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Football · Europe · UEFA Nations League · League B · Group B1 · Glasgow

ScotlandvsSlovenia prediction

Score
1:2
Date
6 OCT
City
Glasgow
Status
Full time
No. 01 · The short versionIn our Double

Who will win Scotland vs Slovenia?

A tight game with a play-off place at stake. Scotland were the better side in the 0:0 in Ljubljana, where Oblak kept them out, and Slovenia come without Šeško. A Scotland win or a draw both work for us.

Predicted score · alt 1:1
1:0
Our estimate
80%
Scotland or draw · odds 1.21Our estimate, not a guarantee
Why this call18+Play responsibly
Market
Scotland or draw
Our bet
Double No. 53 · total odds 1.63
Leg odds
1.21

Scotland vs Slovenia at a glance

MatchScotland vs Slovenia
CompetitionUEFA Nations League · League B · Group B1
Kick-off6 OCT · 19:45 UK · 19:45 Glasgow
VenueHampden Park, Glasgow
Our pickScotland or draw · 1.21 · Double No. 53 · total odds 1.63
Our estimate80%
Predicted score1:0
Main reasonWe think Scotland are the better side here, and at home they should not lose.
No. 04 · Form

Scotland vs Slovenia: recent form

Scotland 4 from 9. Slovenia 4 from 9.

Scotland4 pts
  • Winvs North Macedonia2:0
  • Lossvs Switzerland0:3
  • Drawvs Slovenia0:0
Goals scored per game in these matches.
0.67
Goals conceded per game in these matches.
1.00
Share of these matches with three or more goals.
33.3%
Both teams to score: share of these matches in which both sides scored.
0%
Slovenia4 pts
  • Lossvs Switzerland1:2
  • Winvs North Macedonia2:0
  • Drawvs Scotland0:0
Goals scored per game in these matches.
1.00
Goals conceded per game in these matches.
0.67
Share of these matches with three or more goals.
33.3%
Both teams to score: share of these matches in which both sides scored.
33.3%
Key factIn the first meeting Scotland had more shots and the better chances, and Oblak was the reason it ended 0:0.
No. 05 · LineupsExpected

Scotland vs Slovenia team news

Slovenia without Šeško. Hendry is back for Scotland.

Scotland
  • DoubtScott McKennaReported suspended, not confirmed
  • FormJack HendryBack after suspension
Slovenia
  • OutBenjamin ŠeškoInjury, withdrew from the squad
  • DoubtŽan ZaletelReported out, not confirmed
TacticsScotland will press and push the full-backs on, Slovenia will sit deep with five at the back and wait to counter. Andy Robertson leads the side.
No. 06 · What others predictConsensus 3 of 3

Who do others back in Scotland vs Slovenia?

Low scoring, home side ahead.

SourcePickVersus us
Football WhispersScotland 1:0 or 1:1Same side
Racing PostTight game, home edgeSame side
Sports MoleScotland 1:0 or 1:1Same side
Our positionA one-goal game either way is likely, so we take the draw with us.
No. 07 · Scenario & score

Scotland vs Slovenia predicted score

Scotland press, Slovenia wait.

Few goals, plenty of Scotland pressure. 1:0 is our main score, 1:1 the alternative; both win this pick.

Predicted score
1:0
Alternative
1:1
Your score
SCO1
SVN0
No. 08 · Why this pick wins

Our Scotland vs Slovenia pick: Scotland or draw

Scotland or draw: why this pick wins

Why we back it

We think Scotland are the better side here, and at home they should not lose. In the first meeting they had more shots and the better chances, and only Jan Oblak kept it at 0:0. Slovenia arrive without their main striker Benjamin Šeško, so their best hope is a counter-attack. Scotland or draw covers the two most likely results in a tight, low-scoring game.

Our probability80%
Our pickScotland or draw
Leg odds1.21
Main scenario1:0
Our scenario
1:0alternative 1:1

What would change our mind Heavy late changes to Scotland’s XI.

Odds and break-even, for reference
MarketOddsBreak-even
Scotland or draw1.2182.6%

Odds snapshot before publication · no bookmaker names

No. 09 · Arguing against ourselves

What could beat our pick?

Why this could go wrong.

  1. Oblak. One goalkeeper already turned a better Scotland performance into a 0:0.
  2. Slovenia can win it on the break, and a single counter-attack goal beats this pick.
No. 10 · Editor’s call

Double

Scotland or draw is one leg of our double No. 53. We bet the double, not this match alone: total odds 1.63, 3.00 units.

Leg 1
England −1.5 handicap @ 1.35
Leg 2 · this match
Scotland or draw @ 1.21
Total odds
1.63 · 3.00 units
Published
6 OCT 09:09
Open double No. 53 →
Information only. No guarantees.18+Play responsibly
No. 11 · Update log
  1. Prediction published · Scotland or draw at 1.21
  2. Price confirmed on the ticket before kick-off: Scotland or draw at 1.21
No. 12 · After the match
We said
1:0Bet at 1.21
Happened
1:2Slovenia win
Lost

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FAQ

What does Bet mean?

We expect this result and play it, as a single or as one leg of a double. It is logged in the tracker at the published odds.

How do you choose a pick?

We start from the market, then check a statistical model, named previews and our own scenario test against everything that moves the result: lineups, rest, motivation, style and team news. We publish when at least three of the four agree and the pick wins in the main scorelines. A warning sign, such as a back-up goalie or tired legs, moves us to a safer market or leaves the match as analysis only.

Can a prediction change after publishing?

No. The pick, odds and time are locked when published. Updates go into the log above.