Double · No. 57 · 9 OCTLost
Dortmund vs Werder + PSV vs Heerenveen
- 01Dortmund vs WerderDortmund win1.33 · Lost
- 02PSV vs HeerenveenPSV win1.26 · Won
- Total odds
- 1.68
- Stake
- 2.00 units
- P&L
- -2.00 units
- Our estimate
- 58–64%
Published 9 OCT 06:26
Odds: average of 33 popular bookmakers, 9 OCT 10:2918+Play responsibly
Odds: average of 33 popular bookmakers, 9 OCT 10:2918+Play responsibly
Why this betDortmund at home to a Werder side missing eight players, and PSV at home to mid-table Heerenveen. Both legs need only a win: Dortmund have won all four league games, PSV have won eight of their last ten at home.
Leg 1 · Football · Germany · Bundesliga · 9 OCT · 19:30 UK
Dortmund vs Werder
Dortmund win1.33Lost
Why this pickDortmund have won four from four and conceded two goals; Werder are without eight players, including both central midfielders. We expect a home win, most likely 2:0.
- Predicted score · alt 1:1
- 2:0
- Our estimate · Dortmund win
- 76–80%
Form · Dortmund 15 from 15. Werder 7 from 12.
Dortmund15 pts
- Winvs Stuttgart1:0
- Winvs Paderborn3:0
- Winvs Villarreal3:2
- Winvs Hoffenheim3:2
- Winvs HEBC5:0
- Goals scored per game in these matches.
- 3.00
- Goals conceded per game in these matches.
- 0.80
- Share of these matches with three or more goals.
- 80%
- Both teams to score: share of these matches in which both sides scored.
- 40%
Werder7 pts
- Winvs Augsburg3:2
- Drawvs Köln1:1
- Winvs RB Leipzig3:1
- Lossvs Freiburg1:4
- Goals scored per game in these matches.
- 2.00
- Goals conceded per game in these matches.
- 2.00
- Share of these matches with three or more goals.
- 75%
- Both teams to score: share of these matches in which both sides scored.
- 100%
Lineups · Expected
- Dortmund
- OutEmre CanCruciate ligament injury
- OutFilippo ManéThigh injury
- OutJustin LermaMuscle injury
- OutGiannis KonstanteliasLong-term injury
- DoubtNico SchlotterbeckAnkle, positive signs in training
- DoubtJulian RyersonMuscle problem from international duty
- DoubtDaniel SvenssonCold
- DoubtKonstantinos KaretsasIllness
- Werder
- DoubtKarl HeinGoalkeeper, muscle problem, left the Estonia squad
- OutJens StageThigh injury
- OutSenne LynenGroin injury
- OutFelix AguCalf injury
- OutSkelly AlveroCalf injury
- OutMoussa N’DiayeGroin injury
- OutJustin NjinmahThigh injury
- OutKeke ToppCruciate ligament injury
- OutSalim MusahThigh injury
What others predict · Consensus 2 of 2
Our positionWe agree on the winner and expect fewer goals: Dortmund have kept clean sheets in their home league games so far.
Scenario & score
Dortmund on the ball, Werder short of midfielders. Without Stage and Lynen, Werder will struggle to keep the ball and Dortmund should create the better chances through Guirassy and Nwaneri. 2:0 is our main score. 1:1 is the risk: a slow first game after the break and a Werder set piece.
Arguing against ourselves
- 01Dortmund’s away wins were tight: 1:0 at Stuttgart and 3:2 at Hoffenheim.
- 02It is the first game after the international break; Svensson and Karetsas have been ill and Ryerson came back injured.
- 03Werder can come back: they turned 0:2 into 3:2 against Augsburg.
Key factDortmund have won six in a row in all competitions and lead the table on 12 points, two ahead of Bayern. Werder are eighth on seven after coming back from 0:2 to beat Augsburg 3:2, but they lost a friendly 0:7 at Twente during the break.
Full match analysisLeg 2 · Football · Netherlands · Eredivisie · 9 OCT · 19:00 UK
PSV vs Heerenveen
PSV win1.26Won
Why this pickPSV scored four or more against Groningen, Utrecht and Sparta and have beaten Heerenveen four times in a row. The absences are real, but the midfield that scores their goals is fit.
- Predicted score · alt 1:1
- 3:1
- Our estimate · PSV win
- 76–80%
Form · PSV 12 from 15. Heerenveen 5 from 15.
PSV12 pts
- Lossvs Twente2:3
- Winvs Sparta Rotterdam4:1
- Winvs Ajax3:1
- Winvs Utrecht6:1
- Winvs Groningen5:1
- Goals scored per game in these matches.
- 4.00
- Goals conceded per game in these matches.
- 1.40
- Share of these matches with three or more goals.
- 100%
- Both teams to score: share of these matches in which both sides scored.
- 100%
Heerenveen5 pts
- Winvs Sparta Rotterdam4:0
- Drawvs Telstar0:0
- Lossvs AZ2:3
- Drawvs Willem II2:2
- Lossvs PEC Zwolle0:2
- Goals scored per game in these matches.
- 1.60
- Goals conceded per game in these matches.
- 1.40
- Share of these matches with three or more goals.
- 60%
- Both teams to score: share of these matches in which both sides scored.
- 40%
Lineups · Expected
- PSV
- DoubtRicardo PepiNot expected after his injury at Twente
- DoubtLutsharel GeertruidaMinor knock on international duty
- DoubtPaul WannerMinor knock on international duty
- OutKiliann Sildillia
- OutAlassane Pléa
- OutAdamo Nagalo
- OutSam Lammers
- OutJerdy Schouten
- Heerenveen
- No absences reported.
What others predict · Consensus 2 of 2
Our positionWe agree PSV win. We take the plain win rather than a handicap: PSV often concede first, so 2:1 is a real outcome.
Scenario & score
PSV press, Heerenveen hold on for a while. We expect Heerenveen to defend deep and hope for a counter; PSV have conceded first in five of their last six games but often settle games late. 3:1 is our main score. 1:1 is the risk if PSV, without a fit striker, miss their chances.
Arguing against ourselves
- 01PSV conceded first in five of their last six games.
- 02Five players out, Pepi unlikely, and a Champions League game against RB Leipzig four days later, according to Sports Mole.
- 03Their last league game was a 3:2 defeat at Twente.
Key factBefore Twente, PSV won five league games in a row, scoring 20: 5:1 against Groningen, 6:1 at Utrecht and 3:1 at Ajax among them. Heerenveen won 4:0 at Sparta last time out but had gone five league games without a win before that.
Full match analysis