-6(4), 7-5
Lost to	Zverev A.Cincinnati · 18.08.26	7-6(4), 7-6(6)
Won v	Etcheverry T.Cincinnati · 15.08.26	6-3, 7-6(4)
Won v	Fucsovics M.Cincinnati · 14.08.26	3-1 ret.

Mattia Bellucci
Won v	Landaluce M.Jinan challenger · 18.10.26	6-2, 4-6, 6-3
Won v	Mochizuki S.Jinan challenger · 17.10.26	6-2, 7-6(2)
Won v	Shevchenko A.Jinan challenger · 16.10.26	6-4, 6-4
Won v	Pavlovic L.Jinan challenger · 15.10.26	6-4, 6-4
Won v	Ymer E.Jinan challenger · 13.10.26	6-2, 6-1
Lost to	Zhou Y.Shanghai · 07.10.26	6-4, 3-6, 7-6(4)
Won v	Muller A.Shanghai · 06.10.26	6-4, 6-2
Won v	Ymer E.Shanghai · 05.10.26	4-6, 7-5, 7-6(3)
Lost to	Harris L.Jingshan challenger · 04.10.26	1-6, 6-3, 7-6(4)
Won v	Erel Y.Jingshan challenger · 03.10.26	6-4, 6-4

Bellucci this monthHe won the Jinan Challenger on 18 October with five wins, beating Martin Landaluce 6:2, 4:6, 6:3 in the final, then beat Tomas Martin Etcheverry 7:6, 2:6, 6:4 in the first round here on Wednesday. In Shanghai he came through qualifying and lost to Zhou Yi in a final-set tie-break.

No. 03 · Context

The opening match on Center Court in Almaty, a place in the quarter-finals at stake

Atmane this month: He beat Rinky Hijikata 7:6, 6:2 in the first round here on Tuesday. Before that he retired against Bernard Tomic in Shanghai qualifying on 5 October (3:6, 6:4, 3:5) and against Elias Ymer at the Jingshan Challenger on 30 September (6:4, 5:7, 5:5). The reason was not reported.
Season and surface: Bellucci is 41-28 this season, 28-17 on hard courts and 28-8 as a favourite. Atmane is 20-27 and 15-16 on hard courts.
Head to head: Atmane won their only meeting 7:6, 6:4 in Australian Open qualifying in January 2025.
Rest and travel: Bellucci plays a second day in a row after three sets on Wednesday, his fifth match and twelfth set in seven days, after a flight from China. Atmane had Wednesday off and one match in the last fourteen days.

No. 04 · Stats comparison

Bellucci won 18.9% of his return games over his last ten tour matches with stats, Atmane 13.7%

Stat	Atmane	Bellucci
Season record	20-27	41-28 (better)
On hard courts	15-16	28-17 (better)
Last 10 matches	5-5	8-2 (better)
As favourite	7-9	28-8 (better)
As underdog	13-18 (better)	13-20

Stat	Atmane	Bellucci
Matches counted	10 (5-5)	10 (5-5)
Aces per match	8.0	8.9 (better)
Double faults per match	3.7 (better)	2.8
1st serve in	60.4%	61.3% (better)
1st serve points won	77.4% (better)	74.4%
2nd serve points won	52.6% (better)	50.3%
Service games held	86.8% (better)	82.4%
Break points saved	68.4%	69.7% (better)

Stat	Atmane	Bellucci
Return points won	30.2%	35.0% (better)
Return games won	13.7%	18.9% (better)
Break points converted	48.6% (better)	32.9%

Form rows: 2026 season to 21 October. Serve and return: last 10 tour-level matches with stats: Terence Atmane 27.07.2026–19.10.2026, Mattia Bellucci 13.08.2026–19.10.2026. We read the data from Tennis Explorer, Tennis Abstract and the WTA and ATP tours, and form our own view.

No. 05 · Head to head1 meetings

Atmane leads 1-0

2025

AtmaneAustralian Open · Hard · Q2

7-6(7) 6-4

No. 06 · What others predictConsensus 2 of 3

Who do others back in Atmane vs Bellucci?

Source	Their view	Versus us
Dimers	Bellucci, 54%	Same side
Scores24	Bellucci to win	Same side
Tennis Abstract	Atmane, 53% (tournament forecast)	Other side

Our position2 of 3 back Bellucci. We are on Bellucci’s side.

No. 07 · Scenario & score

Atmane vs Bellucci predicted score

Bellucci in three sets

Both serve well indoors: Atmane held 86.8% of his service games over his last ten tour matches with stats, Bellucci 82.4%. Bellucci, a left-hander, is the better returner (35.0% of return points won against 30.2%), so we expect few breaks and tie-breaks to decide sets. We see 6:7, 6:3, 6:4 Bellucci; an Atmane win on serve is the alternative. A Bellucci win in two or three sets wins the bet.

Predicted score: 1:2; 6:7, 6:3, 4:6
Alternative: 2:1; 7:6, 4:6, 6:4

No. 08 · Why this pick wins

Our Atmane vs Bellucci pick: Mattia Bellucci win

Bellucci to win the match

Why we back it

We back Mattia Bellucci because he arrives as the in-form player of the two. He has won six matches in a row: five for the Jinan Challenger title on Sunday and Tomas Martin Etcheverry 7:6, 2:6, 6:4 here on Wednesday, against a higher-rated opponent than Terence Atmane. Atmane retired during two of his four matches before Almaty, on 30 September and 5 October, and then did not play for two weeks. On the return, Bellucci broke in 18.9% of his return games over his last ten tour matches with stats, Atmane in 13.7%. Dimers gives Bellucci 54%, and Scores24 also picks him.

Our probability54–56%

Our pickMattia Bellucci win

Odds1.80

Main scenario1:2

Our scenario: 6:7, 6:3, 4:61:2 in sets
Alternative: 7:6, 4:6, 6:42:1 in sets

What would change our mind A medical time-out or any fitness news about Bellucci before the start, or his price drifting above 2.10.

No. 09 · Arguing against ourselves

What could beat our pick?

Bellucci plays a second day in a row, his fifth match in seven days, after a flight from China.
The fresh Elo rating prefers Atmane, 52.8% to 47.2%, and Tennis Abstract's forecast has him at 53%.
Atmane won their only meeting and holds 86.8% of his service games.

No. 10 · Our call

Bet

We back Bellucci to win: six straight wins, a Challenger title on Sunday, and an opponent who retired from two of his four matches before Almaty.

Bet: Mattia Bellucci win
Odds at publish: 1.80 · 21 OCT 18:27 UK

Information only. No guarantees.18+Play responsibly