Tennis · WTA · Wuhan Open, Wuhan · WTA 1000 · Second round · Hard
Jelena OstapenkovsJessica Pegula prediction · Wuhan Open 2026
Date
14 OCT
Court
Dongfeng Voyah Center Court
Order of play
Third match on court, after Frech v Swiatek and Muchova v McNally, not before 11:00 local (04:00 UK)
Status
2:6 7:6 6:3
Analysis onlyOST04:00 UKPEGAnalysis only
No. 01 · The short versionAnalysis
Who will win Ostapenko vs Pegula?
Jessica Pegula, the second seed, plays Jelena Ostapenko in the Wuhan Open second round on Wednesday in her first match for 33 days. Our pick: Pegula in three sets, analysis only.
- Predicted score
- 1:2
- Our pick
- 62–66%
- Our pick
- Jessica Pegula win
- Odds at publish
- 1.44
- Set by set
- 6:4, 3:6, 4:6
- Not before (UK)
- 04:00
Ostapenko vs Pegula at a glance
| Match | Jelena Ostapenko vs Jessica Pegula |
|---|---|
| Tournament | WTA · Wuhan Open, Wuhan · Second round |
| Surface | Hard |
| Start | 14 OCT · 04:00 UK · 11:00 local |
| Court | Dongfeng Voyah Center Court · Third match on court, after Frech v Swiatek and Muchova v McNally |
| Our pick | Jessica Pegula win · 1.44 · analysis only |
| Our estimate | 62–66% |
| Predicted score | 1:2 (6:4, 3:6, 4:6) |
| Main reason | Her last match was the US Open semi-final on 11 September, lost to Aryna Sabalenka 5:7, 2:6. |
No. 02 · Form
Ostapenko vs Pegula: recent form
Pegula has not played since 11 September; Ostapenko lost two games on Tuesday
Jelena OstapenkoLast 10: 4-6
- Won v Ruzic A. 6-2, 6-0
- Lost to Sabalenka A. 6-4, 6-4
- Lost to Zhang S. 6-0, 4-0 ret.
- Lost to Frech M. 6-1, 6-3
- Lost to Maria T. 4-6, 6-1, 6-2
- Won v Zakharova A. 6-4, 6-1
- Lost to Preston T. 6-4, 6-1
- Won v Badosa P. 7-6(5), 7-5
- Lost to Mertens E. 6-2, 3-6, 6-3
- Won v Kasatkina D. 6-1, 6-1
Jessica PegulaLast 10: 8-2
- Won v Cirstea S. 6-2, 4-6, 7-5
- Won v Anisimova A. 6-4, 2-6, 7-6(4)
- Won v Swiatek I. 7-5, 4-6, 6-4
- Lost to Gauff C. 6-2, 6-4
- Won v Ruse E. 6-3, 6-2
- Won v Kenin S. 6-3, 6-1
- Won v Fernandez L. 1-6, 6-4, 6-3
- Won v Cirstea S. 6-3, 6-4
- Won v Navarro E. 3-6, 6-4, 6-3
- Lost to Sabalenka A. 7-5, 6-2
Last ten results, oldest to newest; the ringed one is the latest. Tap a result for the opponent and score.
Show the matches
| Won v | Kasatkina D.Wuhan · 13.10.26 | 6-1, 6-1 |
| Lost to | Mertens E.Beijing · 05.10.26 | 6-2, 3-6, 6-3 |
| Won v | Badosa P.Beijing · 03.10.26 | 7-6(5), 7-5 |
| Lost to | Preston T.Seoul WTA · 24.09.26 | 6-4, 6-1 |
| Won v | Zakharova A.Seoul WTA · 22.09.26 | 6-4, 6-1 |
| Lost to | Maria T.US Open · 02.09.26 | 4-6, 6-1, 6-2 |
| Lost to | Frech M.Cincinnati WTA · 15.08.26 | 6-1, 6-3 |
| Lost to | Zhang S.Toronto WTA · 04.08.26 | 6-0, 4-0 ret. |
| Lost to | Sabalenka A.Wimbledon · 03.07.26 | 6-4, 6-4 |
| Won v | Ruzic A.Wimbledon · 01.07.26 | 6-2, 6-0 |
| Lost to | Sabalenka A.US Open · 11.09.26 | 7-5, 6-2 |
| Won v | Navarro E.US Open · 09.09.26 | 3-6, 6-4, 6-3 |
| Won v | Cirstea S.US Open · 07.09.26 | 6-3, 6-4 |
| Won v | Fernandez L.US Open · 04.09.26 | 1-6, 6-4, 6-3 |
| Won v | Kenin S.US Open · 02.09.26 | 6-3, 6-1 |
| Won v | Ruse E.US Open · 30.08.26 | 6-3, 6-2 |
| Lost to | Gauff C.Cincinnati WTA · 24.08.26 | 6-2, 6-4 |
| Won v | Swiatek I.Cincinnati WTA · 22.08.26 | 7-5, 4-6, 6-4 |
| Won v | Anisimova A.Cincinnati WTA · 20.08.26 | 6-4, 2-6, 7-6(4) |
| Won v | Cirstea S.Cincinnati WTA · 19.08.26 | 6-2, 4-6, 7-5 |
Pegula’s breakHer last match was the US Open semi-final on 11 September, lost to Aryna Sabalenka 5:7, 2:6. On 25 September the WTA announced she had withdrawn from the China Open in Beijing with an unspecified injury.
