Tennis · WTA · Wuhan Open, Wuhan · WTA 1000 · Quarter-final · Hard
Elina SvitolinavsSonay Kartal prediction · Wuhan Open 2026
Date
16 OCT
Court
Center Court
Order of play
Second match on court (not before 12:30 PM), not before 12:30 local (05:30 UK)
Status
2:6 6:2 4:6
Analysis onlySVI05:30 UKKARAnalysis only
No. 01 · The short versionAnalysis
Who will win Svitolina vs Kartal?
Elina Svitolina plays Sonay Kartal in the Wuhan Open quarter-finals on Friday. Our pick: Svitolina in three sets, analysis only.
- Predicted score
- 2:1
- Our pick
- 62–65%
- Our pick
- Elina Svitolina win
- Odds at publish
- 1.48
- Set by set
- 6:3, 4:6, 6:4
- Not before (UK)
- 05:30
Svitolina vs Kartal at a glance
| Match | Elina Svitolina vs Sonay Kartal |
|---|---|
| Tournament | WTA · Wuhan Open, Wuhan · Quarter-final |
| Surface | Hard |
| Start | 16 OCT · 05:30 UK · 12:30 local |
| Court | Center Court · Second match on court (not before 12:30 PM) |
| Our pick | Elina Svitolina win · 1.48 · analysis only |
| Our estimate | 62–65% |
| Predicted score | 2:1 (6:3, 4:6, 6:4) |
| Main reason | After a first-round bye she beat Liudmila Samsonova 6:2, 5:7, 6:2 and Guo Hanyu 6:1, 6:4. |
No. 02 · Form
Svitolina vs Kartal: recent form
Kartal beat Bencic 6:0, 7:5 and Paolini 6:2, 6:0; Svitolina won her last two in Wuhan
Elina SvitolinaLast 10: 6-4
- Lost to Kalinskaya A. 6-3, 2-6, 6-3
- Lost to Minnen G. 6(5)-7, 6-4, 6-4
- Won v Paolini J. 6-2, 6-2
- Lost to Noskova L. 6-3, 7-6(5)
- Won v Siniakova K. 1-6, 6-4, 6-2
- Won v Sakkari M. 6-4, 7-5
- Won v Li A. 6-2, 6-3
- Lost to Zheng Q. 6-3, 7-6(6)
- Won v Samsonova L. 6-2, 5-7, 6-2
- Won v Guo H. 6-1, 6-4
Sonay KartalLast 10: 7-3
- Won v Navarro E. 6-1, 3-6, 7-6(2)
- Won v Keys M. 2-6, 6-2, 6-3
- Lost to Rybakina E. 6-4, 4-3 ret.
- Lost to Bouzkova M. 7-6(2), 4-6, 6-4
- Won v Lazaro Garcia A. 6-2, 6-3
- Won v Wang X. 6-3, 6-2
- Lost to Charaeva A. 6-4, 6-1
- Won v Kalinina A. 7-5, 6-3
- Won v Bencic B. 6-0, 7-5
- Won v Paolini J. 6-2, 6-0
Last ten results, oldest to newest; the ringed one is the latest. Tap a result for the opponent and score.
Show the matches
| Won v | Guo H.Wuhan · 15.10.26 | 6-1, 6-4 |
| Won v | Samsonova L.Wuhan · 14.10.26 | 6-2, 5-7, 6-2 |
| Lost to | Zheng Q.Beijing · 09.10.26 | 6-3, 7-6(6) |
| Won v | Li A.Beijing · 07.10.26 | 6-2, 6-3 |
| Won v | Sakkari M.Beijing · 05.10.26 | 6-4, 7-5 |
| Won v | Siniakova K.Beijing · 03.10.26 | 1-6, 6-4, 6-2 |
| Lost to | Noskova L.Billie Jean King Cup · 27.09.26 | 6-3, 7-6(5) |
| Won v | Paolini J.Billie Jean King Cup · 26.09.26 | 6-2, 6-2 |
| Lost to | Minnen G.Billie Jean King Cup · 24.09.26 | 6(5)-7, 6-4, 6-4 |
| Lost to | Kalinskaya A.US Open · 05.09.26 | 6-3, 2-6, 6-3 |
| Won v | Paolini J.Wuhan · 15.10.26 | 6-2, 6-0 |
| Won v | Bencic B.Wuhan · 14.10.26 | 6-0, 7-5 |
| Won v | Kalinina A.Wuhan · 12.10.26 | 7-5, 6-3 |
| Lost to | Charaeva A.Beijing · 05.10.26 | 6-4, 6-1 |
| Won v | Wang X.Beijing · 03.10.26 | 6-3, 6-2 |
| Won v | Lazaro Garcia A.Beijing · 01.10.26 | 6-2, 6-3 |
| Lost to | Bouzkova M.Billie Jean King Cup · 22.09.26 | 7-6(2), 4-6, 6-4 |
| Lost to | Rybakina E.Indian Wells · 12.03.26 | 6-4, 4-3 ret. |
| Won v | Keys M.Indian Wells · 10.03.26 | 2-6, 6-2, 6-3 |
| Won v | Navarro E.Indian Wells · 07.03.26 | 6-1, 3-6, 7-6(2) |
Svitolina this weekAfter a first-round bye she beat Liudmila Samsonova 6:2, 5:7, 6:2 and Guo Hanyu 6:1, 6:4. In Beijing she reached the quarter-finals and lost to Zheng Qinwen 3:6, 6:7(6).
