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Football · Europe · UEFA Nations League · League A · Group A1 · Bologna

ItalyvsTürkiye prediction

Score
3:1
Date
5 OCT
City
Bologna
Status
Full time
No. 01 · The short versionIn our Double

Who will win Italy vs Türkiye?

Italy only need to win, by any margin. They beat Türkiye 4–1 in Bursa and drew in France; Türkiye have no points, eight goals conceded and six key absences.

Predicted score · alt 2:1
2:0
Our estimate
70–73%
Italy win · odds 1.39Our estimate, not a guarantee
Why this call18+Play responsibly
Market
Italy win
Our bet
Double No. 52 · total odds 1.61
Leg odds
1.39

Italy vs Türkiye at a glance

MatchItaly vs Türkiye
CompetitionUEFA Nations League · League A · Group A1
Kick-off5 OCT · 19:45 UK · 20:45 Bologna
VenueStadio Renato Dall’Ara, Bologna
Our pickItaly win · 1.39 · Double No. 52 · total odds 1.61
Our estimate70–73%
Predicted score2:0
Main reasonTürkiye arrive with no points, eight goals conceded and six key players missing, Arda Güler and Hakan Çalhanoğlu among them.
No. 04 · Form

Italy vs Türkiye: recent form

Italy 4 from 9. Türkiye 0 from 9.

Italy4 pts
  • Drawvs France1:1
  • Winvs Türkiye4:1
  • Lossvs Belgium0:2
Goals scored per game in these matches.
1.67
Goals conceded per game in these matches.
1.33
Share of these matches with three or more goals.
33.3%
Both teams to score: share of these matches in which both sides scored.
66.7%
Türkiye0 pts
  • Lossvs Belgium0:3
  • Lossvs Italy1:4
  • Lossvs France0:1
Goals scored per game in these matches.
0.33
Goals conceded per game in these matches.
2.67
Share of these matches with three or more goals.
66.7%
Both teams to score: share of these matches in which both sides scored.
33.3%
Key factIn Bursa Italy led first-half xG 1.36 to 0.21 and had eight shots on target to three. Over the whole match it was 2.25 to 2.51, so the 4–1 overstates the gap.
No. 05 · LineupsExpected

Italy vs Türkiye team news

Italy without Kean. Türkiye without six key players.

Italy
  • OutMoise KeanFitness, left the camp
Türkiye
  • OutArda GülerUnavailable
  • OutHakan ÇalhanoğluUnavailable
  • OutKenan YıldızUnavailable
  • OutBarış Alper YılmazUnavailable
  • OutOrkun KökçüUnavailable
  • OutMertUnavailable
TacticsItaly should push their full-backs high and attack the space around Türkiye’s line; Mancini has signalled some rotation. Türkiye will try to survive the opening spell and break through Kerem Aktürkoğlu.
No. 06 · What others predictConsensus 3 of 3

Who do others back in Italy vs Türkiye?

Three of three back Italy, at different strengths.

SourcePickVersus us
Sports MoleItaly 2–0Same side
SportyTraderItaly win (editorial pick; its algorithm is more cautious)Same side
talkSPORTItaly −1Same side
Our positionWe agree on the direction, not on a rout: we take the straight win, not a handicap.
No. 07 · Scenario & score

Italy vs Türkiye predicted score

Italy on the ball, Türkiye waiting to break.

Italy should have more possession and the better first-half chances; a lead lets them manage the game. 2:0 is our main score, 2:1 a realistic alternative.

Predicted score
2:0
Alternative
2:1
Your score
ITA2
TUR0
No. 08 · Why this pick wins

Our Italy vs Türkiye pick: Italy win

Italy win: why this pick wins

Why we back it

Türkiye arrive with no points, eight goals conceded and six key players missing, Arda Güler and Hakan Çalhanoğlu among them. Italy beat them 4:1 in Bursa and then held France away. We expect Italy to control the game at home, and for this pick any Italy win is enough, even a narrow one.

Our probability70–73%
Our pickItaly win
Leg odds1.39
Main scenario2:0
Our scenario
2:0alternative 2:1

What would change our mind A confirmed Italy XI that rests most of the usual starters.

Odds and break-even, for reference
MarketOddsBreak-even
Italy win1.3971.9%
Italy or draw1.1289.3%
Italy draw no bet1.1388.5%
Italy −1 handicap1.5763.7%
Italy −1.5 handicap2.0349.3%

Odds snapshot before publication · no bookmaker names

No. 09 · Arguing against ourselves

What could beat our pick?

Why this could go wrong.

  1. Italy have conceded four goals in three group games, and Türkiye created chances in the second half in Bursa.
  2. Kean’s withdrawal and rotation weaken the case for repeating the same attacking display.
  3. The main risk is a draw: Italy dominate without clear chances and it stays 0–0 or 1–1. This pick has no draw cover.
No. 10 · Editor’s call

Double

Italy win is one leg of our double No. 52. We bet the double, not this match alone: total odds 1.61, 3.00 units.

Leg 1 · this match
Italy win @ 1.39
Leg 2
France or draw @ 1.16
Total odds
1.61 · 3.00 units
Published
5 OCT 13:37
Open double No. 52 →
Information only. No guarantees.18+Play responsibly
No. 11 · Update log
  1. Prediction published · Italy win · confidence 7.1
  2. Full time: Italy 3:1 Türkiye · Italy win won
No. 12 · After the match
We said
2:0Bet at 1.39
Happened
3:1Italy win
Won

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FAQ

What does Bet mean?

We expect this result and play it, as a single or as one leg of a double. It is logged in the tracker at the published odds.

How do you choose a pick?

We start from the market, then check a statistical model, named previews and our own scenario test against everything that moves the result: lineups, rest, motivation, style and team news. We publish when at least three of the four agree and the pick wins in the main scorelines. A warning sign, such as a back-up goalie or tired legs, moves us to a safer market or leaves the match as analysis only.

Can a prediction change after publishing?

No. The pick, odds and time are locked when published. Updates go into the log above.