Swiatek's physio told her three times to stop. Now a Ningbo title alone is not enough
Our take Tokyo, not Ningbo, decides Swiatek's season
Tennis · WTA · Wuhan Open, Wuhan · WTA 1000 · Quarter-final · Hard
Ann LivsIga Swiatek prediction · Wuhan Open 2026
Date
16 OCT
Court
Center Court
Order of play
Fourth match on court (not before 7:00 PM), not before 19:00 local (12:00 UK)
Status
4:6 1:6
Analysis onlyLI12:00 UKSWIAnalysis only
No. 01 · The short versionAnalysis
Who will win Li vs Swiatek?
Ann Li plays Iga Swiatek in the Wuhan Open quarter-finals on Friday evening. Our pick: Swiatek to win, most likely 6:3, 6:4, analysis only.
- Predicted score
- 0:2
- Our pick
- 79–81%
- Our pick
- Iga Swiatek win
- Odds at publish
- 1.19
- Set by set
- 3:6, 4:6
- Not before (UK)
- 12:00
Li vs Swiatek at a glance
| Match | Ann Li vs Iga Swiatek |
|---|---|
| Tournament | WTA · Wuhan Open, Wuhan · Quarter-final |
| Surface | Hard |
| Start | 16 OCT · 12:00 UK · 19:00 local |
| Court | Center Court · Fourth match on court (not before 7:00 PM) |
| Our pick | Iga Swiatek win · 1.19 · analysis only |
| Our estimate | 79–81% |
| Predicted score | 0:2 (3:6, 4:6) |
| Main reason | She beat Magdalena Frech 6:2, 6:1 and Ashlyn Krueger 6:1, 6:4. |
No. 02 · Form
Li vs Swiatek: recent form
Swiatek has dropped five games in two matches; Li has beaten Sabalenka and won three matches in three days
Ann LiLast 10: 7-3
- Lost to Parry D. 7-6(7), 6-4
- Won v Ruzic A. 7-5, 6-1
- Won v Vekic D. 5-7, 7-6(4), 6-4
- Lost to Noskova L. 6-2, 6(6)-7, 6-2
- Won v Krueger A. 6-4, 6-2
- Won v Bencic B. 6-4, 6-3
- Lost to Svitolina E. 6-2, 6-3
- Won v Osorio C. 6-1, 3-0 ret.
- Won v Sabalenka A. 3-6, 6-4, 7-6(5)
- Won v Tjen J. 6-1, 7-6(1)
Iga SwiatekLast 10: 8-2
- Won v Wang X. 6-2, 6-3
- Won v Podoroska N. 6-3, 6-2
- Won v Bouzkova M. 7-6(3), 7-6(3)
- Lost to Zheng Q. 7-5, 6-3
- Won v Gao X. 6-2, 6-3
- Won v Vekic D. 4-6, 7-6(0), 6-2
- Won v Jovic I. 6-1, 6-3
- Lost to Mertens E. 7-6(0), 6-3
- Won v Frech M. 6-2, 6-1
- Won v Krueger A. 6-1, 6-4
Last ten results, oldest to newest; the ringed one is the latest. Tap a result for the opponent and score.
Show the matches
| Won v | Tjen J.Wuhan · 15.10.26 | 6-1, 7-6(1) |
| Won v | Sabalenka A.Wuhan · 14.10.26 | 3-6, 6-4, 7-6(5) |
| Won v | Osorio C.Wuhan · 13.10.26 | 6-1, 3-0 ret. |
| Lost to | Svitolina E.Beijing · 07.10.26 | 6-2, 6-3 |
| Won v | Bencic B.Beijing · 05.10.26 | 6-4, 6-3 |
| Won v | Krueger A.Beijing · 03.10.26 | 6-4, 6-2 |
| Lost to | Noskova L.US Open · 04.09.26 | 6-2, 6(6)-7, 6-2 |
| Won v | Vekic D.US Open · 03.09.26 | 5-7, 7-6(4), 6-4 |
| Won v | Ruzic A.US Open · 31.08.26 | 7-5, 6-1 |
| Lost to | Parry D.Monterrey · 29.08.26 | 7-6(7), 6-4 |
| Won v | Krueger A.Wuhan · 15.10.26 | 6-1, 6-4 |
| Won v | Frech M.Wuhan · 14.10.26 | 6-2, 6-1 |
| Lost to | Mertens E.Beijing · 09.10.26 | 7-6(0), 6-3 |
| Won v | Jovic I.Beijing · 07.10.26 | 6-1, 6-3 |
| Won v | Vekic D.Beijing · 05.10.26 | 4-6, 7-6(0), 6-2 |
| Won v | Gao X.Beijing · 03.10.26 | 6-2, 6-3 |
| Lost to | Zheng Q.US Open · 07.09.26 | 7-5, 6-3 |
| Won v | Bouzkova M.US Open · 05.09.26 | 7-6(3), 7-6(3) |
| Won v | Podoroska N.US Open · 03.09.26 | 6-3, 6-2 |
| Won v | Wang X.US Open · 01.09.26 | 6-2, 6-3 |
Swiatek this weekShe beat Magdalena Frech 6:2, 6:1 and Ashlyn Krueger 6:1, 6:4. Her last defeat came in the Beijing quarter-finals against Elise Mertens on 9 October.
