Sarri calls the calendar absurd after Raspadori limps off. Milan are next
Our take A fair complaint that doubles as an alibi
Football · Europe · Europa League · League phase, matchday 3 · Bournemouth
BournemouthvsMilan AFC Bournemouth vs AC Milan · prediction
Kick-off
20:00
Date
22 OCT
City
Bournemouth
Status
Pre-lineups
BOU20:00MILPre-lineups
No. 01 · The short versionBet
Who will win Bournemouth vs Milan?
Our Bournemouth vs AC Milan prediction is both teams to score, most likely 2:1, at the Vitality Stadium on Thursday (20:00 UK). It is Bournemouth's first European season and Milan's first visit to the Vitality. Both sides create 2.02 expected goals a game in their leagues (Understat), both teams scored in six of the last ten games of each, and each has failed to score only once in that run. Bournemouth have six points from two Europa League games, Milan three after a 0:2 at home to Benfica and a 4:0 at Salzburg.
- Predicted score · alt 1:1
- 2:1
- Our estimate
- 59–61%
- Market
- Both teams to score
- Price now
- 1.61
Bournemouth vs Milan at a glance
| Match | AFC Bournemouth vs AC Milan |
|---|---|
| Competition | UEFA Europa League · League phase, matchday 3 |
| Kick-off | 22 OCT · 20:00 UK · 20:00 Bournemouth |
| Venue | Vitality Stadium, Bournemouth |
| Our pick | Both teams to score · 1.61 · bet |
| Our estimate | 59–61% |
| Predicted score | 2:1 |
| Main reason | We do not need a winner here, we need a goal at each end, and both teams play the kind of football that gives one. |
No. 04 · Form
Bournemouth vs Milan: recent form
Bournemouth 9 from 15. Milan 10 from 15.
Bournemouth9 pts
- Winvs Sunderland2:0
- Winvs Sturm Graz3:0
- Lossvs Chelsea1:5
- Lossvs Liverpool0:1
- Winvs Real Sociedad2:1
- Goals scored per game in these matches.
- 1.60
- Goals conceded per game in these matches.
- 1.40
- Share of these matches with three or more goals.
- 60%
- Both teams to score: share of these matches in which both sides scored.
- 40%
Milan10 pts
- Winvs Atalanta3:2
- Winvs RB Salzburg4:0
- Drawvs Sassuolo1:1
- Winvs Lecce3:0
- Lossvs Benfica0:2
- Goals scored per game in these matches.
- 2.20
- Goals conceded per game in these matches.
- 1.00
- Share of these matches with three or more goals.
- 60%
- Both teams to score: share of these matches in which both sides scored.
- 40%
Key factBournemouth beat Sunderland 2:0 on Sunday with 29 shots and 4.32 expected goals (The Hard Tackle), after a 3:0 against Sturm Graz in the Europa League, a 1:5 at Chelsea, 0:1 against Liverpool and a 2:1 win at Real Sociedad (ESPN). In the Premier League they create 2.02 expected goals a game and allow 1.21, but have six points where their chances are worth 12.3 (Understat): they score less than they create. At home they shoot 17.6 times a game over their last ten. Milan beat Atalanta 3:2 on Sunday after winning 4:0 at Salzburg, a 1:1 at Sassuolo, 3:0 against Lecce and a 0:2 home defeat to Benfica. In Serie A they create 2.02 expected goals and allow 1.31 (Understat; The Hard Tackle gives 0.89 allowed, the sources count differently). Over ten games both teams scored in six of Bournemouth's matches and over 2.5 goals came in seven; for Milan it was six and six. Each kept three clean sheets and failed to score once.
No. 05 · LineupsExpected
Bournemouth vs Milan team news
Bournemouth without Kroupi and Scott, Milan without Gonçalo Ramos.
Bournemouth
- OutJulian AraujoInjury
- OutAlex ScottInjury
- OutEli Junior KroupiInjury
- OutForsterNot registered for the Europa League
- OutAaronsNot registered for the Europa League
- OutJuanlu SánchezNot registered for the Europa League
- OutJebbisonNot registered for the Europa League
- OutMilosavljevićNot registered for the Europa League
Milan
- OutGabbiaInjury
- OutSaelemaekersInjury
- OutGonçalo RamosInjury
- OutChukwuezeInjury
- OutTerraccianoSuspended (sent off against Salzburg)
- OutBondoNot registered for the Europa League
TacticsThe Hard Tackle and Sempre Milan agree on both lists. Marco Rose's Bournemouth are without Julian Araujo, Alex Scott and Eli Junior Kroupi through injury, and Forster, Aarons, Juanlu Sánchez, Jebbison and Milosavljević are not registered for the Europa League. Rúben Amorim's Milan miss Gabbia, Saelemaekers, Gonçalo Ramos and Chukwueze through injury, Terracciano is suspended after his red card at Salzburg and Bondo is not registered. Milan's goals on the break rest on Cissè, with Gimenez and Camarda the other forwards. Both teams play away in their leagues on Sunday, Bournemouth at Manchester United and Milan at Udinese, so some rotation is possible on both sides. Line-ups are confirmed about an hour before kick-off.
