Gauff pulls out of Wuhan, the title she won last year, to rest before the WTA Finals
Our take Losing 1,000 points is the smart choice
Tennis · WTA · Ningbo Open, Ningbo · WTA 500 · First round · Hard
Elise MertensvsLeylah Fernandez prediction · Ningbo Open 2026
Date
19 OCT
Court
Center Court
Order of play
First match on court, not before 12:00 local (05:00 UK)
Status
6:2 3:6 5:7
Analysis onlyMER05:00 UKFERAnalysis only
No. 01 · The short versionAnalysis
Who will win Mertens vs Fernandez?
Elise Mertens plays Leylah Fernandez in the first round of the Ningbo Open on Monday. Our pick: Mertens in three sets, analysis only.
- Predicted score
- 2:1
- Our pick
- 55–58%
- Our pick
- Elise Mertens win
- Odds at publish
- 1.71
- Set by set
- 6:4, 3:6, 6:3
- Not before (UK)
- 05:00
Mertens vs Fernandez at a glance
| Match | Elise Mertens vs Leylah Fernandez |
|---|---|
| Tournament | WTA · Ningbo Open, Ningbo · First round |
| Surface | Hard |
| Start | 19 OCT · 05:00 UK · 12:00 local |
| Court | Center Court · First match on court |
| Our pick | Elise Mertens win · 1.71 · analysis only |
| Our estimate | 55–58% |
| Predicted score | 2:1 (6:4, 3:6, 6:3) |
| Main reason | In Beijing she reached the semi-finals, beating Coco Gauff 6:3, 6:3 and Iga Swiatek 7:6(0), 6:3, then lost to Qinwen Zheng. |
No. 02 · Form
Mertens vs Fernandez: recent form
Mertens beat Gauff and Swiatek in Beijing; Fernandez won the Singapore title in September
Elise MertensLast 10: 6-4
- Won v Timofeeva M. 6-2, 7-6(5)
- Lost to Osaka N. 6-3, 3-6, 7-5
- Won v Krejcikova B.
- Lost to Chwalinska M. 6-2, 6-2
- Won v Volynets K. 6-0, 4-6, 7-5
- Won v Ostapenko J. 6-2, 3-6, 6-3
- Won v Gauff C. 6-3, 6-3
- Won v Swiatek I. 7-6(0), 6-3
- Lost to Zheng Q. 7-5, 6-2
- Lost to Snigur D. 6-4, 7-5
Leylah FernandezLast 10: 7-3
- Lost to Pegula J. 1-6, 6-4, 6-3
- Won v Okamura K. 6-2, 6-3
- Won v Parks A. 6-4, 6-3
- Won v Andreeva M. 6-2, 7-5
- Won v Chwalinska M. 1-6, 6-4, 6-2
- Won v Gibson T. 7-5, 6-0
- Lost to Rakhimova K. 6-2, 4-6, 6-3
- Won v Alexandrova E. 6-4, 3-6, 6-3
- Won v Shi H. 6-3, 6-4
- Lost to Ostapenko J. 6-1, 1-6, 6-4
Last ten results, oldest to newest; the ringed one is the latest. Tap a result for the opponent and score.
Show the matches
| Lost to | Snigur D.Wuhan · 13.10.26 | 6-4, 7-5 |
| Lost to | Zheng Q.Beijing · 10.10.26 | 7-5, 6-2 |
| Won v | Swiatek I.Beijing · 09.10.26 | 7-6(0), 6-3 |
| Won v | Gauff C.Beijing · 07.10.26 | 6-3, 6-3 |
| Won v | Ostapenko J.Beijing · 05.10.26 | 6-2, 3-6, 6-3 |
| Won v | Volynets K.Beijing · 03.10.26 | 6-0, 4-6, 7-5 |
| Lost to | Chwalinska M.Singapore WTA · 25.09.26 | 6-2, 6-2 |
| Won v | Krejcikova B.Singapore WTA · 23.09.26 | |
| Lost to | Osaka N.US Open · 06.09.26 | 6-3, 3-6, 7-5 |
| Won v | Timofeeva M.US Open · 03.09.26 | 6-2, 7-6(5) |
| Lost to | Ostapenko J.Wuhan · 15.10.26 | 6-1, 1-6, 6-4 |
| Won v | Shi H.Wuhan · 14.10.26 | 6-3, 6-4 |
| Won v | Alexandrova E.Wuhan · 12.10.26 | 6-4, 3-6, 6-3 |
| Lost to | Rakhimova K.Beijing · 03.10.26 | 6-2, 4-6, 6-3 |
| Won v | Gibson T.Singapore WTA · 27.09.26 | 7-5, 6-0 |
| Won v | Chwalinska M.Singapore WTA · 26.09.26 | 1-6, 6-4, 6-2 |
| Won v | Andreeva M.Singapore WTA · 25.09.26 | 6-2, 7-5 |
| Won v | Parks A.Singapore WTA · 23.09.26 | 6-4, 6-3 |
| Won v | Okamura K.Singapore WTA · 21.09.26 | 6-2, 6-3 |
| Lost to | Pegula J.US Open · 04.09.26 | 1-6, 6-4, 6-3 |
Mertens this autumnIn Beijing she reached the semi-finals, beating Coco Gauff 6:3, 6:3 and Iga Swiatek 7:6(0), 6:3, then lost to Qinwen Zheng. In Wuhan she lost in the first round to Daria Snigur 4:6, 5:7.
