Rublev vs Mannarino prediction · Almaty Open

No. 01 · The short versionIn our Double

Who will win Rublev vs Mannarino?

Andrey Rublev, the fourth seed, opens his Almaty Open against Adrian Mannarino in the second round on Wednesday. Our bet: Rublev to win, most likely in two sets.

Predicted score: 2:0
Our estimate: 72–76%

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Our pick: Andrey Rublev win
Our bet: Double No. 126 · total odds 1.63
Leg odds: 1.27
Set by set: 6:4, 6:3
Not before (UK): 07:30

Rublev vs Mannarino at a glance

Match	Andrey Rublev vs Adrian Mannarino
Tournament	ATP · Almaty Open, Almaty · Second round
Surface	Indoor hard
Start	21 OCT · 07:30 UK · 11:30 local
Court	Center Court · Third match on court, after Nurlanuly v Machac
Our pick	Andrey Rublev win · 1.27 · bet
Our estimate	72–76%
Predicted score	2:0 (6:4, 6:3)
Main reason	We back Andrey Rublev because the line, our fresh Elo calculation and the Dimers model all put him between 72% and 75%, and every preview we found picks him.

No. 02 · Form

Rublev vs Mannarino: recent form

Rublev has lost his last two; Mannarino beat Aleksandar Vukic in three sets on Monday

Andrey RublevLast 10: 6-4

Won v Virtanen O. 6(5)-7, 6(0)-7, 6-0, 6-2, 7-6(5)
Lost to Merida Aguilar D. 6(3)-7, 6-2, 6-4, 6-4
Won v Hijikata R. 6-3, 6-3
Won v Gaston H. 6(6)-7, 7-6(4), 6-1
Won v Jacquet K. 7-6(0), 6-1
Lost to Medvedev D. 7-5, 6-4
Won v Griekspoor T. 6-4, 5-7, 7-6(6)
Won v Safiullin R. 6-2, 3-6, 6-4
Lost to De Minaur A. 1-6, 6-2, 6-3
Lost to Sakamoto R. 6-4, 6-4

Adrian MannarinoLast 10: 6-4

Lost to Bobichon M. 6-3, 7-5
Won v Shang J. 7-6(9), 6-2
Won v Tabilo A. 6-4, 6-4
Lost to Shapovalov D. 6(6)-7, 6-3, 6-2
Won v Kecmanovic M. 7-6(6), 3-6, 7-6(5)
Lost to Carreno-Busta P. 6-3, 6-4
Won v Basilashvili N. 6-3, 2-2 ret.
Won v Cobolli F. 6-1, 4-6, 6-3
Lost to Khachanov K. 6-2, 6-4
Won v Vukic A. 7-6(4), 4-6, 6-3

Last ten results, oldest to newest; the ringed one is the latest. Tap a result for the opponent and score.

Show the matches

Andrey Rublev
Lost to	Sakamoto R.Shanghai · 09.10.26	6-4, 6-4
Lost to	De Minaur A.Beijing · 04.10.26	1-6, 6-2, 6-3
Won v	Safiullin R.Beijing · 03.10.26	6-2, 3-6, 6-4
Won v	Griekspoor T.Beijing · 01.10.26	6-4, 5-7, 7-6(6)
Lost to	Medvedev D.Hangzhou · 29.09.26	7-5, 6-4
Won v	Jacquet K.Hangzhou · 28.09.26	7-6(0), 6-1
Won v	Gaston H.Hangzhou · 27.09.26	6(6)-7, 7-6(4), 6-1
Won v	Hijikata R.Hangzhou · 25.09.26	6-3, 6-3
Lost to	Merida Aguilar D.US Open · 02.09.26	6(3)-7, 6-2, 6-4, 6-4
Won v	Virtanen O.US Open · 31.08.26	6(5)-7, 6(0)-7, 6-0, 6-2, 7-6(5)

Adrian Mannarino
Won v	Vukic A.Almaty · 19.10.26	7-6(4), 4-6, 6-3
Lost to	Khachanov K.Shanghai · 11.10.26	6-2, 6-4
Won v	Cobolli F.Shanghai · 09.10.26	6-1, 4-6, 6-3
Won v	Basilashvili N.Shanghai · 07.10.26	6-3, 2-2 ret.
Lost to	Carreno-Busta P.Beijing · 29.09.26	6-3, 6-4
Won v	Kecmanovic M.Beijing · 28.09.26	7-6(6), 3-6, 7-6(5)
Lost to	Shapovalov D.Chengdu · 27.09.26	6(6)-7, 6-3, 6-2
Won v	Tabilo A.Chengdu · 25.09.26	6-4, 6-4
Won v	Shang J.Chengdu · 24.09.26	7-6(9), 6-2
Lost to	Bobichon M.Rennes challenger · 17.09.26	6-3, 7-5

Rublev this autumnHe reached the Hangzhou final in September and lost it to Daniil Medvedev 5:7, 4:6. In Beijing he beat Tallon Griekspoor and Roman Safiullin before losing to Alex de Minaur in the quarter-finals; in Shanghai he lost his opener to Rei Sakamoto 4:6, 4:6 on 9 October.

