Struff vs Onclin prediction · European Open

No. 01 · The short versionIn our Double

Who will win Struff vs Onclin?

Jan-Lennard Struff plays the Belgian lucky loser Gauthier Onclin in the second round of the European Open in Brussels on Wednesday evening. Our bet: Struff to win, most likely in two sets.

Predicted score: 2:0
Our estimate: 72–76%

Why we back it18+Play responsibly

Our pick: Jan-Lennard Struff win
Our bet: Double No. 126 · total odds 1.63
Leg odds: 1.28
Set by set: 7:6, 6:4
Not before (UK): 10:30

Struff vs Onclin at a glance

Match	Jan-Lennard Struff vs Gauthier Onclin
Tournament	ATP · European Open, Brussels · Second round
Surface	Indoor hard
Start	21 OCT · 10:30 UK · 11:30 local
Court	Centre Court · Fifth match on court, after Goffin v Bertola (not before 6:00 PM)
Our pick	Jan-Lennard Struff win · 1.28 · bet
Our estimate	72–76%
Predicted score	2:0 (7:6, 6:4)
Main reason	We back Jan-Lennard Struff because his serve is a level above anything Gauthier Onclin has faced lately: 8.7 aces a match and 72.7% of first-serve points won over his last ten tour matches with stats, against 3.0 and 66.5% for Onclin.

No. 02 · Form

Struff vs Onclin: recent form

Struff beat Marcos Giron in two tie-breaks on Tuesday; Onclin has won two of his last ten

Jan-Lennard StruffLast 10: 5-5

Lost to Michelsen A. 6-1, 3-6, 6-1
Won v Burruchaga R. 7-6(4), 2-6, 6-3
Lost to Tabilo A. 6-3, 6-4
Won v Ugo Carabelli C. 6-4, 6-3, 6-3
Lost to Cerundolo F. 5-7, 7-5, 4-6, 6-2, 6-3
Won v Tirante T. 6-1, 6-4
Lost to Medvedev D. 6-4, 6-3
Won v Landaluce M. 6-4, 6-4
Lost to Medvedev D. 4-6, 6-4, 6-3
Won v Giron M. 7-6(3), 7-6(3)

Gauthier OnclinLast 10: 2-8

Lost to Kopriva V. 6-4, 6-4
Lost to Sachko V. 7-5, 7-5
Lost to Perot R. 6-4, 6-2
Lost to Rodionov J. 6-4, 6-1
Won v Added D. 7-6(4), 6-2
Lost to Gueymard Wayenburg S. 6-1, 6-4
Lost to Glinka D. 4-6, 6-2, 6-3
Lost to Balshaw F. 6-4, 6(3)-7, 6-4
Won v Wendelken H. 6-3, 4-6, 6-0
Lost to Chidekh C. 6-2, 7-6(3)

Last ten results, oldest to newest; the ringed one is the latest. Tap a result for the opponent and score.

Show the matches

Jan-Lennard Struff
Won v	Giron M.Brussels · 20.10.26	7-6(3), 7-6(3)
Lost to	Medvedev D.Shanghai · 10.10.26	4-6, 6-4, 6-3
Won v	Landaluce M.Shanghai · 08.10.26	6-4, 6-4
Lost to	Medvedev D.Beijing · 03.10.26	6-4, 6-3
Won v	Tirante T.Beijing · 30.09.26	6-1, 6-4
Lost to	Cerundolo F.US Open · 03.09.26	5-7, 7-5, 4-6, 6-2, 6-3
Won v	Ugo Carabelli C.US Open · 01.09.26	6-4, 6-3, 6-3
Lost to	Tabilo A.Cincinnati · 15.08.26	6-3, 6-4
Won v	Burruchaga R.Cincinnati · 13.08.26	7-6(4), 2-6, 6-3
Lost to	Michelsen A.Montreal · 04.08.26	6-1, 3-6, 6-1

Gauthier Onclin
Lost to	Chidekh C.Brussels · 18.10.26	6-2, 7-6(3)
Won v	Wendelken H.Brussels · 17.10.26	6-3, 4-6, 6-0
Lost to	Balshaw F.Roanne challenger · 13.10.26	6-4, 6(3)-7, 6-4
Lost to	Glinka D.Villena challenger · 06.10.26	4-6, 6-2, 6-3
Lost to	Gueymard Wayenburg S.Mouilleron-Le-Captif challenger · 30.09.26	6-1, 6-4
Won v	Added D.Mouilleron-Le-Captif challenger · 28.09.26	7-6(4), 6-2
Lost to	Rodionov J.Davis Cup · 18.09.26	6-4, 6-1
Lost to	Perot R.Cassis challenger · 08.09.26	6-4, 6-2
Lost to	Sachko V.US Open · 25.08.26	7-5, 7-5
Lost to	Kopriva V.Cancun challenger · 20.08.26	6-4, 6-4

Struff this autumnHe beat Marcos Giron 7:6(3), 7:6(3) in the first round here on Tuesday. In Shanghai he beat Martin Landaluce 6:4, 6:4 and lost to Daniil Medvedev in three sets; in Beijing he beat Thiago Tirante 6:1, 6:4 and lost to Medvedev again.

