Jódar, 20, lost the first set again and won again. Ruud's defeat puts him ninth for Turin
Our take The Turin place is now Jódar's to lose
Tennis · ATP · Shanghai Masters, Shanghai · ATP Masters 1000 · Quarter-final · Hard
Rafael JodarvsCasper Ruud prediction · Shanghai Masters 2026
Date
16 OCT
Court
Stadium Court
Order of play
Second match on court (not before 2:30 PM), not before 14:30 local (07:30 UK)
Status
4:6 6:4 6:3
Analysis onlyJOD07:30 UKRUUAnalysis only
No. 01 · The short versionAnalysis
Who will win Jodar vs Ruud?
Rafael Jodar plays Casper Ruud in the Shanghai Masters quarter-finals on Friday. Our pick: Jodar in three sets, analysis only.
- Predicted score
- 2:1
- Our pick
- 54–56%
- Our pick
- Rafael Jodar win
- Odds at publish
- 1.76
- Set by set
- 4:6, 6:4, 6:4
- Not before (UK)
- 07:30
Jodar vs Ruud at a glance
| Match | Rafael Jodar vs Casper Ruud |
|---|---|
| Tournament | ATP · Shanghai Masters, Shanghai · Quarter-final |
| Surface | Hard |
| Start | 16 OCT · 07:30 UK · 14:30 local |
| Court | Stadium Court · Second match on court (not before 2:30 PM) |
| Our pick | Rafael Jodar win · 1.76 · analysis only |
| Our estimate | 54–56% |
| Predicted score | 2:1 (4:6, 6:4, 6:4) |
| Main reason | He beat Thiago Agustin Tirante 4:6, 6:2, 6:3, Jiri Lehecka 4:6, 7:6(2), 6:4 and Botic van de Zandschulp 6:7(4), 6:4, 6:2, losing the first set every time. |
No. 02 · Form
Jodar vs Ruud: recent form
Jodar has come from a set down three times in Shanghai; Ruud has not dropped a set
Rafael JodarLast 10: 7-3
- Won v Shapovalov D. 7-5, 4-6, 7-5
- Won v Tabilo A. 6-2, 6-1
- Lost to Cobolli F. 4-6, 7-6(3), 6-3
- Lost to Yunchaokete B. 6-2, 6-1, 6-1
- Won v Garin C. 6-0, 6-2
- Won v Bublik A. 6-2, 6-3
- Lost to Vallejo A. 6-1, 6-3
- Won v Tirante T. 4-6, 6-2, 6-3
- Won v Lehecka J. 4-6, 7-6(2), 6-4
- Won v Van De Zandschulp B. 6(4)-7, 6-4, 6-2
Casper RuudLast 10: 7-3
- Won v Cerundolo J. 6-1, 6-2
- Lost to Fonseca J. 7-6(6), 6-3
- Lost to O'Connell C. 7-5, 1-2 ret.
- Won v Te R. 6-1, 7-6(1)
- Won v Nidunjianzan F. 6-2, 6-0
- Won v Cerundolo F. 6(4)-7, 6-4, 10-8
- Lost to Darderi L. 7-6(3), 6-3
- Won v Yunchaokete B. 6-1, 7-6(2)
- Won v Tien L. 6-4, 7-6(3)
- Won v Auger Aliassime F. 5-2 ret.
Last ten results, oldest to newest; the ringed one is the latest. Tap a result for the opponent and score.
Show the matches
| Won v | Van De Zandschulp B.Shanghai · 14.10.26 | 6(4)-7, 6-4, 6-2 |
| Won v | Lehecka J.Shanghai · 12.10.26 | 4-6, 7-6(2), 6-4 |
| Won v | Tirante T.Shanghai · 10.10.26 | 4-6, 6-2, 6-3 |
| Lost to | Vallejo A.Tokyo (Japan Open) · 01.10.26 | 6-1, 6-3 |
| Won v | Bublik A.Laver Cup · 25.09.26 | 6-2, 6-3 |
| Won v | Garin C.Davis Cup · 19.09.26 | 6-0, 6-2 |
| Lost to | Yunchaokete B.US Open · 02.09.26 | 6-2, 6-1, 6-1 |
| Lost to | Cobolli F.Cincinnati · 19.08.26 | 4-6, 7-6(3), 6-3 |
| Won v | Tabilo A.Cincinnati · 17.08.26 | 6-2, 6-1 |
| Won v | Shapovalov D.Cincinnati · 16.08.26 | 7-5, 4-6, 7-5 |
| Won v | Auger Aliassime F.Shanghai · 14.10.26 | 5-2 ret. |
| Won v | Tien L.Shanghai · 12.10.26 | 6-4, 7-6(3) |
| Won v | Yunchaokete B.Shanghai · 10.10.26 | 6-1, 7-6(2) |
| Lost to | Darderi L.Tokyo (Japan Open) · 01.10.26 | 7-6(3), 6-3 |
| Won v | Cerundolo F.Laver Cup · 25.09.26 | 6(4)-7, 6-4, 10-8 |
| Won v | Nidunjianzan F.Davis Cup · 19.09.26 | 6-2, 6-0 |
| Won v | Te R.Davis Cup · 18.09.26 | 6-1, 7-6(1) |
| Lost to | O'Connell C.Cincinnati · 16.08.26 | 7-5, 1-2 ret. |
| Lost to | Fonseca J.Montreal · 08.08.26 | 7-6(6), 6-3 |
| Won v | Cerundolo J.Montreal · 05.08.26 | 6-1, 6-2 |
Jodar’s weekHe beat Thiago Agustin Tirante 4:6, 6:2, 6:3, Jiri Lehecka 4:6, 7:6(2), 6:4 and Botic van de Zandschulp 6:7(4), 6:4, 6:2, losing the first set every time.