No. 03 · Context
The fifth seed against a player ranked 170 on her way back after a long break
- Kartal’s run
- She beat Anastasia Kalinina 7:5, 6:3, Belinda Bencic 6:0, 7:5 and Jasmine Paolini 6:2, 6:0. Her ranking is 170: between Indian Wells in March, where she retired against Elena Rybakina, and the Billie Jean King Cup in September she played no matches.
- Season and surface
- Svitolina is 49-18 this season and 32-10 on hard courts. Kartal is 16-8 and 16-7 on hard courts.
- Head to head
- Svitolina leads 2-0: 6:3, 6:1 in Madrid in 2025 and 6:4, 6:7(2), 7:6(5) in the Auckland quarter-finals in January.
No. 04 · Stats comparison
Svitolina wins 42.2% of her return games this season, Kartal 34.6%
| Stat | Svitolina | Kartal |
|---|---|---|
| Season record | 49-18 (better) | 16-8 |
| On hard courts | 32-10 (better) | 16-7 |
| Last 10 matches | 6-4 | 7-3 (better) |
| As favourite | 42-12 (better) | 13-4 |
| As underdog | 7-6 (better) | 3-4 |
| Stat | Svitolina | Kartal |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 60 | 15 |
| Aces per match | 3.5 (better) | 1.9 |
| Double faults per match | 3.3 | 1.1 (better) |
| 1st serve in | 60.1% | 65.3% (better) |
| 1st serve points won | 66.6% (better) | 65.7% |
| 2nd serve points won | 47.4% | 51.7% (better) |
| Service games held | 72.2% (better) | 71.4% |
| Break points saved | 63.3% (better) | 50.5% |
| Stat | Svitolina | Kartal |
|---|---|---|
| Return points won | 46.6% (better) | 43.2% |
| Return games won | 42.2% (better) | 34.6% |
| Break points converted | 50.7% (better) | 45.4% |
Form rows: 2026 season to 14 October (Tennis Explorer). Serve and return: 2026 season, official WTA stats.. We read the data from Tennis Explorer, Tennis Abstract and the WTA and ATP tours, and form our own view.
No. 05 · Head to head2 meetings
Svitolina leads 2-0
| 2026 | SvitolinaAuckland · Hard · QF | 6-4 6-7(2) 7-6(5) |
| 2025 | SvitolinaMadrid · Clay · R64 | 6-3 6-1 |
No. 06 · What others predictConsensus 2 of 2
Who do others back in Svitolina vs Kartal?
| Source | Their view | Versus us |
|---|---|---|
| Dimers (model) | Svitolina, 61.9% | Same side |
| Tennis Abstract Elo | Svitolina, 72% | Same side |
Our position2 of 2 back Svitolina. We are on Svitolina’s side.
No. 07 · Scenario & score
Svitolina vs Kartal predicted score
Svitolina in three sets
Svitolina is the stronger returner (42.2% of return games won this season against 34.6%), but Kartal has not dropped a set in Wuhan and their last meeting went to a final-set tie-break. We expect 6:3, 4:6, 6:4. A Kartal win is a real outcome.
- Predicted score
- 2:1
- 6:3, 4:6, 6:4
- Alternative
- 2:0
- 6:4, 6:4
No. 08 · Our pick
Our Svitolina vs Kartal pick: Elina Svitolina win
Svitolina to win, analysis only
Why analysis only
Kartal is playing the best tennis of her season and the price on Svitolina is above the range we stake at. We are not sure enough of the result to stake on it.
Our pick62–65%
Our pickElina Svitolina win
Odds1.48
Main scenario2:1
- Our scenario
- 6:3, 4:6, 6:42:1 in sets
- Alternative
- 6:4, 6:42:0 in sets
What would change our mind Any news about Svitolina’s fitness, or another one-sided start from Kartal.
No. 09 · Arguing against ourselves
What could beat our pick?
- Kartal conceded only two games to Jasmine Paolini and three of her last ten wins came as the underdog.
- Svitolina lost three of her last ten matches as the favourite.
- Their last meeting, in Auckland in January, went to a final-set tie-break.