No. 03 · Context
The seventh seed against the 2021 US Open finalist in the first round in Ningbo
- Fernandez this autumn
- She won the title in Singapore in September, beating Talia Gibson 7:5, 6:0 in the final. In Wuhan she beat Ekaterina Alexandrova and Han Shi, then lost to Jelena Ostapenko 1:6, 6:1, 4:6.
- Season and surface
- Mertens is 35-21 this season and 22-13 on hard courts. Fernandez is 24-25 and 15-14 on hard courts.
- Head to head
- The WTA lists eight meetings, six of them won by Mertens; the most recent was in Dubai in 2025, 6:2, 6:2. Fernandez won their 2024 meeting in Wuhan 6:1, 6:0.
In the news
No. 04 · Stats comparison
Mertens holds 73.1% of her service games this season, Fernandez 71.8%
| Stat | Mertens | Fernandez |
|---|---|---|
| Season record | 35-21 (better) | 24-25 |
| On hard courts | 22-13 (better) | 15-14 |
| Last 10 matches | 6-4 | 7-3 (better) |
| As favourite | 31-10 (better) | 18-14 |
| As underdog | 4-11 | 6-11 (better) |
| Stat | Mertens | Fernandez |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 53 | 45 |
| Aces per match | 4.3 (better) | 2.6 |
| Double faults per match | 4.1 (better) | 4.6 |
| 1st serve in | 58.9% | 62.5% (better) |
| 1st serve points won | 70.7% (better) | 65.6% |
| 2nd serve points won | 46.1% | 47.5% (better) |
| Service games held | 73.1% (better) | 71.8% |
| Break points saved | 56.8% | 62.9% (better) |
| Stat | Mertens | Fernandez |
|---|---|---|
| Return points won | 44.0% (better) | 41.4% |
| Return games won | 35.6% (better) | 31.5% |
| Break points converted | 46.1% (better) | 44.2% |
Form rows: 2026 season to 18 October (Tennis Explorer). Serve and return: 2026 season, official WTA stats.. We read the data from Tennis Explorer, Tennis Abstract and the WTA and ATP tours, and form our own view.
No. 05 · Head to head8 meetings
Mertens leads 6-2
| 2025 | MertensDubai · Hard · R64 | 6-2 6-2 |
| 2024 | FernandezWuhan · Hard · R16 | 6-1 6-0 |
| 2024 | MertensDoha · Hard · R16 | |
| 2023 | FernandezGuadalajara · Hard · R32 | 6-3 6-4 |
| 2022 | MertensRoland Garros · Clay · R32 | 6-2 6-2 |
| 2021 | MertensIndian Wells · Hard · Q | 7-5 6-4 |
| 2021 | MertensMontreal · Hard · R16 | 7-6(4) 6-2 |
| 2021 | MertensAustralian Open · Hard · R128 | 6-1 6-3 |
No. 06 · What others predictConsensus 2 of 2
Who do others back in Mertens vs Fernandez?
| Source | Their view | Versus us |
|---|---|---|
| Tennis Abstract Elo | Mertens, 56.7% | Same side |
| Tennis Tonic | Mertens in three sets | Same side |
Our position2 of 2 back Mertens. We are on Mertens’s side.
No. 07 · Scenario & score
Mertens vs Fernandez predicted score
Mertens in three sets
Mertens wins more points behind her first serve (70.7% against 65.6%) and more return games (35.6% against 31.5%) this season. Fernandez fights for every point and played two three-setters in Wuhan last week, so we expect a long match: 6:4, 3:6, 6:3. A Fernandez win is a real outcome.
- Predicted score
- 2:1
- 6:4, 3:6, 6:3
- Alternative
- 2:0
- 6:4, 6:4
No. 08 · Our pick
Our Mertens vs Fernandez pick: Elise Mertens win
Mertens to win, analysis only
Why analysis only
The market makes this close to an even match and the price on Mertens is above the range we stake at. We are not sure enough of the result to stake on it.
Our pick55–58%
Our pickElise Mertens win
Odds1.71
Main scenario2:1
- Our scenario
- 6:4, 3:6, 6:32:1 in sets
- Alternative
- 6:4, 6:42:0 in sets
What would change our mind Any news about Mertens’ fitness, or a quick start from Fernandez.
No. 09 · Arguing against ourselves
What could beat our pick?
- Mertens has lost her last two matches, to Qinwen Zheng and Daria Snigur.
- Fernandez is 7-3 over her last ten matches and won a title in September.
- Fernandez saves more break points this season (62.9% against 56.8%).