No. 03 · Context
A rematch of Madrid in April, for a place in the Wuhan Open semi-finals
- Li’s run
- She beat Camila Osorio, who retired at 6:1, 3:0, the world number one Aryna Sabalenka 3:6, 6:4, 7:6(5) and Janice Tjen 6:1, 7:6(1), three matches on three straight days.
- Season and surface
- Swiatek is 41-15 this season and 30-9 on hard courts. Li is 29-24 and 18-15 on hard courts.
- Head to head
- Li leads 1-0: she won their only meeting, on clay in Madrid in April, 7:6(4), 2:6, 3:0 when Swiatek retired.
In the news
Muchova is 10-0 in tiebreaks. Shnaider beat her without needing one
Our take The last seat is now Swiatek's to take
No. 04 · Stats comparison
Swiatek wins 46.4% of her return games this season, Li 30.5%
| Stat | Li | Swiatek |
|---|---|---|
| Season record | 29-24 | 41-15 (better) |
| On hard courts | 18-15 | 30-9 (better) |
| Last 10 matches | 7-3 | 8-2 (better) |
| As favourite | 21-12 | 41-14 (better) |
| As underdog | 8-12 (better) | 0-1 |
| Stat | Li | Swiatek |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 49 | 54 |
| Aces per match | 5.1 (better) | 2.0 |
| Double faults per match | 2.9 | 2.9 |
| 1st serve in | 58.7% | 66.3% (better) |
| 1st serve points won | 68.4% (better) | 66.9% |
| 2nd serve points won | 45.2% | 50.1% (better) |
| Service games held | 70.5% | 73.6% (better) |
| Break points saved | 59.3% (better) | 59.2% |
| Stat | Li | Swiatek |
|---|---|---|
| Return points won | 41.7% | 48.2% (better) |
| Return games won | 30.5% | 46.4% (better) |
| Break points converted | 43.8% | 50.7% (better) |
Form rows: 2026 season to 15 October (Tennis Explorer). Serve and return: 2026 season, official WTA stats.. We read the data from Tennis Explorer, Tennis Abstract and the WTA and ATP tours, and form our own view.
No. 05 · Head to head1 meetings
Li leads 1-0
| 2026 | LiMadrid 1000 · Clay · R32 | 7-6(4) 2-6 3-0 |
No. 06 · What others predictConsensus 1 of 1
Who do others back in Li vs Swiatek?
| Source | Their view | Versus us |
|---|---|---|
| Tennis Abstract Elo | Swiatek, 80.8% | Same side |
Our position1 of 1 back Swiatek. We are on Swiatek’s side.
No. 07 · Scenario & score
Li vs Swiatek predicted score
Swiatek in two sets
Swiatek breaks serve in 46.4% of her return games this season, against 30.5% for Li, and wins 50.1% of the points behind her second serve. Li serves more aces (5.1 a match against 2.0), so expect tight service games early. We expect 6:3, 6:4 for Swiatek. A Li set on a tie-break is the alternative.
- Predicted score
- 0:2
- 3:6, 4:6
- Alternative
- 1:2
- 7:6, 4:6, 3:6
No. 08 · Our pick
Our Li vs Swiatek pick: Iga Swiatek win
Swiatek to win, analysis only
Why analysis only
Swiatek is too short a price for a bet on the match, and a straight-sets win needs Li to fade after three tough days. We could not find a straight-sets price this morning, and we are not sure enough of that score to stake on it.
Our pick79–81%
Our pickIga Swiatek win
Odds1.19
Main scenario0:2
- Our scenario
- 3:6, 4:60:2 in sets
- Alternative
- 7:6, 4:6, 3:61:2 in sets
What would change our mind News that Swiatek is carrying a problem from Beijing or Wuhan, or Li showing signs of fatigue early after three matches in three days.
No. 09 · Arguing against ourselves
What could beat our pick?
- Li is in the best week of her season: a win over the world number one and seven sets in three days without a slip in level.
- Li won their only previous meeting, even if Swiatek retired that day.
- Swiatek lost to Elise Mertens in Beijing a week ago.