Double · No. 52 · 5 OCTWon
Italy vs Türkiye + France vs Belgium
- 01Italy vs TürkiyeItaly win1.39 · Won
- 02France vs BelgiumFrance or draw1.16 · Won
- Total odds
- 1.61
- Stake
- 3.00 units
- P&L
- +1.83 units
- Our estimate
- 59–64%
Published 5 OCT 12:3718+Play responsibly
Why this betItaly at home to a Türkiye side with no points and six key absences; France or draw against a strong Belgium without De Bruyne and Tielemans. Both legs pass our scenario test: Italy win by any margin, France avoid defeat.
Leg 1 · Football · Europe · UEFA Nations League · 5 OCT · 19:45 UK
Italy vs Türkiye
Italy win1.39Won
Why this pickItaly won 4–1 in Bursa and drew in France; Türkiye have lost every group game and miss six key players. We need a win by any margin, so no handicap.
- Predicted score · alt 2:1
- 2:0
- Our estimate · Italy win
- 70–73%
Form · Italy 4 from 9. Türkiye 0 from 9.
Italy4 pts
- Drawvs France1:1
- Winvs Türkiye4:1
- Lossvs Belgium0:2
- Goals scored per game in these matches.
- 1.67
- Goals conceded per game in these matches.
- 1.33
- Share of these matches with three or more goals.
- 33.3%
- Both teams to score: share of these matches in which both sides scored.
- 66.7%
Türkiye0 pts
- Lossvs Belgium0:3
- Lossvs Italy1:4
- Lossvs France0:1
- Goals scored per game in these matches.
- 0.33
- Goals conceded per game in these matches.
- 2.67
- Share of these matches with three or more goals.
- 66.7%
- Both teams to score: share of these matches in which both sides scored.
- 33.3%
Lineups · Expected
- Italy
- OutMoise KeanFitness, left the camp
- Türkiye
- OutArda GülerUnavailable
- OutHakan ÇalhanoğluUnavailable
- OutKenan YıldızUnavailable
- OutBarış Alper YılmazUnavailable
- OutOrkun KökçüUnavailable
- OutMertUnavailable
What others predict · Consensus 3 of 3
Our positionWe agree on the direction, not on a rout: we take the straight win, not a handicap.
Scenario & score
Italy on the ball, Türkiye waiting to break. Italy should have more possession and the better first-half chances; a lead lets them manage the game. 2:0 is our main score, 2:1 a realistic alternative.
Arguing against ourselves
- 01Italy have conceded four goals in three group games, and Türkiye created chances in the second half in Bursa.
- 02Kean’s withdrawal and rotation weaken the case for repeating the same attacking display.
- 03The main risk is a draw: Italy dominate without clear chances and it stays 0–0 or 1–1. This pick has no draw cover.
Key factIn Bursa Italy led first-half xG 1.36 to 0.21 and had eight shots on target to three. Over the whole match it was 2.25 to 2.51, so the 4–1 overstates the gap.
Full match analysisLeg 2 · Football · Europe · UEFA Nations League · 5 OCT · 19:45 UK
France vs Belgium
France or draw1.16Won
Why this pickFrance won the first meeting 1–0 in Brussels; Belgium are without two key midfielders but beat Italy in Rome. Including the draw means only a Belgium win beats this leg.
- Predicted score · alt 1:1
- 1:0
- Our estimate · France or draw
- 84–87%
Form · France 7 from 9. Belgium 6 from 9.
France7 pts
- Drawvs Italy1:1
- Winvs Belgium1:0
- Winvs Türkiye1:0
- Goals scored per game in these matches.
- 1.00
- Goals conceded per game in these matches.
- 0.33
- Share of these matches with three or more goals.
- 0%
- Both teams to score: share of these matches in which both sides scored.
- 33.3%
Belgium6 pts
- Winvs Türkiye3:0
- Lossvs France0:1
- Winvs Italy2:0
- Goals scored per game in these matches.
- 1.67
- Goals conceded per game in these matches.
- 0.33
- Share of these matches with three or more goals.
- 33.3%
- Both teams to score: share of these matches in which both sides scored.
- 0%
Lineups · Expected
- France
- OutKylian Mbappé
- OutDayot UpamecanoSuspended
- OutMattéo GuendouziSuspended
- OutWarren Zaïre-EmeryInjured
- FormMichael Olisescored in 2 in a row
- Belgium
- OutKevin De BruyneSuspended
- OutYouri TielemansSuspended
What others predict · Consensus 3 of 3
Our positionSame direction, more caution: a 1–1 loses the straight win but wins France or draw.
Scenario & score
Another close game, France slightly ahead. France should create the better chances, Belgium can still score. 1:0 is our main score, 1:1 the principal alternative: both win this pick.
Arguing against ourselves
- 01Belgium won 2–0 in Rome and have attacking depth beyond De Bruyne.
- 02France have scored only three goals in three group games and must reshuffle defence and midfield.
Key factFrance’s win in Brussels was deserved: 1.43 xG to 0.72, 18 shots to 12 and 7 on target to 2. The winner came late, but the edge was broader than one moment.
Full match analysis