Rolex Shanghai Masters picks, with the reasoning behind every call.
Our Shanghai Masters calls so far: 13 of 18 matches called right
Next edition: October 2027
Analysis only. Our pick: Rafael Jodar to win the final · analysis only. We expect three sets: Jodar returns better than anyone Davidovich Fokina has met this week, but the odds see a near coin-flip.
We back Medvedev to win the semi-final: he has won nine of his last ten and serves far bigger than Jodar, who has lost the first set in all four of his Shanghai matches.
We back Zverev to win the semi-final: he holds serve in 93.8% of his service games over his last ten matches and leads the head to head 6-1.
We back Medvedev to win the match: he has won nine of his last ten and beat Paul in all three of their meetings on hard courts.
Analysis only. Our pick: Jodar in three sets · analysis only. He has come from a set down in all three of his matches in Shanghai; Ruud reached the quarter-finals when Felix Auger-Aliassime retired at 5:2.
Analysis only. Our pick: Zverev to win, most likely in three sets · analysis only. He is the stronger server, but his ankle flared up again in the Bublik match.
Analysis only. Our pick: Davidovich Fokina in three sets · analysis only. He won two deciding-set tie-breaks this week; Gea beat Ben Shelton and Jakub Mensik without dropping a set.
We back Medvedev to win the match: he has won 9 of his last 10 and wins 25.0% of his return games over his last ten matches with stats, against Tsitsipas’s 20.0%.
We back Paul to win the match: he has lost eight games in two Shanghai matches and beat Bergs 6:1, 6:2 at Indian Wells this year, while Bergs serves 4.8 double faults a match.
Analysis only. Our pick: Davidovich Fokina in three sets · analysis only. He leads their meetings 5-2 and beat Hurkacz in the Chengdu final two weeks ago, but Hurkacz has beaten Novak Djokovic this week and the market makes him a slight favourite.
The Rolex Shanghai Masters is the ATP Masters 1000 of the Asian swing, played on outdoor hard courts over 12 days with a 96-player singles draw, best of three sets. The 2026 edition runs from 7 to 18 October. The last finished edition, in 2025, gave the tour one of its great stories: Valentin Vacherot came through qualifying ranked No. 204 and beat his cousin Arthur Rinderknech in the final, the lowest-ranked Masters 1000 champion since the series began in 1990. The 2027 edition runs from 6 to 17 October.
Shanghai in October is often warm and humid, and heavy air slows the ball, so long rallies and fitness matter more than the hard court suggests. The schedule matters just as much: Beijing and Tokyo end on the Tuesday and Shanghai starts the next day, so players who went deep there arrive tired and jet-lagged, and the first-round bye for the 32 seeds is a real help. Late in the season, some players are chasing ranking points for the ATP Finals and some are running on empty, and that shows in the later rounds.
We do not pick every match. We choose the Shanghai matches where we have a clear read on the result, write the analysis and publish one pick with the odds at the time of publication. Every pick goes into our public tracker and is settled on the official result. Analyses from every edition stay on this page.
The 2026 Rolex Shanghai Masters runs from 7 to 18 October. The 2027 edition runs from 6 to 17 October.
Outdoor hard courts. It is the only ATP Masters 1000 in Asia.
96 in the singles draw. The 32 seeds start in the second round, and all matches are best of three sets.
Every pick we publish goes into our public tracker with the odds at publication, the stake in units and the final result. Nothing is removed or edited after publication.
Sources: ATP Tour: Valentin Vacherot on his Shanghai 2025 run · ATP Tour: Valentin Vacherot relives his Shanghai fairytale ahead of title defence · ATP Tour: 2026 calendar (PDF) · ATP Tour: 2027 calendar (PDF, 14 Jan 2026)