Single · No. 136 · 22 OCTPending
Bournemouth vs Milan
- 01Bournemouth vs MilanBoth teams to score1.61
- Total odds
- 1.61
- Stake
- 1.00 unit
- Our estimate
- 59–61%
Published 22 OCT 06:25
Odds: average of 9 popular bookmakers, 22 OCT 06:2818+Play responsibly
Odds: average of 9 popular bookmakers, 22 OCT 06:2818+Play responsibly
Why this betA one-unit single on both teams to score when Bournemouth host AC Milan in the Europa League. Both sides create two expected goals a game in their leagues and allow more than 1.2, and each failed to score only once in its last ten games. We stay off the winner and back a goal at each end. Our main score is 2:1.
Leg 1 · Football · Europe · Europa League · 22 OCT · 20:00 UK
Bournemouth vs Milan
Both teams to score1.61
Why this pickBoth teams scored in six of the last ten games of each side. Bournemouth create 2.02 expected goals a game in the Premier League and allow 1.21; Milan create 2.02 in Serie A and allow 1.31 (Understat). Bournemouth shoot 17.6 times a game at home over ten games and took 29 shots against Sunderland on Sunday; Milan scored three against Atalanta and four at Salzburg. Bournemouth miss Kroupi and Scott, Milan miss Gonçalo Ramos, and each side kept three clean sheets in ten: that is the risk, and The Hard Tackle lists 0:0 among its scores.
- Predicted score · alt 1:1
- 2:1
- Our estimate · Both teams to score
- 59–61%
Form · Bournemouth 9 from 15. Milan 10 from 15.
Bournemouth9 pts
- Winvs Sunderland2:0
- Winvs Sturm Graz3:0
- Lossvs Chelsea1:5
- Lossvs Liverpool0:1
- Winvs Real Sociedad2:1
- Goals scored per game in these matches.
- 1.60
- Goals conceded per game in these matches.
- 1.40
- Share of these matches with three or more goals.
- 60%
- Both teams to score: share of these matches in which both sides scored.
- 40%
Milan10 pts
- Winvs Atalanta3:2
- Winvs RB Salzburg4:0
- Drawvs Sassuolo1:1
- Winvs Lecce3:0
- Lossvs Benfica0:2
- Goals scored per game in these matches.
- 2.20
- Goals conceded per game in these matches.
- 1.00
- Share of these matches with three or more goals.
- 60%
- Both teams to score: share of these matches in which both sides scored.
- 40%
Lineups · Expected
- Bournemouth
- OutJulian AraujoInjury
- OutAlex ScottInjury
- OutEli Junior KroupiInjury
- OutForsterNot registered for the Europa League
- OutAaronsNot registered for the Europa League
- OutJuanlu SánchezNot registered for the Europa League
- OutJebbisonNot registered for the Europa League
- OutMilosavljevićNot registered for the Europa League
- Milan
- OutGabbiaInjury
- OutSaelemaekersInjury
- OutGonçalo RamosInjury
- OutChukwuezeInjury
- OutTerraccianoSuspended (sent off against Salzburg)
- OutBondoNot registered for the Europa League
What others predict · Consensus 2 of 3
Our positionFootball Whispers' 2:1 is our score. Tips.gg also backs both teams to score and over 2.5 goals, and LiveScore picks Cissè to score for Milan. The Hard Tackle is the case against: it rates Milan's defence highly and lists 0:0 among its scores, though its 1:1 and 1:2 would win our bet.
Scenario & score
Bournemouth press and cross, Milan hit on the break. Bournemouth will push Milan back with long balls, crosses and set pieces, the way they took 29 shots against Sunderland, and they do not know how to play for 0:0. Milan will let them have the ball and break through Cissè, as in the 4:0 at Salzburg and the 3:2 against Atalanta. Both defences concede more than 1.2 expected goals a game in their leagues. 2:1 is our main score and 1:1 the alternative. Both teams to score wins with 2:1, 1:1, 2:2 or any score where both sides find the net, and loses with 1:0, 2:0, 0:1 or 0:0.
Arguing against ourselves
- 01The Hard Tackle rates Milan's defence as the strongest argument against goals and lists 0:0 among its scores.
- 02Each team kept three clean sheets in its last ten games, more than our main rule for this market allows.
- 03Bournemouth are without Kroupi and Scott, Milan without Gonçalo Ramos.
- 04Bournemouth score less than they create: nine goals from their chances in seven Premier League games.
Key factBournemouth beat Sunderland 2:0 on Sunday with 29 shots and 4.32 expected goals (The Hard Tackle), after a 3:0 against Sturm Graz in the Europa League, a 1:5 at Chelsea, 0:1 against Liverpool and a 2:1 win at Real Sociedad (ESPN). In the Premier League they create 2.02 expected goals a game and allow 1.21, but have six points where their chances are worth 12.3 (Understat): they score less than they create. At home they shoot 17.6 times a game over their last ten. Milan beat Atalanta 3:2 on Sunday after winning 4:0 at Salzburg, a 1:1 at Sassuolo, 3:0 against Lecce and a 0:2 home defeat to Benfica. In Serie A they create 2.02 expected goals and allow 1.31 (Understat; The Hard Tackle gives 0.89 allowed, the sources count differently). Over ten games both teams scored in six of Bournemouth's matches and over 2.5 goals came in seven; for Milan it was six and six. Each kept three clean sheets and failed to score once.
Full match analysis