Tennis · ATP · Shanghai Masters, Shanghai · ATP Masters 1000 · Quarter-final · Hard
Arthur GeavsAlejandro Davidovich Fokina prediction · Shanghai Masters 2026
Date
15 OCT
Court
Stadium Court
Order of play
Second match on court (not before 2:30 PM), not before 14:30 local (07:30 UK)
Status
1:4
Analysis onlyGEA07:30 UKDAVAnalysis only
No. 01 · The short versionAnalysis
Who will win Gea vs Davidovich Fokina?
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina plays Arthur Gea in the Shanghai Masters quarter-finals on Thursday. Our pick: Davidovich Fokina in three sets, analysis only.
- Predicted score
- 1:2
- Our pick
- 52–56%
- Our pick
- Alejandro Davidovich Fokina win
- Odds at publish
- 1.81
- Set by set
- 6:7, 6:4, 4:6
- Not before (UK)
- 07:30
Gea vs Davidovich Fokina at a glance
| Match | Arthur Gea vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina |
|---|---|
| Tournament | ATP · Shanghai Masters, Shanghai · Quarter-final |
| Surface | Hard |
| Start | 15 OCT · 07:30 UK · 14:30 local |
| Court | Stadium Court · Second match on court (not before 2:30 PM) |
| Our pick | Alejandro Davidovich Fokina win · 1.81 · analysis only |
| Our estimate | 52–56% |
| Predicted score | 1:2 (6:7, 6:4, 4:6) |
| Main reason | He beat Jenson Brooksby 6:1, 6:3, Frances Tiafoe 7:6(4), 4:6, 7:6(6) and Hubert Hurkacz 1:6, 6:3, 7:6(6). |
No. 02 · Form
Gea vs Davidovich Fokina: recent form
Davidovich Fokina won two final-set tie-breaks; Gea has won four in a row
Arthur GeaLast 10: 8-2
- Won v Zheng M. 7-6(7), 3-6, 4-6, 6-3, 6-2
- Lost to Van De Zandschulp B. 3-6, 6(0)-7, 7-6(7), 7-6(3), 6-4
- Won v Te R. 6-2, 6-3
- Won v Machac T. 6-3, 6-4
- Won v Zhang Z. 6-4, 6-3
- Lost to Hurkacz H. 7-6(5), 6(5)-7, 6-2
- Won v Faria J. 6(3)-7, 6-1, 6-2
- Won v Humbert U. 6-4, 3-6, 6-1
- Won v Shelton B. 7-6(5), 7-6(3)
- Won v Mensik J. 7-6(4), 6-4
Alejandro Davidovich FokinaLast 10: 8-2
- Won v Trungelliti M. 6-4, 7-5
- Lost to Molcan A. 3-6, 6-1, 6-2
- Won v Cerundolo J. 6-4, 6-4
- Won v Muller A. 6-1, 7-5
- Won v Basilashvili N. 4-6, 6-4, 6-3
- Won v Hurkacz H. 6-4, 7-6(7)
- Lost to Berrettini M. 1-6, 7-6(1), 6-4
- Won v Brooksby J. 6-1, 6-3
- Won v Tiafoe F. 7-6(4), 4-6, 7-6(6)
- Won v Hurkacz H. 1-6, 6-3, 7-6(6)
Last ten results, oldest to newest; the ringed one is the latest. Tap a result for the opponent and score.
Show the matches
| Won v | Mensik J.Shanghai · 13.10.26 | 7-6(4), 6-4 |
| Won v | Shelton B.Shanghai · 11.10.26 | 7-6(5), 7-6(3) |
| Won v | Humbert U.Shanghai · 09.10.26 | 6-4, 3-6, 6-1 |
| Won v | Faria J.Shanghai · 07.10.26 | 6(3)-7, 6-1, 6-2 |
| Lost to | Hurkacz H.Beijing · 02.10.26 | 7-6(5), 6(5)-7, 6-2 |
| Won v | Zhang Z.Beijing · 30.09.26 | 6-4, 6-3 |
| Won v | Machac T.Beijing · 29.09.26 | 6-3, 6-4 |
| Won v | Te R.Beijing · 28.09.26 | 6-2, 6-3 |
| Lost to | Van De Zandschulp B.US Open · 07.09.26 | 3-6, 6(0)-7, 7-6(7), 7-6(3), 6-4 |
| Won v | Zheng M.US Open · 05.09.26 | 7-6(7), 3-6, 4-6, 6-3, 6-2 |
| Won v | Hurkacz H.Shanghai · 13.10.26 | 1-6, 6-3, 7-6(6) |
| Won v | Tiafoe F.Shanghai · 11.10.26 | 7-6(4), 4-6, 7-6(6) |
| Won v | Brooksby J.Shanghai · 09.10.26 | 6-1, 6-3 |
| Lost to | Berrettini M.Tokyo (Japan Open) · 01.10.26 | 1-6, 7-6(1), 6-4 |
| Won v | Hurkacz H.Chengdu · 29.09.26 | 6-4, 7-6(7) |
| Won v | Basilashvili N.Chengdu · 28.09.26 | 4-6, 6-4, 6-3 |
| Won v | Muller A.Chengdu · 27.09.26 | 6-1, 7-5 |
| Won v | Cerundolo J.Chengdu · 26.09.26 | 6-4, 6-4 |
| Lost to | Molcan A.Umag · 16.07.26 | 3-6, 6-1, 6-2 |
| Won v | Trungelliti M.Umag · 15.07.26 | 6-4, 7-5 |
Davidovich Fokina’s weekHe beat Jenson Brooksby 6:1, 6:3, Frances Tiafoe 7:6(4), 4:6, 7:6(6) and Hubert Hurkacz 1:6, 6:3, 7:6(6). In September he won the title in Chengdu.