No. 03 · Context
The second seed’s first match after an injury break
- Ostapenko this autumn
- She beat Daria Kasatkina 6:1, 6:1 in the Wuhan first round on 13 October. In Beijing she beat Paula Badosa and lost to Elise Mertens in three sets; in Seoul she lost to Taylah Preston as the favourite.
- Season and surface
- Pegula is 50-13 this season and 34-8 on hard courts; she reached the Cincinnati final in August. Ostapenko is 24-20 and 12-13 on hard courts.
- Head to head
- Pegula leads 4-2. Their last meeting was at Indian Wells in March 2026: Pegula won 4:6, 6:3, 6:2.
No. 04 · Stats comparison
Pegula is 34-8 on hard courts this season, Ostapenko 12-13
| Stat | Ostapenko | Pegula |
|---|---|---|
| Season record | 24-20 | 50-13 (better) |
| On hard courts | 12-13 | 34-8 (better) |
| Last 10 matches | 4-6 | 8-2 (better) |
| As favourite | 18-8 | 47-7 (better) |
| As underdog | 6-12 | 3-6 |
| Stat | Ostapenko | Pegula |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 43 | 63 |
| Aces per match | 3.9 | 4.3 (better) |
| Double faults per match | 6.4 | 1.8 (better) |
| 1st serve in | 56.7% | 62.0% (better) |
| 1st serve points won | 67.2% | 69.8% (better) |
| 2nd serve points won | 41.6% | 50.1% (better) |
| Service games held | 64.6% | 76.2% (better) |
| Break points saved | 54.3% | 58.5% (better) |
| Stat | Ostapenko | Pegula |
|---|---|---|
| Return points won | 44.6% | 45.3% (better) |
| Return games won | 38.1% (better) | 37.7% |
| Break points converted | 50.1% (better) | 43.1% |
Form rows: 2026 season to 13 October (Tennis Explorer). Serve and return: 2026 season, official WTA stats.. We read the data from Tennis Explorer, Tennis Abstract and the WTA and ATP tours, and form our own view.
No. 05 · Head to head6 meetings
Pegula leads 4-2
| 2026 | PegulaIndian Wells · Hard · R32 | 4-6 6-3 6-2 |
| 2023 | OstapenkoBeijing · Hard · R16 | 6-4 6-2 |
| 2023 | PegulaDoha · Hard · R16 | 6-2 2-6 7-5 |
| 2021 | PegulaDoha · Hard · R16 | 6-2 7-5 |
| 2015 | OstapenkoQuebec City · Carpet · R16 | 3-6 6-2 7-6(3) |
| 2015 | Pegula's-Hertogenbosch · Grass · Q | 4-6 7-5 6-4 |
No. 06 · What others predictConsensus 2 of 2
Who do others back in Ostapenko vs Pegula?
| Source | Their view | Versus us |
|---|---|---|
| Dimers (model) | Pegula, 66.0% | Same side |
| Tennis Abstract Elo | Pegula, 86.2% | Same side |
Our position2 of 2 back Pegula. We are on Pegula’s side.
No. 07 · Scenario & score
Ostapenko vs Pegula predicted score
Pegula in three sets
Ostapenko hits hard and early from the first ball and can take a set while Pegula finds her rhythm after five weeks off. Over three sets we expect Pegula’s consistency to tell: 4:6, 6:3, 6:4. An Ostapenko win is a real outcome if Pegula is not fully fit.
- Predicted score
- 1:2
- 6:4, 3:6, 4:6
- Alternative
- 2:1
- 6:3, 4:6, 6:4
No. 08 · Our pick
Our Ostapenko vs Pegula pick: Jessica Pegula win
Pegula to win, analysis only
Why analysis only
We expect Pegula to win, but she has not played for 33 days and withdrew from Beijing with an unspecified injury. We are not sure enough of the result to stake on it.
Our pick62–66%
Our pickJessica Pegula win
Odds1.44
Main scenario1:2
- Our scenario
- 6:4, 3:6, 4:61:2 in sets
- Alternative
- 6:3, 4:6, 6:42:1 in sets
What would change our mind Any news about Pegula’s fitness before the match.
No. 09 · Arguing against ourselves
What could beat our pick?
- Pegula has not played for 33 days and the injury that kept her out of Beijing was never named.
- Ostapenko lost only two games against Kasatkina on Tuesday.
- Ostapenko beat Pegula in Beijing in 2023.