Borussia Dortmund vs Werder Bremen prediction

No. 01 · The short versionIn our Double

Who will win Dortmund vs Werder?

Borussia Dortmund are the only Bundesliga side with four wins from four and have conceded two league goals all season. Werder Bremen travel without eight players, two of them central midfielders, and with their goalkeeper Karl Hein a doubt. We back a Dortmund win, most likely 2:0.

Predicted score · alt 1:1: 2:0
Our estimate: 76–80%

Dortmund win · odds 1.33Our estimate, not a guarantee

Why this call18+Play responsibly

Market: Dortmund win
Our bet: Double No. 57 · total odds 1.68
Leg odds: 1.33

Dortmund vs Werder at a glance

Match	Borussia Dortmund vs Werder Bremen
Competition	Bundesliga · Matchday 5
Kick-off	9 OCT · 19:30 UK · 20:30 Dortmund
Venue	Signal Iduna Park, Dortmund
Our pick	Dortmund win · 1.33 · Double No. 57 · total odds 1.68
Our estimate	76–80%
Predicted score	2:0
Main reason	Our editorial team sees a clear gap tonight.

No. 04 · Form

Dortmund vs Werder: recent form

Dortmund 15 from 15. Werder 7 from 12.

Dortmund15 pts

Winvs Stuttgart1:0
Winvs Paderborn3:0
Winvs Villarreal3:2
Winvs Hoffenheim3:2
Winvs HEBC5:0

: 3.00
: 0.80
: 80%
: 40%

Werder7 pts

Winvs Augsburg3:2
Drawvs Köln1:1
Winvs RB Leipzig3:1
Lossvs Freiburg1:4

: 2.00
: 2.00
: 75%
: 100%

Key factDortmund have won six in a row in all competitions and lead the table on 12 points, two ahead of Bayern. Werder are eighth on seven after coming back from 0:2 to beat Augsburg 3:2, but they lost a friendly 0:7 at Twente during the break.

No. 05 · LineupsExpected

Dortmund vs Werder team news

Werder without Stage, Lynen and six more; Hein a doubt in goal.

Dortmund

OutEmre CanCruciate ligament injury
OutFilippo ManéThigh injury
OutJustin LermaMuscle injury
OutGiannis KonstanteliasLong-term injury
DoubtNico SchlotterbeckAnkle, positive signs in training
DoubtJulian RyersonMuscle problem from international duty
DoubtDaniel SvenssonCold
DoubtKonstantinos KaretsasIllness

Werder

DoubtKarl HeinGoalkeeper, muscle problem, left the Estonia squad
OutJens StageThigh injury
OutSenne LynenGroin injury
OutFelix AguCalf injury
OutSkelly AlveroCalf injury
OutMoussa N’DiayeGroin injury
OutJustin NjinmahThigh injury
OutKeke ToppCruciate ligament injury
OutSalim MusahThigh injury

TacticsKovač should have Gregor Kobel, Guirassy and Nwaneri, with Schlotterbeck likely after positive signs this week. Svensson and Karetsas have been ill and Ryerson came back from international duty with a muscle problem. Werder’s midfield pair Stage and Lynen are both out, so Thioune has little to hold the ball with; Füllkrug is expected up front.

No. 06 · What others predictConsensus 2 of 2

Who do others back in Dortmund vs Werder?

Both previews we read expect a Dortmund win.

Source	Pick	Versus us
Sports Mole	Dortmund 3:1	Same side
Sportsgambler	Dortmund to win, 3:1	Same side

Our positionWe agree on the winner and expect fewer goals: Dortmund have kept clean sheets in their home league games so far.

No. 07 · Scenario & score

Dortmund vs Werder predicted score

Dortmund on the ball, Werder short of midfielders.

Without Stage and Lynen, Werder will struggle to keep the ball and Dortmund should create the better chances through Guirassy and Nwaneri. 2:0 is our main score. 1:1 is the risk: a slow first game after the break and a Werder set piece.

Predicted score: 2:0
Alternative: 1:1

Your score

BVB2

SVW0

No. 08 · Why this pick wins

Our Dortmund vs Werder pick: Dortmund win

Dortmund win: why this pick wins

Why we back it

Our editorial team sees a clear gap tonight. Dortmund have won all four league games and conceded two goals, the best defensive record in the Bundesliga. Werder arrive without eight players, including both central midfielders Stage and Lynen, and their goalkeeper Hein left the Estonia squad with a muscle problem. We expect Dortmund to control the game at home and win it, most likely 2:0.

Our probability76–80%

Our pickDortmund win

Leg odds1.33

Main scenario2:0

Our scenario: 2:0alternative 1:1

What would change our mind A confirmed Dortmund XI without both Schlotterbeck and Guirassy, or news of more illness in the squad.

Odds and break-even, for reference

Market	Odds	Break-even
Dortmund win	1.33	75.2%
Draw	5.57	18%
Werder win	7.76	12.9%

Odds snapshot 9 OCT 11:29 · no bookmaker names

No. 09 · Arguing against ourselves

What could beat our pick?

Why this could go wrong.

Dortmund’s away wins were tight: 1:0 at Stuttgart and 3:2 at Hoffenheim.
It is the first game after the international break; Svensson and Karetsas have been ill and Ryerson came back injured.
Werder can come back: they turned 0:2 into 3:2 against Augsburg.

No. 10 · Editor’s call

Double

Dortmund win is one leg of our double No. 57. We bet the double, not this match alone: total odds 1.68, 2.00 units.

Leg 1 · this match: Dortmund win @ 1.33
Leg 2: PSV win @ 1.26
Total odds: 1.68 · 2.00 units
Published: 9 OCT 07:26

Open double No. 57 →

Information only. No guarantees.18+Play responsibly

No. 11 · Update log

07:26Prediction published · Dortmund win at 1.33

No. 12 · After the match

We said: 2:0Bet at 1.33
Happened: 2:2Draw

Lost

FAQ

What does Bet mean?

We expect this result and play it, as a single or as one leg of a double. It is logged in the tracker at the published odds.

How do you choose a pick?

We start from the market, then check a statistical model, named previews and our own scenario test against everything that moves the result: lineups, rest, motivation, style and team news. We publish when at least three of the four agree and the pick wins in the main scorelines. A warning sign, such as a back-up goalie or tired legs, moves us to a safer market or leaves the match as analysis only.

Can a prediction change after publishing?

No. The pick, odds and time are locked when published. Updates go into the log above.

DortmundvsWerder Borussia Dortmund vs Werder Bremen · prediction