No. 03 · Context
A first meeting for a place in the Shanghai Masters semi-finals
- Gea’s week
- He beat Jaime Faria 6:7(3), 6:1, 6:2, Ugo Humbert 6:4, 3:6, 6:1, Ben Shelton 7:6(5), 7:6(3) and Jakub Mensik 7:6(4), 6:4.
- Season and surface
- Davidovich Fokina is 30-16 this season and 16-8 on hard courts. Gea is 49-18 and 32-6 on hard courts, including Challenger events.
- Head to head
- They have never played each other.
No. 04 · Stats comparison
Gea wins 25.2% of return games over his last ten matches, Davidovich Fokina 20.8%
| Stat | Gea | Davidovich Fokina |
|---|---|---|
| Season record | 49-18 (better) | 30-16 |
| On hard courts | 32-6 (better) | 16-8 |
| Last 10 matches | 8-2 | 8-2 |
| As favourite | 35-11 | 26-6 (better) |
| As underdog | 13-7 (better) | 3-10 |
| Stat | Gea | Davidovich Fokina |
|---|---|---|
| Aces per match | 7.5 (better) | 5.7 |
| Double faults per match | 4.1 | 1.3 (better) |
| 1st serve in | 61.9% | 67.9% (better) |
| 1st serve points won | 75.6% (better) | 72.8% |
| 2nd serve points won | 53.1% | 58.2% (better) |
| Service games held | 84.9% | 87.0% (better) |
| Break points saved | 61.4% | 67.3% (better) |
| Stat | Gea | Davidovich Fokina |
|---|---|---|
| Return points won | 39.6% (better) | 35.8% |
| Return games won | 25.2% (better) | 20.8% |
| Break points converted | 42.4% | 47.2% (better) |
Form rows: 2026 season to 14 October (Tennis Explorer, Challenger events included). Serve and return: last 10 tour matches with stats, up to the Shanghai quarter-final.. We read the data from Tennis Explorer, Tennis Abstract and the WTA and ATP tours, and form our own view.
No. 05 · Head to headFirst meeting.
First meeting
No. 06 · What others predictConsensus 2 of 2
Who do others back in Gea vs Davidovich Fokina?
| Source | Their view | Versus us |
|---|---|---|
| Dimers (model) | Davidovich Fokina, 53.8% | Same side |
| Tennis Abstract Elo | Davidovich Fokina, 60.1% | Same side |
Our position2 of 2 back Davidovich Fokina. We are on Davidovich Fokina’s side.
No. 07 · Scenario & score
Gea vs Davidovich Fokina predicted score
Davidovich Fokina in three sets
Both hold serve well (87.0% and 84.9% over their last ten matches), so expect tie-breaks. Davidovich Fokina has closed out two final-set tie-breaks this week; we expect him to do it once more: 6:7, 6:4, 6:4. A Gea win is just as real an outcome.
- Predicted score
- 1:2
- 6:7, 6:4, 4:6
- Alternative
- 2:1
- 7:6, 4:6, 6:4
No. 08 · Our pick
Our Gea vs Davidovich Fokina pick: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina win
Davidovich Fokina to win, analysis only
Why analysis only
Both results are real: the prices are almost level and Gea is on the best run of his season. We are not sure enough of the result to stake on it.
Our pick52–56%
Our pickAlejandro Davidovich Fokina win
Odds1.81
Main scenario1:2
- Our scenario
- 6:7, 6:4, 4:61:2 in sets
- Alternative
- 7:6, 4:6, 6:42:1 in sets
What would change our mind Any news about Davidovich Fokina’s fitness after two long matches.
No. 09 · Arguing against ourselves
What could beat our pick?
- Gea has won four matches in a row in Shanghai, three of them against seeded players.
- Davidovich Fokina has played two three-setters with deciding tie-breaks in four days.
- Gea wins more return games over his last ten matches (25.2% against 20.8%).