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Football · Europe · UEFA Nations League · League A · Group A3 · London

EnglandvsCzechia prediction

Score
3:0
Date
6 OCT
City
London
Status
Full time
No. 01 · The short versionIn our Double

Who will win England vs Czechia?

England need to win by two. They put seven past Croatia on Saturday and beat Czechia 2:0 in Prague, while Czechia have no points and conceded at least twice in every group game.

Predicted score · alt 2:0
3:0
Our estimate
72%
England −1.5 handicap · odds 1.35Our estimate, not a guarantee
Why this call18+Play responsibly
Market
England −1.5 handicap
Our bet
Double No. 53 · total odds 1.63
Leg odds
1.35

England vs Czechia at a glance

MatchEngland vs Czechia
CompetitionUEFA Nations League · League A · Group A3
Kick-off6 OCT · 19:45 UK · 19:45 London
VenueWembley Stadium, London
Our pickEngland −1.5 handicap · 1.35 · Double No. 53 · total odds 1.63
Our estimate72%
Predicted score3:0
Main reasonOur editorial team sees a clear gap between these two sides right now.
No. 04 · Form

England vs Czechia: recent form

England 6 from 9. Czechia 0 from 9.

England6 pts
  • Winvs Croatia7:0
  • Winvs Czechia2:0
  • Lossvs Spain2:3
Goals scored per game in these matches.
3.67
Goals conceded per game in these matches.
1.00
Share of these matches with three or more goals.
66.7%
Both teams to score: share of these matches in which both sides scored.
33.3%
Czechia0 pts
  • Lossvs Spain1:3
  • Lossvs England0:2
  • Lossvs Croatia1:2
Goals scored per game in these matches.
0.67
Goals conceded per game in these matches.
2.33
Share of these matches with three or more goals.
66.7%
Both teams to score: share of these matches in which both sides scored.
66.7%
Key factHarry Kane has scored in all three of England’s group games. Czechia played more than an hour of the first meeting with ten men, so the 2:0 in Prague flatters the gap a little.
No. 05 · LineupsExpected

England vs Czechia team news

Czechia without Provod, with Krejčí and Chorý reported missing.

England
  • FormHarry Kanescored in 3 in a row
Czechia
  • DoubtLadislav KrejčíReported suspended, not confirmed
  • OutLukáš ProvodAnkle injury
  • DoubtTomáš ChorýReported injured, not confirmed
  • DoubtAdam Karabec
TacticsEngland should have the ball from the start. Czechia are expected to sit in a low block with five at the back, and once they go behind they will have to open up. Tuchel may rest Bellingham and Gordon.
No. 06 · What others predictConsensus 3 of 3

Who do others back in England vs Czechia?

Everyone sees a comfortable England win.

SourcePickVersus us
LiveScoreEngland 3:0Same side
Sports MoleEngland 4:0Same side
CoversCzechia tired, England’s bench far deeperSame side
Our positionWe agree, and we want the margin: a two-goal win is the main scenario, not the best case.
No. 07 · Scenario & score

England vs Czechia predicted score

England on the ball, Czechia behind the ball.

We expect England to control the game and Czechia to defend deep. The first goal opens it up. 3:0 is our main score, 2:0 the alternative; both win this pick.

Predicted score
3:0
Alternative
2:0
Your score
ENG3
CZE0
No. 08 · Why this pick wins

Our England vs Czechia pick: England −1.5 handicap

England −1.5 handicap: why this pick wins

Why we back it

Our editorial team sees a clear gap between these two sides right now. England have scored nine in their last two games, seven of them in Croatia, and Harry Kane has scored in every group match. Czechia have no points, have conceded at least twice in every game and play without the injured Provod, with their captain Krejčí reported to be out too. They will sit deep, so we think the question is when England score, not if, and once the first one goes in Czechia have to come out and leave space.

Our probability72%
Our pickEngland −1.5 handicap
Leg odds1.35
Main scenario3:0
Wins with
2:03:03:14:04:1…
Loses with
1:01:12:10:00:11:2…
Our scenario
3:0alternative 2:0

What would change our mind Kane on the bench and heavy rotation in the confirmed XI.

Odds and break-even, for reference
MarketOddsBreak-even
England −1.5 handicap1.3574.1%
England −1 handicap1.1388.5%

Odds snapshot before publication · no bookmaker names

No. 09 · Arguing against ourselves

What could beat our pick?

Why this could go wrong.

  1. A 1:0 or 2:1 loses the pick: this line has no refund for a one-goal win.
  2. Rotation. If Kane starts on the bench and Tuchel changes half the side, the margin shrinks.
  3. Czechia’s low block can hold for an hour, as it did for long spells in Prague.
No. 10 · Editor’s call

Double

England −1.5 handicap is one leg of our double No. 53. We bet the double, not this match alone: total odds 1.63, 3.00 units.

Leg 1 · this match
England −1.5 handicap @ 1.35
Leg 2
Scotland or draw @ 1.21
Total odds
1.63 · 3.00 units
Published
6 OCT 09:09
Open double No. 53 →
Information only. No guarantees.18+Play responsibly
No. 11 · Update log
  1. Prediction published · England −1.5 handicap at 1.35
No. 12 · After the match
We said
3:0Bet at 1.35
Happened
3:0England win
Won

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FAQ

What does Bet mean?

We expect this result and play it, as a single or as one leg of a double. It is logged in the tracker at the published odds.

How do you choose a pick?

We start from the market, then check a statistical model, named previews and our own scenario test against everything that moves the result: lineups, rest, motivation, style and team news. We publish when at least three of the four agree and the pick wins in the main scorelines. A warning sign, such as a back-up goalie or tired legs, moves us to a safer market or leaves the match as analysis only.

Can a prediction change after publishing?

No. The pick, odds and time are locked when published. Updates go into the log above.