Double: Rublev vs Mannarino + Struff vs Onclin

Why this betA tennis double on two second-round favourites on Wednesday: Andrey Rublev to beat Adrian Mannarino in Almaty and Jan-Lennard Struff to beat the lucky loser Gauthier Onclin in Brussels. Both are the most reliable picks of our tennis day: the line, our fresh Elo calculation and the Dimers model put each of them between 72% and 79%, every preview we found is on their side, and neither comes in from a long break, a retirement or a title.

Leg 1 · Tennis · ATP · Almaty Open, Almaty · 21 OCT · 10:30 UK

Andrey Rublev vs Adrian Mannarino

Andrey Rublev win1.27Lost

Why this pickRublev leads the head-to-head 4-1 and won the last three meetings without dropping a set, the latest 7:5, 6:2, 6:3 at Wimbledon in 2025. Over his last ten tour matches with stats he held 86% of his service games with 11.2 aces a match; Mannarino held 81.2%. Mannarino is 38 and needed three sets against Aleksandar Vukic on Monday. Dimers gives Rublev 75%. The risk: Rublev has lost his last two, to Alex de Minaur and Rei Sakamoto, and plays his first match in twelve days. We expect 6:4, 6:3.

Predicted score: 2:0
Our estimate: 72–76%

Form · Rublev has lost his last two; Mannarino beat Aleksandar Vukic in three sets on Monday

Andrey RublevLast 10: 6-4

Won v Virtanen O. 6(5)-7, 6(0)-7, 6-0, 6-2, 7-6(5)
Lost to Merida Aguilar D. 6(3)-7, 6-2, 6-4, 6-4
Won v Hijikata R. 6-3, 6-3
Won v Gaston H. 6(6)-7, 7-6(4), 6-1
Won v Jacquet K. 7-6(0), 6-1
Lost to Medvedev D. 7-5, 6-4
Won v Griekspoor T. 6-4, 5-7, 7-6(6)
Won v Safiullin R. 6-2, 3-6, 6-4
Lost to De Minaur A. 1-6, 6-2, 6-3
Lost to Sakamoto R. 6-4, 6-4

Adrian MannarinoLast 10: 6-4

Lost to Bobichon M. 6-3, 7-5
Won v Shang J. 7-6(9), 6-2
Won v Tabilo A. 6-4, 6-4
Lost to Shapovalov D. 6(6)-7, 6-3, 6-2
Won v Kecmanovic M. 7-6(6), 3-6, 7-6(5)
Lost to Carreno-Busta P. 6-3, 6-4
Won v Basilashvili N. 6-3, 2-2 ret.
Won v Cobolli F. 6-1, 4-6, 6-3
Lost to Khachanov K. 6-2, 6-4
Won v Vukic A. 7-6(4), 4-6, 6-3

Stats comparison

Stat	Rublev	Mannarino
On hard courts	18-13	16-19
Last 10 matches	6-4	6-4
Service games held	86.0%	81.2%
Return games won	17.6%	16.9%

Our scenario

6:4, 6:3 2:0 in sets

Rublev in two sets. Rublev's first serve is the weapon on a quick indoor court: 11.2 aces a match and 78.6% of first-serve points won over his last ten tour matches with stats. On return the two are close, about 17% of return games each, so expect few breaks. One break a set is enough for us to see 6:4, 6:3 Rublev; if Mannarino's sliced lefty serve takes him into tie-breaks, three sets is the alternative, and a win in three also counts.

Arguing against ourselves

01Rublev has lost his last two matches, the second to Rei Sakamoto as a clear favourite.
02It is his first match in twelve days, while Mannarino has already played on this court.
03Mannarino has won four of his last ten as an underdog and gives few free points: 0.8 double faults a match.

Rublev this autumnHe reached the Hangzhou final in September and lost it to Daniil Medvedev 5:7, 4:6. In Beijing he beat Tallon Griekspoor and Roman Safiullin before losing to Alex de Minaur in the quarter-finals; in Shanghai he lost his opener to Rei Sakamoto 4:6, 4:6 on 9 October.

Full match analysis

Leg 2 · Tennis · ATP · European Open, Brussels · 21 OCT · 18:30 UK

Jan-Lennard Struff vs Gauthier Onclin

Jan-Lennard Struff win1.28Won

Why this pickStruff has not lost as a favourite in his last ten matches and beat Marcos Giron in two tie-breaks here on Tuesday. He serves 8.7 aces a match and wins 72.7% of his first-serve points over his last ten tour matches with stats; Onclin, a lucky loser ranked 178, serves 3.0 aces and has won two of his last ten. Dimers gives Struff 78%. The risk: Onclin plays at home in Brussels and Struff, 36, is on court for the second day running. We expect 7:6, 6:4.

Predicted score: 2:0
Our estimate: 72–76%

Form · Struff beat Marcos Giron in two tie-breaks on Tuesday; Onclin has won two of his last ten

Jan-Lennard StruffLast 10: 5-5

Lost to Michelsen A. 6-1, 3-6, 6-1
Won v Burruchaga R. 7-6(4), 2-6, 6-3
Lost to Tabilo A. 6-3, 6-4
Won v Ugo Carabelli C. 6-4, 6-3, 6-3
Lost to Cerundolo F. 5-7, 7-5, 4-6, 6-2, 6-3
Won v Tirante T. 6-1, 6-4
Lost to Medvedev D. 6-4, 6-3
Won v Landaluce M. 6-4, 6-4
Lost to Medvedev D. 4-6, 6-4, 6-3
Won v Giron M. 7-6(3), 7-6(3)

Gauthier OnclinLast 10: 2-8

Lost to Kopriva V. 6-4, 6-4
Lost to Sachko V. 7-5, 7-5
Lost to Perot R. 6-4, 6-2
Lost to Rodionov J. 6-4, 6-1
Won v Added D. 7-6(4), 6-2
Lost to Gueymard Wayenburg S. 6-1, 6-4
Lost to Glinka D. 4-6, 6-2, 6-3
Lost to Balshaw F. 6-4, 6(3)-7, 6-4
Won v Wendelken H. 6-3, 4-6, 6-0
Lost to Chidekh C. 6-2, 7-6(3)

Stats comparison

Stat	Struff	Onclin
On hard courts	10-14	41-16
Last 10 matches	5-5	2-8
Service games held	76.0%	70.8%
Return games won	17.6%	20.9%

Our scenario

7:6, 6:4 2:0 in sets

Struff in two sets. Struff held 76% of his service games over his last ten tour matches with stats, three of them against Medvedev and Cerundolo; Onclin held 70.8%. Onclin is the slightly better returner (20.9% of return games won against 17.6%), so a tight first set is possible, but Struff's first serve should win the tie-breaks, as it did twice against Giron. We see 7:6, 6:4 Struff; three sets is the alternative, and a win in three also counts.

Arguing against ourselves

01Onclin plays at home with nothing to lose, and he already knows the court from qualifying.
02Struff is 36 and is on court for the second day running, in a late match.
03Struff averages 3.9 double faults a match: a risk in tie-breaks.

Struff this autumnHe beat Marcos Giron 7:6(3), 7:6(3) in the first round here on Tuesday. In Shanghai he beat Martin Landaluce 6:4, 6:4 and lost to Daniil Medvedev in three sets; in Beijing he beat Thiago Tirante 6:1, 6:4 and lost to Medvedev again.

Full match analysis