Jódar, 20, lost the first set again and won again. Ruud's defeat puts him ninth for Turin
Our take The Turin place is now Jódar's to lose
Tennis · ATP · Shanghai Masters, Shanghai · ATP Masters 1000 · Final · Hard
Rafael JodarvsAlejandro Davidovich Fokina prediction · Shanghai Masters 2026
Date
18 OCT
Court
Stadium Court
Order of play
Second match on court (not before 4:30 PM), after the doubles final, not before 16:30 local (09:30 UK)
Status
6:1 6:7 4:6
Analysis onlyJOD09:30 UKDAVAnalysis only
No. 01 · The short versionAnalysis
Who will win Jodar vs Davidovich Fokina?
Rafael Jodar plays Alejandro Davidovich Fokina in the Shanghai Masters final on Sunday, the first all-Spanish final in the tournament's history. Our pick is Jodar to win, most likely in three sets.
- Predicted score
- 2:1
- Our pick
- 54–57%
- Our pick
- Rafael Jodar win
- Odds at publish
- 1.72
- Set by set
- 4:6, 6:3, 6:4
- Not before (UK)
- 09:30
Jodar vs Davidovich Fokina at a glance
| Match | Rafael Jodar vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina |
|---|---|
| Tournament | ATP · Shanghai Masters, Shanghai · Final |
| Surface | Hard |
| Start | 18 OCT · 09:30 UK · 16:30 local |
| Court | Stadium Court · Second match on court (not before 4:30 PM), after the doubles final |
| Our pick | Rafael Jodar win · 1.72 · analysis only |
| Our estimate | 54–57% |
| Predicted score | 2:1 (4:6, 6:3, 6:4) |
| Main reason | Jodar is the better returner in this final: over his last ten matches with stats he wins 26.1% of his return games, against 17.7% for Davidovich Fokina. |
No. 02 · Form
Jodar vs Davidovich Fokina: recent form
Jodar has come from behind four times in Shanghai; Davidovich Fokina has won nine of his last ten
Rafael JodarLast 10: 6-3
- Won v Tabilo A. 6-2, 6-1
- Lost to Cobolli F. 4-6, 7-6(3), 6-3
- Lost to Yunchaokete B. 6-2, 6-1, 6-1
- Lost to Vallejo A. 6-1, 6-3
- Won v Tirante T. 4-6, 6-2, 6-3
- Won v Lehecka J. 4-6, 7-6(2), 6-4
- Won v Van De Zandschulp B. 6(4)-7, 6-4, 6-2
- Won v Ruud C. 4-6, 6-4, 6-3
- Won v Medvedev D. 6-3, 6-4
Alejandro Davidovich FokinaLast 10: 9-1
- Won v Cerundolo J. 6-4, 6-4
- Won v Muller A. 6-1, 7-5
- Won v Basilashvili N. 4-6, 6-4, 6-3
- Won v Hurkacz H. 6-4, 7-6(7)
- Lost to Berrettini M. 1-6, 7-6(1), 6-4
- Won v Brooksby J. 6-1, 6-3
- Won v Tiafoe F. 7-6(4), 4-6, 7-6(6)
- Won v Hurkacz H. 1-6, 6-3, 7-6(6)
- Won v Gea A. 4-1 ret.
- Won v Zverev A. 5-7, 6-4, 6-3
Last ten results, oldest to newest; the ringed one is the latest. Tap a result for the opponent and score.
Show the matches
| Won v | Medvedev D.Shanghai · 17.10.26 | 6-3, 6-4 |
| Won v | Ruud C.Shanghai · 16.10.26 | 4-6, 6-4, 6-3 |
| Won v | Van De Zandschulp B.Shanghai · 14.10.26 | 6(4)-7, 6-4, 6-2 |
| Won v | Lehecka J.Shanghai · 12.10.26 | 4-6, 7-6(2), 6-4 |
| Won v | Tirante T.Shanghai · 10.10.26 | 4-6, 6-2, 6-3 |
| Lost to | Vallejo A.Tokyo (Japan Open) · 01.10.26 | 6-1, 6-3 |
| Lost to | Yunchaokete B.US Open · 02.09.26 | 6-2, 6-1, 6-1 |
| Lost to | Cobolli F.Cincinnati · 19.08.26 | 4-6, 7-6(3), 6-3 |
| Won v | Tabilo A.Cincinnati · 17.08.26 | 6-2, 6-1 |
| Won v | Zverev A.Shanghai · 17.10.26 | 5-7, 6-4, 6-3 |
| Won v | Gea A.Shanghai · 15.10.26 | 4-1 ret. |
| Won v | Hurkacz H.Shanghai · 13.10.26 | 1-6, 6-3, 7-6(6) |
| Won v | Tiafoe F.Shanghai · 11.10.26 | 7-6(4), 4-6, 7-6(6) |
| Won v | Brooksby J.Shanghai · 09.10.26 | 6-1, 6-3 |
| Lost to | Berrettini M.Tokyo (Japan Open) · 01.10.26 | 1-6, 7-6(1), 6-4 |
| Won v | Hurkacz H.Chengdu · 29.09.26 | 6-4, 7-6(7) |
| Won v | Basilashvili N.Chengdu · 28.09.26 | 4-6, 6-4, 6-3 |
| Won v | Muller A.Chengdu · 27.09.26 | 6-1, 7-5 |
| Won v | Cerundolo J.Chengdu · 26.09.26 | 6-4, 6-4 |
Jodar this weekHe beat Thiago Agustin Tirante 4:6, 6:2, 6:3, Jiri Lehecka 4:6, 7:6(2), 6:4, Botic van de Zandschulp 6:7(4), 6:4, 6:2, Casper Ruud 4:6, 6:4, 6:3 and Daniil Medvedev 6:3, 6:4 in the semi-final. Before Shanghai he lost in the first round in Tokyo, 1:6, 3:6 to Adolfo Daniel Vallejo, and in the first round of the US Open.
