ENES
Join the club
Double · No. 53 · 6 OCTLost

England vs Czechia + Scotland vs Slovenia

  1. 01England vs CzechiaEngland −1.5 handicap1.35 · Won
  2. 02Scotland vs SloveniaScotland or draw1.21 · Lost
Total odds
1.63
Stake
3.00 units
P&L
-3.00 units
Our estimate
58%
Published 6 OCT 09:0918+Play responsibly
Why this betEngland by two against a Czechia side with no points, and Scotland or draw in a tight game at Hampden. Both legs pass our scenario test: England win the main scenario by two or more, and Scotland are covered whether they edge it or draw.
Leg 1 · Football · Europe · UEFA Nations League · 6 OCT · 19:45 UK

England vs Czechia

England −1.5 handicap1.35Won
Why this pickEngland scored seven in Croatia and won in Prague; Czechia have conceded at least twice in every group game. We need a two-goal win, which is the main scenario rather than the best case.
Predicted score · alt 2:0
3:0
Our estimate · England −1.5 handicap
72%

Form · England 6 from 9. Czechia 0 from 9.

England6 pts
  • Winvs Croatia7:0
  • Winvs Czechia2:0
  • Lossvs Spain2:3
Goals scored per game in these matches.
3.67
Goals conceded per game in these matches.
1.00
Share of these matches with three or more goals.
66.7%
Both teams to score: share of these matches in which both sides scored.
33.3%
Czechia0 pts
  • Lossvs Spain1:3
  • Lossvs England0:2
  • Lossvs Croatia1:2
Goals scored per game in these matches.
0.67
Goals conceded per game in these matches.
2.33
Share of these matches with three or more goals.
66.7%
Both teams to score: share of these matches in which both sides scored.
66.7%

Lineups · Expected

  • England
  • FormHarry Kanescored in 3 in a row
  • Czechia
  • DoubtLadislav KrejčíReported suspended, not confirmed
  • OutLukáš ProvodAnkle injury
  • DoubtTomáš ChorýReported injured, not confirmed
  • DoubtAdam Karabec

What others predict · Consensus 3 of 3

Our positionWe agree, and we want the margin: a two-goal win is the main scenario, not the best case.

Scenario & score

England on the ball, Czechia behind the ball. We expect England to control the game and Czechia to defend deep. The first goal opens it up. 3:0 is our main score, 2:0 the alternative; both win this pick.

Arguing against ourselves

  1. 01A 1:0 or 2:1 loses the pick: this line has no refund for a one-goal win.
  2. 02Rotation. If Kane starts on the bench and Tuchel changes half the side, the margin shrinks.
  3. 03Czechia’s low block can hold for an hour, as it did for long spells in Prague.
Key factHarry Kane has scored in all three of England’s group games. Czechia played more than an hour of the first meeting with ten men, so the 2:0 in Prague flatters the gap a little.
Full match analysis
Leg 2 · Football · Europe · UEFA Nations League · 6 OCT · 19:45 UK

Scotland vs Slovenia

Scotland or draw1.21Lost
Why this pickScotland had the better of the 0:0 in Ljubljana and Slovenia are without Šeško. A tight, low-scoring game is likely, so the draw comes with us.
Predicted score · alt 1:1
1:0
Our estimate · Scotland or draw
80%

Form · Scotland 4 from 9. Slovenia 4 from 9.

Scotland4 pts
  • Winvs North Macedonia2:0
  • Lossvs Switzerland0:3
  • Drawvs Slovenia0:0
Goals scored per game in these matches.
0.67
Goals conceded per game in these matches.
1.00
Share of these matches with three or more goals.
33.3%
Both teams to score: share of these matches in which both sides scored.
0%
Slovenia4 pts
  • Lossvs Switzerland1:2
  • Winvs North Macedonia2:0
  • Drawvs Scotland0:0
Goals scored per game in these matches.
1.00
Goals conceded per game in these matches.
0.67
Share of these matches with three or more goals.
33.3%
Both teams to score: share of these matches in which both sides scored.
33.3%

Lineups · Expected

  • Scotland
  • DoubtScott McKennaReported suspended, not confirmed
  • FormJack HendryBack after suspension
  • Slovenia
  • OutBenjamin ŠeškoInjury, withdrew from the squad
  • DoubtŽan ZaletelReported out, not confirmed

What others predict · Consensus 3 of 3

Our positionA one-goal game either way is likely, so we take the draw with us.

Scenario & score

Scotland press, Slovenia wait. Few goals, plenty of Scotland pressure. 1:0 is our main score, 1:1 the alternative; both win this pick.

Arguing against ourselves

  1. 01Oblak. One goalkeeper already turned a better Scotland performance into a 0:0.
  2. 02Slovenia can win it on the break, and a single counter-attack goal beats this pick.
Key factIn the first meeting Scotland had more shots and the better chances, and Oblak was the reason it ended 0:0.
Full match analysis