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Football · Europe · UEFA Nations League · League A · Group A1 · Saint-Denis

FrancevsBelgium prediction

Score
4:1
Date
5 OCT
City
Saint-Denis
Status
Full time
No. 01 · The short versionIn our Double

Who will win France vs Belgium?

France won 1–0 in Brussels and lead the group; Belgium lose De Bruyne and Tielemans to suspension. Belgium are still good enough to draw, so we include it: only a Belgium win beats this pick.

Predicted score · alt 1:1
1:0
Our estimate
84–87%
France or draw · odds 1.16Our estimate, not a guarantee
Why this call18+Play responsibly
Market
France or draw
Our bet
Double No. 52 · total odds 1.61
Leg odds
1.16

France vs Belgium at a glance

MatchFrance vs Belgium
CompetitionUEFA Nations League · League A · Group A1
Kick-off5 OCT · 19:45 UK · 20:45 Saint-Denis
VenueStade de France, Saint-Denis
Our pickFrance or draw · 1.16 · Double No. 52 · total odds 1.61
Our estimate84–87%
Predicted score1:0
Main reasonFrance beat Belgium in Brussels and deserved it on the numbers: 1.43 xG to 0.72.
No. 04 · Form

France vs Belgium: recent form

France 7 from 9. Belgium 6 from 9.

France7 pts
  • Drawvs Italy1:1
  • Winvs Belgium1:0
  • Winvs Türkiye1:0
Goals scored per game in these matches.
1.00
Goals conceded per game in these matches.
0.33
Share of these matches with three or more goals.
0%
Both teams to score: share of these matches in which both sides scored.
33.3%
Belgium6 pts
  • Winvs Türkiye3:0
  • Lossvs France0:1
  • Winvs Italy2:0
Goals scored per game in these matches.
1.67
Goals conceded per game in these matches.
0.33
Share of these matches with three or more goals.
33.3%
Both teams to score: share of these matches in which both sides scored.
0%
Key factFrance’s win in Brussels was deserved: 1.43 xG to 0.72, 18 shots to 12 and 7 on target to 2. The winner came late, but the edge was broader than one moment.
No. 05 · LineupsExpected

France vs Belgium team news

France without Mbappé and two suspended starters. Belgium lose De Bruyne and Tielemans.

France
  • OutKylian Mbappé
  • OutDayot UpamecanoSuspended
  • OutMattéo GuendouziSuspended
  • OutWarren Zaïre-EmeryInjured
  • FormMichael Olisescored in 2 in a row
Belgium
  • OutKevin De BruyneSuspended
  • OutYouri TielemansSuspended
TacticsFrance should control central areas through Olise, Dembélé and Doué. Belgium will look for transitions, wide players and Lukaku if he starts; Raskin, Lavia and Vanaken are the midfield options.
No. 06 · What others predictConsensus 3 of 3

Who do others back in France vs Belgium?

Everyone backs France, by a narrow margin.

SourcePickVersus us
RotoWireNarrow France winSame side
SportyTraderFrance winSame side
talkSPORTFrance to edge BelgiumSame side
Our positionSame direction, more caution: a 1–1 loses the straight win but wins France or draw.
No. 07 · Scenario & score

France vs Belgium predicted score

Another close game, France slightly ahead.

France should create the better chances, Belgium can still score. 1:0 is our main score, 1:1 the principal alternative: both win this pick.

Predicted score
1:0
Alternative
1:1
Your score
FRA1
BEL0
No. 08 · Why this pick wins

Our France vs Belgium pick: France or draw

France or draw: why this pick wins

Why we back it

France beat Belgium in Brussels and deserved it on the numbers: 1.43 xG to 0.72. Belgium come to Saint-Denis without De Bruyne and Tielemans, their two main passers. They can still score, so we include the draw. Only a Belgium win beats this pick.

Our probability84–87%
Our pickFrance or draw
Leg odds1.16
Main scenario1:0
Our scenario
1:0alternative 1:1

What would change our mind Late changes that leave France without most of their first-choice defence.

Odds and break-even, for reference
MarketOddsBreak-even
France or draw1.1686.2%
France win1.4668.5%
France draw no bet1.1884.7%
France −1 handicap1.6959.2%

Odds snapshot before publication · no bookmaker names

No. 09 · Arguing against ourselves

What could beat our pick?

Why this could go wrong.

  1. Belgium won 2–0 in Rome and have attacking depth beyond De Bruyne.
  2. France have scored only three goals in three group games and must reshuffle defence and midfield.
No. 10 · Editor’s call

Double

France or draw is one leg of our double No. 52. We bet the double, not this match alone: total odds 1.61, 3.00 units.

Leg 1
Italy win @ 1.39
Leg 2 · this match
France or draw @ 1.16
Total odds
1.61 · 3.00 units
Published
5 OCT 13:37
Open double No. 52 →
Information only. No guarantees.18+Play responsibly
No. 11 · Update log
  1. Prediction published · France or draw · confidence 7.4
  2. Full time: France 4:1 Belgium · France or draw won
No. 12 · After the match
We said
1:0Bet at 1.16
Happened
4:1France win
Won

Read next

FAQ

What does Bet mean?

We expect this result and play it, as a single or as one leg of a double. It is logged in the tracker at the published odds.

How do you choose a pick?

We start from the market, then check a statistical model, named previews and our own scenario test against everything that moves the result: lineups, rest, motivation, style and team news. We publish when at least three of the four agree and the pick wins in the main scorelines. A warning sign, such as a back-up goalie or tired legs, moves us to a safer market or leaves the match as analysis only.

Can a prediction change after publishing?

No. The pick, odds and time are locked when published. Updates go into the log above.