Feyenoord's unbeaten leaders took their row to the dressing room. PSV are next
Our take The row is noise. Eight goals in three games is not
Football · Netherlands · Eredivisie · Matchday 8 · Eindhoven
PSVvsHeerenveen PSV Eindhoven vs SC Heerenveen · prediction
Score
2:0
Date
9 OCT
City
Eindhoven
Status
Full time
PSV2:0HEEFull time
No. 01 · The short versionIn our Double
Who will win PSV vs Heerenveen?
PSV host Heerenveen after their first league defeat, 3:2 at Twente before the break. They are third on 16 points and have won eight of their last ten league games at home; Heerenveen are tenth on nine. We back a PSV win, most likely 3:1.
- Predicted score · alt 1:1
- 3:1
- Our estimate
- 76–80%
- Market
- PSV win
- Our bet
- Double No. 57 · total odds 1.68
- Leg odds
- 1.26
PSV vs Heerenveen at a glance
| Match | PSV Eindhoven vs SC Heerenveen |
|---|---|
| Competition | Eredivisie · Matchday 8 |
| Kick-off | 9 OCT · 19:00 UK · 20:00 Eindhoven |
| Venue | Philips Stadion, Eindhoven |
| Our pick | PSV win · 1.26 · Double No. 57 · total odds 1.68 |
| Our estimate | 76–80% |
| Predicted score | 3:1 |
| Main reason | Our editorial team expects PSV to win at home tonight. |
No. 04 · Form
PSV vs Heerenveen: recent form
PSV 12 from 15. Heerenveen 5 from 15.
PSV12 pts
- Lossvs Twente2:3
- Winvs Sparta Rotterdam4:1
- Winvs Ajax3:1
- Winvs Utrecht6:1
- Winvs Groningen5:1
- Goals scored per game in these matches.
- 4.00
- Goals conceded per game in these matches.
- 1.40
- Share of these matches with three or more goals.
- 100%
- Both teams to score: share of these matches in which both sides scored.
- 100%
Heerenveen5 pts
- Winvs Sparta Rotterdam4:0
- Drawvs Telstar0:0
- Lossvs AZ2:3
- Drawvs Willem II2:2
- Lossvs PEC Zwolle0:2
- Goals scored per game in these matches.
- 1.60
- Goals conceded per game in these matches.
- 1.40
- Share of these matches with three or more goals.
- 60%
- Both teams to score: share of these matches in which both sides scored.
- 40%
Key factBefore Twente, PSV won five league games in a row, scoring 20: 5:1 against Groningen, 6:1 at Utrecht and 3:1 at Ajax among them. Heerenveen won 4:0 at Sparta last time out but had gone five league games without a win before that.
No. 05 · LineupsExpected
PSV vs Heerenveen team news
PSV without Schouten, Pléa, Lammers and probably Pepi.
PSV
- DoubtRicardo PepiNot expected after his injury at Twente
- DoubtLutsharel GeertruidaMinor knock on international duty
- DoubtPaul WannerMinor knock on international duty
- OutKiliann Sildillia
- OutAlassane Pléa
- OutAdamo Nagalo
- OutSam Lammers
- OutJerdy Schouten
Heerenveen
No absences reported.
TacticsPeter Bosz is missing five players and Pepi is not expected after his early injury at Twente; Geertruida and Wanner picked up knocks with their national teams. Til, Perišić, Mijnans and Van Bommel are fit, and most of PSV’s goals come from that midfield line. Robin Veldman’s Heerenveen are led by Jacob Trenskow, involved in nine goals in his last ten games.
In the news
Bednarek applauds Porto's boos. Eight from eight in Portugal, zero in Europe
Our take Porto lose Europe in both boxes, not the stands
No. 06 · What others predictConsensus 2 of 2
Who do others back in PSV vs Heerenveen?
Both previews we read pick PSV.
| Source | Pick | Versus us |
|---|---|---|
| Sports Mole | PSV 4:1 | Same side |
| Sportsgambler | PSV 2:1 | Same side |
Our positionWe agree PSV win. We take the plain win rather than a handicap: PSV often concede first, so 2:1 is a real outcome.
No. 07 · Scenario & score
PSV vs Heerenveen predicted score
PSV press, Heerenveen hold on for a while.
We expect Heerenveen to defend deep and hope for a counter; PSV have conceded first in five of their last six games but often settle games late. 3:1 is our main score. 1:1 is the risk if PSV, without a fit striker, miss their chances.
- Predicted score
- 3:1
- Alternative
- 1:1
Your score
PSV
HEE
No. 08 · Why this pick wins
Our PSV vs Heerenveen pick: PSV win
PSV win: why this pick wins
Why we back it
Our editorial team expects PSV to win at home tonight. They scored four or more against Groningen, Utrecht and Sparta, and they have won eight of their last ten league games at home. Heerenveen have won one of their last six league games and PSV have beaten them in four meetings in a row. The absences are real, but Til, Perišić and Mijnans are fit, and that is enough against a side from the bottom half.
Our probability76–80%
Our pickPSV win
Leg odds1.26
Main scenario3:1
- Our scenario
- 3:1alternative 1:1
What would change our mind A confirmed PSV XI with heavy rotation, without both Til and Perišić.
Odds and break-even, for reference
| Market | Odds | Break-even |
|---|---|---|
| PSV win | 1.26 | 79.4% |
| Draw | 6.34 | 15.8% |
| Heerenveen win | 7.62 | 13.1% |
Odds snapshot 9 OCT 11:29 · no bookmaker names
No. 09 · Arguing against ourselves
What could beat our pick?
Why this could go wrong.
- PSV conceded first in five of their last six games.
- Five players out, Pepi unlikely, and a Champions League game against RB Leipzig four days later, according to Sports Mole.
- Their last league game was a 3:2 defeat at Twente.
No. 10 · Editor’s call
Double
PSV win is one leg of our double No. 57. We bet the double, not this match alone: total odds 1.68, 2.00 units.
Open double No. 57 →Information only. No guarantees.18+Play responsibly
No. 11 · Update log
- Prediction published · PSV win at 1.26
No. 12 · After the match
- We said
- 3:1Bet at 1.26
- Happened
- 2:0PSV win
Won
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FAQ
What does Bet mean?
We expect this result and play it, as a single or as one leg of a double. It is logged in the tracker at the published odds.
How do you choose a pick?
We start from the market, then check a statistical model, named previews and our own scenario test against everything that moves the result: lineups, rest, motivation, style and team news. We publish when at least three of the four agree and the pick wins in the main scorelines. A warning sign, such as a back-up goalie or tired legs, moves us to a safer market or leaves the match as analysis only.
Can a prediction change after publishing?
No. The pick, odds and time are locked when published. Updates go into the log above.