In the news
Report: Milan are unbeaten, and Cardinale still left Sassuolo angry with Amorim
Our take Amorim survives until winter at least
No. 06 · What others predictConsensus 2 of 3
Who do others back in Bournemouth vs Milan?
Most previews see a goal at both ends; one sees a tight game.
| Source | Pick |
|---|---|
| Football Whispers | Bournemouth 2:1 AC Milan |
| The Hard Tackle | Draw: 1:1, 0:0 or 1:2 |
| Sportytrader | Bournemouth to win |
Our positionFootball Whispers' 2:1 is our score. Tips.gg also backs both teams to score and over 2.5 goals, and LiveScore picks Cissè to score for Milan. The Hard Tackle is the case against: it rates Milan's defence highly and lists 0:0 among its scores, though its 1:1 and 1:2 would win our bet.
No. 07 · Scenario & score
Bournemouth vs Milan predicted score
Bournemouth press and cross, Milan hit on the break.
Bournemouth will push Milan back with long balls, crosses and set pieces, the way they took 29 shots against Sunderland, and they do not know how to play for 0:0. Milan will let them have the ball and break through Cissè, as in the 4:0 at Salzburg and the 3:2 against Atalanta. Both defences concede more than 1.2 expected goals a game in their leagues. 2:1 is our main score and 1:1 the alternative. Both teams to score wins with 2:1, 1:1, 2:2 or any score where both sides find the net, and loses with 1:0, 2:0, 0:1 or 0:0.
- Predicted score
- 2:1
- Alternative
- 1:1
Your score
BOU
MIL
No. 08 · Why this pick wins
Our Bournemouth vs Milan pick: Both teams to score
Both teams to score: why this pick wins
Why we back it
We do not need a winner here, we need a goal at each end, and both teams play the kind of football that gives one. Each creates two expected goals a game in its league and each allows more than 1.2, Bournemouth shoot 17 times a game at home, and Milan failed to score only once in ten games. Both teams scored in six of the last ten for each side. We expect an open game: Bournemouth push forward from the start, and Milan, who scored three against Atalanta and four in Salzburg, find goals on the counter.
Our probability59–61%
Our pickBoth teams to score
Odds1.61
Main scenario2:1
- Wins with
- 1:12:11:22:23:13:2…
- Loses with
- 1:02:00:00:13:00:2…
- Our scenario
- 2:1alternative 1:1
What would change our mind If Milan start with Gimenez and Camarda on the bench and without Cissè, we would drop both teams to score.
Odds and break-even, for reference
| Market | Odds | Break-even |
|---|---|---|
| Bournemouth win | 1.97 | 50.8% |
| Draw | 3.72 | 26.9% |
| Milan win | 3.49 | 28.7% |
| Bournemouth or draw | 1.29 | 77.5% |
| Milan or draw | 1.80 | 55.6% |
| Both teams to score | 1.61 | 62.1% |
| Both teams not to score | 2.23 | 44.8% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.67 | 59.9% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.15 | 46.5% |
Odds snapshot 22 OCT 06:28 · no bookmaker names
No. 09 · Arguing against ourselves
What could beat our pick?
Why one side could stay at zero.
- The Hard Tackle rates Milan's defence as the strongest argument against goals and lists 0:0 among its scores.
- Each team kept three clean sheets in its last ten games, more than our main rule for this market allows.
- Bournemouth are without Kroupi and Scott, Milan without Gonçalo Ramos.
- Bournemouth score less than they create: nine goals from their chances in seven Premier League games.
No. 10 · Editor’s call
Bet
Bet Both teams to score at 1.61, a single for one unit. Any score where both teams find the net takes it; a clean sheet for either side loses it.
Information only. No guarantees.18+Play responsibly
No. 11 · Update log
- Prediction published · Both teams to score at 1.61
No. 12 · After the match
After full time this ticket shows what we said next to what happened. The record goes to the public tracker automatically.
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FAQ
What does Bet mean?
We expect this result and play it, as a single or as one leg of a double. It is logged in the tracker at the published odds.
How do you choose a pick?
We start from the market, then check a statistical model, named previews and our own scenario test against everything that moves the result: lineups, rest, motivation, style and team news. We publish when at least three of the four agree and the pick wins in the main scorelines. A warning sign, such as a back-up goalie or tired legs, moves us to a safer market or leaves the match as analysis only.
Can a prediction change after publishing?
No. The pick, odds and time are locked when published. Updates go into the log above.