No. 03 · Context

A German veteran against a Belgian lucky loser in front of a home crowd

Onclin this autumn: He lost to Clement Chidekh 2:6, 6:7(3) in the last round of qualifying here on Saturday and entered the main draw as a lucky loser. Before that he lost first-round matches at Challengers in Roanne and Villena and a Davis Cup rubber to Jurij Rodionov.
Season and surface: Struff is 22-24 this season, 10-14 on hard courts and 11-9 as a favourite. Onclin is 51-27, mostly at Challenger and lower level, and 41-16 on hard courts.
Home crowd: Onclin is Belgian and plays at home in Brussels; he also knows the court from two qualifying matches. The two have never met.
Rest: Struff played on Tuesday and is back a day later in the evening session. Onclin has not played since Saturday.

No. 04 · Stats comparison

Struff serves 8.7 aces a match over his last ten tour matches with stats, Onclin 3.0

Stat	Struff	Onclin
Season record	22-24	51-27 (better)
On hard courts	10-14	41-16 (better)
Last 10 matches	5-5 (better)	2-8
As favourite	11-9	43-8 (better)
As underdog	9-15 (better)	5-17

Stat	Struff	Onclin
Matches (W-L)	10 (4-6)	10 (3-7)
Aces per match	8.7 (better)	3.0
Double faults per match	3.9	2.3 (better)
1st serve in	55.2%	57.5% (better)
1st serve points won	72.7% (better)	66.5%
2nd serve points won	47.3%	50.0% (better)
Service games held	76.0% (better)	70.8%
Break points saved	59.5% (better)	55.4%

Stat	Struff	Onclin
Return points won	34.3%	37.2% (better)
Return games won	17.6%	20.9% (better)
Break points converted	44.0% (better)	39.3%

Form rows: 2026 season to 20 October. Serve and return: last 10 tour-level matches with stats: Jan Lennard Struff 20.07.2026–07.10.2026, Gauthier Onclin 18.08.2026–19.10.2026. We read the data from Tennis Explorer, Tennis Abstract and the WTA and ATP tours, and form our own view.

No. 05 · Head to headFirst meeting.

First meeting

No. 06 · What others predictConsensus 4 of 4

Who do others back in Struff vs Onclin?

Source	Their view	Versus us
Dimers	Struff, 78%	Same side
Tennis Tonic	Struff in two sets	Same side
Last Word On Tennis	Struff in two sets	Same side
The Stats Zone	Struff 2-0	Same side

Our position4 of 4 back Struff. We are on Struff’s side.

No. 07 · Scenario & score

Struff vs Onclin predicted score

Struff in two sets

Struff held 76% of his service games over his last ten tour matches with stats, three of them against Medvedev and Cerundolo; Onclin held 70.8%. Onclin is the slightly better returner (20.9% of return games won against 17.6%), so a tight first set is possible, but Struff's first serve should win the tie-breaks, as it did twice against Giron. We see 7:6, 6:4 Struff; three sets is the alternative, and a win in three also counts.

Predicted score: 2:0; 7:6, 6:4
Alternative: 2:1; 6:7, 6:4, 6:4

No. 08 · Why this pick wins

Our Struff vs Onclin pick: Jan-Lennard Struff win

Struff to win the match

Why we back it

We back Jan-Lennard Struff because his serve is a level above anything Gauthier Onclin has faced lately: 8.7 aces a match and 72.7% of first-serve points won over his last ten tour matches with stats, against 3.0 and 66.5% for Onclin. Struff has not lost as a favourite in his last ten matches; his five defeats came against Daniil Medvedev twice, Francisco Cerundolo, Alejandro Tabilo and Alex Michelsen. Onclin, a lucky loser ranked 178, has won two of his last ten and lost in qualifying here on Saturday. Dimers gives Struff 78%, and every preview we found picks him in two sets.

Our probability72–76%

Our pickJan-Lennard Struff win

Leg odds1.28

Main scenario2:0

Our scenario: 7:6, 6:42:0 in sets
Alternative: 6:7, 6:4, 6:42:1 in sets

What would change our mind Struff's price drifting above 1.40 before the start, or any news about his fitness after Tuesday's match.

No. 09 · Arguing against ourselves

What could beat our pick?

Onclin plays at home with nothing to lose, and he already knows the court from qualifying.
Struff is 36 and is on court for the second day running, in a late match.
Struff averages 3.9 double faults a match: a risk in tie-breaks.

No. 10 · Our call

Double

Jan-Lennard Struff win is one leg of our double No. 126. We bet the double, not this match alone: total odds 1.63, 1.00 unit.

Leg 1: Andrey Rublev win @ 1.27
Leg 2 · this match: Jan-Lennard Struff win @ 1.28
Total odds: 1.63 · 1.00 unit
Odds at publish: 21 OCT 06:31 UK

Open double No. 126 →

Information only. No guarantees.18+Play responsibly