No. 03 · Context

The fourth seed starts his week in Almaty against a 38-year-old left-hander

Mannarino this autumn: He beat Aleksandar Vukic 7:6(4), 4:6, 6:3 in the first round here on Monday. In Shanghai he beat Nikoloz Basilashvili, who retired, and Flavio Cobolli in three sets, then lost to Karen Khachanov 2:6, 4:6.
Season and surface: Rublev is 35-22 this season, 18-13 on hard courts and 34-15 as a favourite. Mannarino is 22-32 overall, 16-19 on hard courts and 11-26 as an underdog.
Head-to-head: Rublev leads 4-1. He won at Wimbledon in 2025 (7:5, 6:2, 6:3), in Shanghai in 2023 (6:3, 6:0) and in Astana in 2022 (6:1, 6:2); Mannarino's only win came in Moscow in 2021.
Rest: Rublev had a first-round bye and has not played since 9 October, twelve days. Mannarino played three sets on Monday and rested on Tuesday.

No. 04 · Stats comparison

Rublev held 86% of his service games over his last ten tour matches with stats, Mannarino 81.2%

Stat	Rublev	Mannarino
Season record	35-22 (better)	22-32
On hard courts	18-13 (better)	16-19
Last 10 matches	6-4	6-4
As favourite	34-15 (better)	11-6
As underdog	0-7	11-26 (better)

Stat	Rublev	Mannarino
Matches (W-L)	10 (6-4)	10 (6-4)
Aces per match	11.2 (better)	6.8
Double faults per match	2.4	0.8 (better)
1st serve in	63.6%	67.8% (better)
1st serve points won	78.6% (better)	73.8%
2nd serve points won	50.5%	54.2% (better)
Service games held	86.0% (better)	81.2%
Break points saved	61.5% (better)	55.1%

Stat	Rublev	Mannarino
Return points won	36.8% (better)	36.2%
Return games won	17.6% (better)	16.9%
Break points converted	26.3%	30.8% (better)

Form rows: 2026 season to 20 October. Serve and return: last 10 tour-level matches with stats: Andrey Rublev 31.08.2026–07.10.2026, Adrian Mannarino 14.09.2026–19.10.2026. We read the data from Tennis Explorer, Tennis Abstract and the WTA and ATP tours, and form our own view.

No. 05 · Head to head5 meetings

Rublev leads 4-1

2025	RublevWimbledon · Grass · R32	7-5 6-2 6-3
2023	RublevShanghai Masters · Hard · R32	6-3 6-0
2022	RublevAstana · Hard · QF	6-1 6-2
2021	MannarinoMoscow · Hard · R16	5-7 7-6(4) 6-3
2019	RublevMoscow · Hard · F	6-4 6-0

No. 06 · What others predictConsensus 4 of 4

Who do others back in Rublev vs Mannarino?

Source	Their view	Versus us
Dimers	Rublev, 75%	Same side
Tennis Tonic	Rublev in two sets	Same side
Last Word On Tennis	Rublev in two sets	Same side
Tennis Abstract	Rublev, 72.1%	Same side

Our position4 of 4 back Rublev. We are on Rublev’s side.

No. 07 · Scenario & score

Rublev vs Mannarino predicted score

Rublev in two sets

Rublev's first serve is the weapon on a quick indoor court: 11.2 aces a match and 78.6% of first-serve points won over his last ten tour matches with stats. On return the two are close, about 17% of return games each, so expect few breaks. One break a set is enough for us to see 6:4, 6:3 Rublev; if Mannarino's sliced lefty serve takes him into tie-breaks, three sets is the alternative, and a win in three also counts.

Predicted score: 2:0; 6:4, 6:3
Alternative: 2:1; 6:4, 6:7, 6:3

No. 08 · Why this pick wins

Our Rublev vs Mannarino pick: Andrey Rublev win

Rublev to win the match

Why we back it

We back Andrey Rublev because the line, our fresh Elo calculation and the Dimers model all put him between 72% and 75%, and every preview we found picks him. Over his last ten tour matches with stats he held 86% of his service games and won 78.6% of his first-serve points, against 81.2% and 73.8% for Adrian Mannarino. He leads their head-to-head 4-1 and won the last three without dropping a set; Mannarino, 38, needed three sets against Aleksandar Vukic on Monday.

Our probability72–76%

Our pickAndrey Rublev win

Leg odds1.27

Main scenario2:0

Our scenario: 6:4, 6:32:0 in sets
Alternative: 6:4, 6:7, 6:32:1 in sets

What would change our mind Rublev's price drifting above 1.40 before the start, or any news about his fitness.

No. 09 · Arguing against ourselves

What could beat our pick?

Rublev has lost his last two matches, the second to Rei Sakamoto as a clear favourite.
It is his first match in twelve days, while Mannarino has already played on this court.
Mannarino has won four of his last ten as an underdog and gives few free points: 0.8 double faults a match.

No. 10 · Our call

Double

Andrey Rublev win is one leg of our double No. 126. We bet the double, not this match alone: total odds 1.63, 1.00 unit.

Leg 1 · this match: Andrey Rublev win @ 1.27
Leg 2: Jan-Lennard Struff win @ 1.28
Total odds: 1.63 · 1.00 unit
Odds at publish: 21 OCT 06:31 UK

Open double No. 126 →

Information only. No guarantees.18+Play responsibly