No. 03 · Context
A first meeting for a place in the Shanghai Masters semi-finals
- Ruud’s week
- He beat Bu Yunchaokete 6:1, 7:6(2) and Learner Tien 6:4, 7:6(3); Felix Auger-Aliassime retired when Ruud led 5:2 in the first set of their fourth-round match.
- Season and surface
- Jodar is 54-17 this season and 32-12 on hard courts. Ruud is 33-18 and 14-10 on hard courts.
- Head to head
- They have never played each other.
In the news
No. 04 · Stats comparison
Jodar wins 22.7% of his return games over his last ten matches with stats, Ruud 18.4%
| Stat | Jodar | Ruud |
|---|---|---|
| Season record | 54-17 (better) | 33-18 |
| On hard courts | 32-12 (better) | 14-10 |
| Last 10 matches | 7-3 | 7-3 |
| As favourite | 48-10 (better) | 29-11 |
| As underdog | 6-7 (better) | 4-6 |
| Stat | Jodar | Ruud |
|---|---|---|
| Aces per match | 3.5 | 6.6 (better) |
| Double faults per match | 2.7 (better) | 3.6 |
| 1st serve in | 62.3% | 64.2% (better) |
| 1st serve points won | 67.7% | 72.6% (better) |
| 2nd serve points won | 50.3% (better) | 49.6% |
| Service games held | 78.0% | 82.6% (better) |
| Break points saved | 66.7% (better) | 63.6% |
| Stat | Jodar | Ruud |
|---|---|---|
| Return points won | 37.4% (better) | 36.2% |
| Return games won | 22.7% (better) | 18.4% |
| Break points converted | 39.1% (better) | 30.4% |
Form rows: 2026 season to 14 October (Tennis Explorer). Serve and return: last 10 tour matches with stats to 7 October (Tennis Abstract), before Shanghai’s later rounds.. We read the data from Tennis Explorer, Tennis Abstract and the WTA and ATP tours, and form our own view.
No. 05 · Head to headFirst meeting.
First meeting
No. 06 · What others predictConsensus 2 of 2
Who do others back in Jodar vs Ruud?
| Source | Their view | Versus us |
|---|---|---|
| Dimers (model) | Jodar, 54% | Same side |
| Tennis Tonic | Jodar in three sets | Same side |
Our position2 of 2 back Jodar. We are on Jodar’s side.
No. 07 · Scenario & score
Jodar vs Ruud predicted score
Jodar in three sets
Jodar wins more return games over his last ten matches with stats (22.7% against 18.4%), and he keeps finding a way back after a slow first set. Ruud is fresher: five sets this week against Jodar’s nine. We expect 4:6, 6:4, 6:4. A Ruud win is just as real an outcome.
- Predicted score
- 2:1
- 4:6, 6:4, 6:4
- Alternative
- 1:2
- 6:4, 4:6, 4:6
No. 08 · Our pick
Our Jodar vs Ruud pick: Rafael Jodar win
Jodar to win, analysis only
Why analysis only
The prices are close and both players are in form, so either result is real. We are not sure enough of the result to stake on it.
Our pick54–56%
Our pickRafael Jodar win
Odds1.76
Main scenario2:1
- Our scenario
- 4:6, 6:4, 6:42:1 in sets
- Alternative
- 6:4, 4:6, 4:61:2 in sets
What would change our mind Any news about Jodar’s fitness after three three-set matches.
No. 09 · Arguing against ourselves
What could beat our pick?
- Ruud has played five sets in Shanghai, Jodar nine.
- Ruud holds serve more often over his last ten matches with stats (82.6% against 78.0%).
- Jodar lost his only match in Tokyo as a heavy favourite, to Adolfo Daniel Vallejo.