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Tennis · WTA · China Open, Beijing · WTA 1000 · Semi-final · Hard
Qinwen ZhengvsElise Mertens prediction · China Open 2026
Date
10 OCT
Court
Capital Group Diamond
Order of play
Second match on court, after Andreeva v Bartunkova (not before 7:00 PM), not before 19:00 local (12:00 UK)
Status
7:5 6:2
Analysis onlyZHE12:00 UKMERAnalysis only
No. 01 · The short versionAnalysis
Who will win Zheng vs Mertens?
Qinwen Zheng plays Elise Mertens in the China Open semi-final in Beijing on Saturday. Our prediction: Zheng wins a close match in three sets, most likely 6:4, 4:6, 6:3; this is analysis only, with no bet.
- Predicted score
- 2:1
- Our pick
- 54–58%
- Our pick
- Qinwen Zheng win
- Odds at publish
- 1.68
- Set by set
- 6:4, 4:6, 6:3
- Not before (UK)
- 12:00
Zheng vs Mertens at a glance
| Match | Qinwen Zheng vs Elise Mertens |
|---|---|
| Tournament | WTA · China Open, Beijing · Semi-final |
| Surface | Hard |
| Start | 10 OCT · 12:00 UK · 19:00 local |
| Court | Capital Group Diamond · Second match on court, after Andreeva v Bartunkova (not before 7:00 PM) |
| Our pick | Qinwen Zheng win · 1.68 · analysis only |
| Our estimate | 54–58% |
| Predicted score | 2:1 (6:4, 4:6, 6:3) |
| Main reason | In the draw on a wild card, she has won five matches: Shi Han 7:6, 4:6, 6:2, Anna Kalinskaya (who retired at 3:0 in the third set), Marie Bouzkova 7:6, 4:6, 7:5, Alina Charaeva 6:1, 2:6, 6:4 and Elina Svitolina 6:3, 7:6 in the quarter-final on 9 October. |
No. 02 · Form
Zheng vs Mertens: recent form
Zheng has won five matches in a row in Beijing; Mertens beat Gauff and Swiatek
Qinwen ZhengLast 10: 8-2
- Won v Putintseva Y. 6-4, 2-6, 6-1
- Won v Keys M. 1-6, 7-6(3), 7-5
- Won v Swiatek I. 7-5, 6-3
- Lost to Rybakina E. 3-6, 6-1, 6-4
- Lost to Paolini J. 6-3, 7-6(4)
- Won v Shi H. 7-6(6), 4-6, 6-2
- Won v Kalinskaya A. 6(4)-7, 6-4, 3-0 ret.
- Won v Bouzkova M. 7-6(3), 4-6, 7-5
- Won v Charaeva A. 6-1, 2-6, 6-4
- Won v Svitolina E. 6-3, 7-6(6)
Elise MertensLast 10: 6-3
- Lost to Parry D. 6-4, 0-6, 6-3
- Won v Quevedo K. 6-4, 6-4
- Won v Timofeeva M. 6-2, 7-6(5)
- Lost to Osaka N. 6-3, 3-6, 7-5
- Lost to Chwalinska M. 6-2, 6-2
- Won v Volynets K. 6-0, 4-6, 7-5
- Won v Ostapenko J. 6-2, 3-6, 6-3
- Won v Gauff C. 6-3, 6-3
- Won v Swiatek I. 7-6(0), 6-3
Last ten results, oldest to newest; the ringed one is the latest. Tap a result for the opponent and score.
Show the matches
| Won v | Svitolina E.Beijing · 09.10.26 | 6-3, 7-6(6) |
| Won v | Charaeva A.Beijing · 07.10.26 | 6-1, 2-6, 6-4 |
| Won v | Bouzkova M.Beijing · 05.10.26 | 7-6(3), 4-6, 7-5 |
| Won v | Kalinskaya A.Beijing · 03.10.26 | 6(4)-7, 6-4, 3-0 ret. |
| Won v | Shi H.Beijing · 01.10.26 | 7-6(6), 4-6, 6-2 |
| Lost to | Paolini J.Billie Jean King Cup · 24.09.26 | 6-3, 7-6(4) |
| Lost to | Rybakina E.US Open · 09.09.26 | 3-6, 6-1, 6-4 |
| Won v | Swiatek I.US Open · 07.09.26 | 7-5, 6-3 |
| Won v | Keys M.US Open · 05.09.26 | 1-6, 7-6(3), 7-5 |
| Won v | Putintseva Y.US Open · 03.09.26 | 6-4, 2-6, 6-1 |
| Won v | Swiatek I.Beijing · 09.10.26 | 7-6(0), 6-3 |
| Won v | Gauff C.Beijing · 07.10.26 | 6-3, 6-3 |
| Won v | Ostapenko J.Beijing · 05.10.26 | 6-2, 3-6, 6-3 |
| Won v | Volynets K.Beijing · 03.10.26 | 6-0, 4-6, 7-5 |
| Lost to | Chwalinska M.Singapore WTA · 25.09.26 | 6-2, 6-2 |
| Lost to | Osaka N.US Open · 06.09.26 | 6-3, 3-6, 7-5 |
| Won v | Timofeeva M.US Open · 03.09.26 | 6-2, 7-6(5) |
| Won v | Quevedo K.US Open · 01.09.26 | 6-4, 6-4 |
| Lost to | Parry D.Monterrey · 30.08.26 | 6-4, 0-6, 6-3 |
Zheng in BeijingIn the draw on a wild card, she has won five matches: Shi Han 7:6, 4:6, 6:2, Anna Kalinskaya (who retired at 3:0 in the third set), Marie Bouzkova 7:6, 4:6, 7:5, Alina Charaeva 6:1, 2:6, 6:4 and Elina Svitolina 6:3, 7:6 in the quarter-final on 9 October.
