Paolini vs Bartunkova prediction · Wuhan Open

No. 01 · The short versionAnalysis

Who will win Paolini vs Bartunkova?

Nikola Bartunkova, a Beijing semi-finalist, plays Jasmine Paolini in the Wuhan Open second round on Wednesday, a day after a three-set win over Lilli Tagger. Our pick: Paolini in three sets, analysis only.

Predicted score: 2:1
Our pick: 50–54%

Why analysis only18+Play responsibly

Our pick: Jasmine Paolini win
Odds at publish: 2.38
Set by set: 4:6, 6:4, 6:3
Not before (UK): 04:00

Paolini vs Bartunkova at a glance

Match	Jasmine Paolini vs Nikola Bartunkova
Tournament	WTA · Wuhan Open, Wuhan · Second round
Surface	Hard
Start	14 OCT · 04:00 UK · 11:00 local
Court	Court 1 · Second match on court, after Svitolina v Samsonova
Our pick	Jasmine Paolini win · 2.38 · analysis only
Our estimate	50–54%
Predicted score	2:1 (4:6, 6:4, 6:3)
Main reason	In Beijing she beat Magdalena Frech, Aryna Sabalenka 6:4, 6:3, Sinja Kraus and Karolina Muchova 6:3, 6:0, then lost the semi-final to Mirra Andreeva on 10 October.

No. 02 · Form

Paolini vs Bartunkova: recent form

Bartunkova has played 14 sets in 14 days; Paolini 5

Jasmine PaoliniLast 10: 6-4

Won v Sakkari M. 6-1, 6-2
Won v Eala A. 6-4, 4-6, 6-3
Lost to Kostyuk M. 6-3, 6-2
Won v Erjavec V. 6-3, 3-6, 6-4
Won v Stefanini L. 6-4, 6-1
Lost to Cirstea S. 6-3, 6-3
Won v Zheng Q. 6-3, 7-6(4)
Lost to Svitolina E. 6-2, 6-2
Lost to Snigur D. 3-6, 7-6(5), 6-2
Won v Bejlek S. 6-3, 6-4

Nikola BartunkovaLast 10: 7-3

Lost to Mertens E. 1-6, 6-4, 6-2
Won v Sherif M. 6-1, 6-2
Won v Maria T. 6(5)-7, 6-2, 6-3
Lost to Andreeva M. 6-2, 7-6(5)
Won v Frech M. 6-2, 6-2
Won v Sabalenka A. 6-4, 6-3
Won v Kraus S. 6-0, 4-6, 6-3
Won v Muchova K. 6-3, 6-0
Lost to Andreeva M. 6-2, 6-2
Won v Tagger L. 7-6(4), 2-6, 6-1

Last ten results, oldest to newest; the ringed one is the latest. Tap a result for the opponent and score.

Show the matches

Jasmine Paolini
Won v	Bejlek S.Wuhan · 12.10.26	6-3, 6-4
Lost to	Snigur D.Beijing · 02.10.26	3-6, 7-6(5), 6-2
Lost to	Svitolina E.Billie Jean King Cup · 26.09.26	6-2, 6-2
Won v	Zheng Q.Billie Jean King Cup · 24.09.26	6-3, 7-6(4)
Lost to	Cirstea S.US Open · 04.09.26	6-3, 6-3
Won v	Stefanini L.US Open · 02.09.26	6-4, 6-1
Won v	Erjavec V.US Open · 30.08.26	6-3, 3-6, 6-4
Lost to	Kostyuk M.Wimbledon · 08.07.26	6-3, 6-2
Won v	Eala A.Wimbledon · 06.07.26	6-4, 4-6, 6-3
Won v	Sakkari M.Wimbledon · 04.07.26	6-1, 6-2