No. 03 · Context
The first all-Spanish final in Shanghai and a first Masters 1000 final for both
- Davidovich Fokina this week
- He beat Jenson Brooksby 6:1, 6:3, Frances Tiafoe 7:6(4), 4:6, 7:6(6), Hubert Hurkacz 1:6, 6:3, 7:6(6), went through when Gea retired at 4:1 in the quarter-final, and beat Alexander Zverev 5:7, 6:4, 6:3 on Saturday. He won the Chengdu title on 29 September, beating Hurkacz 6:4, 7:6(7) in the final.
- What is at stake
- Neither player has won a Masters 1000 title, and Spain has never had a Shanghai champion. It is the first all-Spanish final at the event.
- Head to head
- This is their first meeting.
- Rest and load
- Both played their semi-finals on Saturday. Over seven days Jodar has played 11 sets and Davidovich Fokina 10, each with three three-setters. Neither has any injury reported.
In the news
No. 04 · Stats comparison
Jodar wins 26.1% of his return games, Davidovich Fokina 17.7%
| Stat | Jodar | Davidovich Fokina |
|---|---|---|
| Season record | 56-17 (better) | 32-16 |
| On hard courts | 34-12 (better) | 18-8 |
| Last 10 matches | 7-3 | 9-1 (better) |
| Stat | Jodar | Davidovich Fokina |
|---|---|---|
| Service games held | 79.0% | 89.1% (better) |
| 1st serve points won | 68.2% | 74.7% (better) |
| 2nd serve points won | 51.9% | 57.9% (better) |
| Break points saved | 64.3% | 69.6% (better) |
| Stat | Jodar | Davidovich Fokina |
|---|---|---|
| Return games won | 26.1% (better) | 17.7% |
Form rows: 2026 season to 17 October (Tennis Explorer). Serve and return: last 10 tour matches with stats, to 7 October, before Shanghai (Tennis Abstract).. We read the data from Tennis Explorer, Tennis Abstract and the WTA and ATP tours, and form our own view.
No. 05 · Head to headFirst meeting.
First meeting
No. 06 · What others predictConsensus 3 of 3
Who do others back in Jodar vs Davidovich Fokina?
| Source | Their view | Versus us |
|---|---|---|
| Dimers | Jodar, 51% | Same side |
| Sporting Life | Jodar to win | Same side |
| Tennis Abstract Elo | Jodar, 54.5% | Same side |
Our position3 of 3 back Jodar. We are on Jodar’s side.
No. 07 · Scenario & score
Jodar vs Davidovich Fokina predicted score
Jodar in three sets
Davidovich Fokina is the steadier server: 89.1% of service games held and 74.7% of first-serve points won, against 79.0% and 68.2% for Jodar. That makes breaks rare on his side, and two of his three three-setters this week ended in a deciding tie-break. Jodar has lost the first set three times in Shanghai and still won. We expect something like 4:6, 6:3, 6:4. The alternative is Davidovich Fokina in three tight sets, with tie-breaks.
- Predicted score
- 2:1
- 4:6, 6:3, 6:4
- Alternative
- 1:2
- 6:7, 7:6, 6:7
No. 08 · Our pick
Our Jodar vs Davidovich Fokina pick: Rafael Jodar win
Jodar to win the match
Why analysis only
The odds of 1.72 sit outside the range we use for tennis singles (1.25 to 1.45), and both results are realistic, so this final is an analysis without a bet.
Our pick54–57%
Our pickRafael Jodar win
Odds1.72
Main scenario2:1
- Our scenario
- 4:6, 6:3, 6:42:1 in sets
- Alternative
- 6:7, 7:6, 6:71:2 in sets
What would change our mind Any report of a fitness problem for Jodar after the semi-final, or the odds swinging to make Davidovich Fokina the favourite.
No. 09 · Arguing against ourselves
What could beat our pick?
- The odds see a near coin-flip: Jodar is about 55% without the margin, and the Dimers model has him at 51%.
- Davidovich Fokina holds serve 89.1% of the time and has won nine of his last ten matches, including the Chengdu title.
- Jodar went out in the first round in Tokyo and at the US Open before this run, winning four games in each.