No. 03 · Context
Zheng leads the head-to-head 1-0, from Charleston in 2025
- Mertens in Beijing
- She beat Katie Volynets 6:0, 4:6, 7:5 and Jelena Ostapenko 6:2, 3:6, 6:3, then Coco Gauff 6:3, 6:3 and Iga Swiatek 7:6, 6:3 in the quarter-final on 9 October, both times as the clear underdog.
- Head-to-head
- Zheng leads 1-0: she won their only meeting 6:3, 3:6, 6:3 in the Charleston round of 16 on clay in 2025.
- The season
- Zheng is ranked No. 54 and is 23-15 this season, 18-7 on hard courts; at the US Open she beat Swiatek 7:5, 6:3 before losing the quarter-final to Elena Rybakina. Mertens is No. 19, 35-19 this season and 22-11 on hard courts.
In the news
No. 04 · Stats comparison
Zheng holds serve 76% of the time this season, Mertens 72%
| Stat | Zheng | Mertens |
|---|---|---|
| Ranking | No. 54 | No. 19 (better) |
| Season record | 23-15 | 35-19 (better) |
| On hard courts | 18-7 (better) | 22-11 |
| Last 10 matches | 8-2 (better) | 7-3 |
| As favourite | 19-9 | 31-9 (better) |
| As underdog | 4-6 (better) | 4-10 |
| Stat | Zheng | Mertens |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 28 | 48 |
| Aces per match | 9.0 (better) | 4.3 |
| Double faults per match | 4.8 | 4.2 (better) |
| 1st serve in | 54.2% | 58.8% (better) |
| 1st serve points won | 74.1% (better) | 70.1% |
| 2nd serve points won | 48.1% (better) | 46.0% |
| Service games held | 76.4% (better) | 72.4% |
| Break points saved | 61.4% (better) | 57.2% |
| Stat | Zheng | Mertens |
|---|---|---|
| Return points won | 38.5% | 44.0% (better) |
| Return games won | 23.8% | 36.0% (better) |
| Break points converted | 43.4% | 46.9% (better) |
Form rows: 2026 season to 9 October. Serve and return: WTA official 2026 season statistics. We read the data from Tennis Explorer, Tennis Abstract and the WTA and ATP tours, and form our own view.
No. 05 · Head to head1 meetings
Zheng leads 1-0
| 2025 | ZhengCharleston · Clay · R16 | 6-3 3-6 6-3 |
No. 06 · What others predictConsensus 2 of 3
Who do others back in Zheng vs Mertens?
| Source | Their view | Versus us |
|---|---|---|
| Last Word On Tennis (preview) | Zheng in three sets | Same side |
| Last Word On Tennis (match picks) | Mertens to win | Other side |
| Tennis Abstract hard-court Elo | Zheng about 56% | Same side |
Our position2 of 3 back Zheng. We are on Zheng’s side.
No. 07 · Scenario & score
Zheng vs Mertens predicted score
Zheng’s serve against Mertens’s return
Zheng holds serve 76% of the time this season and averages nine aces a match; Mertens holds 72% but wins 36% of her return games, against 24% for Zheng. The match turns on whether Zheng’s serve stands up to the best returner she has met this week. We expect a split of sets and a 6:4, 4:6, 6:3 win for Zheng, with the home crowd behind her; a straight-sets Zheng win is the alternative.
- Predicted score
- 2:1
- 6:4, 4:6, 6:3
- Alternative
- 2:0
No. 08 · Our pick
Our Zheng vs Mertens pick: Qinwen Zheng win
Our pick: Zheng, analysis only
Why analysis only
We expect Zheng to edge it, but this is close to an even match: Mertens has just beaten Gauff and Swiatek in straight sets, and Zheng has needed a third set in four of her five matches this week. We are not sure enough of the result to stake on it.
Our pick54–58%
Our pickQinwen Zheng win
Odds1.68
Main scenario2:1
- Our scenario
- 6:4, 4:6, 6:32:1 in sets
What would change our mind Any news on Zheng’s fitness after five matches in nine days, or any medical time-out for either player before the match.
No. 09 · Arguing against ourselves
What could beat our pick?
- Mertens has beaten Gauff 6:3, 6:3 and Swiatek 7:6, 6:3 in her last two matches without dropping a set.
- Zheng has played 14 sets in her five Beijing matches; four of them went to a third set.
- Mertens wins 36% of her return games this season, Zheng 24%.
- Zheng puts only 54% of her first serves in.