Nikola Bartunkova
Won v	Tagger L.Wuhan · 13.10.26	7-6(4), 2-6, 6-1
Lost to	Andreeva M.Beijing · 10.10.26	6-2, 6-2
Won v	Muchova K.Beijing · 08.10.26	6-3, 6-0
Won v	Kraus S.Beijing · 06.10.26	6-0, 4-6, 6-3
Won v	Sabalenka A.Beijing · 04.10.26	6-4, 6-3
Won v	Frech M.Beijing · 02.10.26	6-2, 6-2
Lost to	Andreeva M.US Open · 05.09.26	6-2, 7-6(5)
Won v	Maria T.US Open · 03.09.26	6(5)-7, 6-2, 6-3
Won v	Sherif M.US Open · 02.09.26	6-1, 6-2
Lost to	Mertens E.Monterrey · 29.08.26	1-6, 6-4, 6-2

Bartunkova’s fortnightIn Beijing she beat Magdalena Frech, Aryna Sabalenka 6:4, 6:3, Sinja Kraus and Karolina Muchova 6:3, 6:0, then lost the semi-final to Mirra Andreeva on 10 October. In Wuhan she beat Lilli Tagger 7:6(4), 2:6, 6:1 on 13 October.

No. 03 · Context

A Beijing semi-finalist the day after a three-setter against the 15th seed

Paolini this autumn: She beat Sara Bejlek 6:3, 6:4 in the Wuhan first round on 12 October. In Beijing she lost to Daria Snigur in three sets; at the Billie Jean King Cup she beat Zheng Qinwen and lost to Elina Svitolina.
Season and surface: Bartunkova is 39-21 this season and 26-12 on hard courts. Paolini is 20-16 and 11-9 on hard courts.
Head to head: They have never met.

No. 04 · Stats comparison

Bartunkova is 26-12 on hard courts this season, Paolini 11-9

Stat	Paolini	Bartunkova
Season record	20-16	39-21 (better)
On hard courts	11-9	26-12 (better)
Last 10 matches	6-4	7-3 (better)
As favourite	16-12	27-8 (better)
As underdog	4-4 (better)	12-13

Stat	Paolini	Bartunkova
Matches	32	38
Aces per match	1.7	4.6 (better)
Double faults per match	2.1 (better)	4.2
1st serve in	66.4% (better)	52.0%
1st serve points won	60.7%	69.3% (better)
2nd serve points won	47.4%	47.6% (better)
Service games held	65.1%	70.7% (better)
Break points saved	59.9% (better)	55.7%

Stat	Paolini	Bartunkova
Return points won	44.0% (better)	43.1%
Return games won	36.9% (better)	34.3%
Break points converted	45.1%	45.4% (better)

Form rows: 2026 season to 13 October (Tennis Explorer). Serve and return: 2026 season, official WTA stats.. We read the data from Tennis Explorer, Tennis Abstract and the WTA and ATP tours, and form our own view.

No. 05 · Head to headFirst meeting.

First meeting

No. 06 · What others predictConsensus 2 of 2

Who do others back in Paolini vs Bartunkova?

Source	Their view	Versus us
Dimers (model)	Bartunkova, 56.6%	Other side
Tennis Abstract Elo	Bartunkova, 61.3%	Other side

Our position2 of 2 back Bartunkova. We are on Paolini’s side.

No. 07 · Scenario & score

Paolini vs Bartunkova predicted score

Paolini in three sets

Bartunkova has the bigger game and will want short points early. If the match goes long, the third match in four days counts against her, and both also play doubles later the same day. We expect Paolini to win 4:6, 6:4, 6:3; a Bartunkova win in two sets is the main alternative.

Predicted score: 2:1; 4:6, 6:4, 6:3
Alternative: 0:2; 4:6, 4:6

No. 08 · Our pick

Our Paolini vs Bartunkova pick: Jasmine Paolini win

Paolini to win, analysis only

Why analysis only

Both results are realistic: the models favour Bartunkova, her workload favours Paolini. We are not sure enough of the result to stake on it.

Our pick50–54%

Our pickJasmine Paolini win

Odds2.38

Main scenario2:1

Our scenario: 4:6, 6:4, 6:32:1 in sets
Alternative: 4:6, 4:60:2 in sets

What would change our mind Nothing for a bet: this is an analysis only.

No. 09 · Arguing against ourselves

What could beat our pick?

Bartunkova beat Sabalenka and Muchova two weeks ago.
Paolini has lost three of her last five matches and is 11-9 on hard courts this season.
Both models we checked favour Bartunkova.