Double · No. 59 · 10 OCTLost
Augsburg vs Bayern + Ajax vs NEC
- 01Augsburg vs BayernBayern win1.16 · Lost
- 02Ajax vs NECAjax win1.32 · Lost
- Total odds
- 1.53
- Stake
- 2.00 units
- P&L
- -2.00 units
- Our estimate
- 54–60%
Published 10 OCT 09:46
Odds: average of 32 popular bookmakers, 10 OCT 09:4818+Play responsibly
Odds: average of 32 popular bookmakers, 10 OCT 09:4818+Play responsibly
Why this betBayern away at Augsburg and Ajax at home to NEC. Both legs need only a win: Bayern are unbeaten in seven games this season, and Ajax have scored 17 goals in their last five league games against an NEC side without a win in five.
Leg 1 · Football · Germany · Bundesliga · 10 OCT · 14:30 UK
Augsburg vs Bayern
Bayern win1.16Lost
Why this pickBayern have won six and drawn one this season and conceded two goals in four league games; Augsburg are without Banks, Breithaupt and Mounié. We expect an away win, most likely 1:3.
- Predicted score · alt 1:2
- 1:3
- Our estimate · Bayern win
- 80–84%
Form · Augsburg 10 from 15. Bayern 13 from 15.
Augsburg10 pts
- Lossvs Werder Bremen2:3
- Drawvs Bayer Leverkusen2:2
- Winvs Eintracht Frankfurt4:1
- Winvs Schalke 043:0
- Winvs Energie Cottbus2:0
- Goals scored per game in these matches.
- 2.60
- Goals conceded per game in these matches.
- 1.20
- Share of these matches with three or more goals.
- 80%
- Both teams to score: share of these matches in which both sides scored.
- 60%
Bayern13 pts
- Winvs Union Berlin7:0
- Winvs SV Elversberg2:1
- Winvs Bodø/Glimt5:0
- Drawvs Schalke 040:0
- Winvs VfL Osnabrück4:1
- Goals scored per game in these matches.
- 3.60
- Goals conceded per game in these matches.
- 0.40
- Share of these matches with three or more goals.
- 80%
- Both teams to score: share of these matches in which both sides scored.
- 40%
Lineups · Expected
- Augsburg
- OutNoahkai BanksKnee ligament injury on Germany U21 duty
- OutTim BreithauptToe injury
- OutFaik SakarAnkle injury
- OutSteve Mounié
- Bayern
- OutJamal MusialaTorn muscle fibre in the right thigh
What others predict · Consensus 4 of 4
Our positionWe agree on the winner and expect Augsburg to score once: they have scored in every league game this season.
Scenario & score
Bayern on the ball, Augsburg waiting for the counter. Bayern have taken 85% of the shots in their last five games and should pin Augsburg back from the start, with Olise and Díaz on the wings feeding Kane. 1:3 is our main score. 1:2 is the tighter version. The pick loses only with a draw, like the 0:0 at Schalke, or a repeat of January.
Arguing against ourselves
- 01Augsburg won 2:1 at the Allianz Arena in January, Bayern’s only league defeat in their last 47 league games.
- 02Without Musiala, Bayern have less creativity between the lines; they drew 0:0 at Schalke this season.
- 03It is the first game after a three-week break, and Bayern play in the Champions League at Viking on Tuesday.
Key factBayern have won six and drawn one this season, including the Supercup at Dortmund, and scored 14 goals in four league games, 7:0 against Union Berlin last time out. Augsburg beat Schalke 3:0 and won 4:1 at Frankfurt, then drew 2:2 with Leverkusen and lost 3:2 at Werder Bremen before the break.
Full match analysisLeg 2 · Football · Netherlands · Eredivisie · 10 OCT · 20:00 UK
Ajax vs NEC
Ajax win1.32Lost
Why this pickAjax took almost 25 shots a game in their last five and lead NEC by six points; NEC have not won in five. Five Ajax absentees make a clean sheet unlikely, so we expect 2:1.
- Predicted score · alt 1:1
- 2:1
- Our estimate · Ajax win
- 68–72%
Form · Ajax 10 from 15. NEC 2 from 15.
Ajax10 pts
- Drawvs Excelsior2:2
- Winvs Willem II5:1
- Winvs Fortuna Sittard5:1
- Lossvs PSV1:3
- Winvs Telstar4:0
- Goals scored per game in these matches.
- 3.40
- Goals conceded per game in these matches.
- 1.40
- Share of these matches with three or more goals.
- 100%
- Both teams to score: share of these matches in which both sides scored.
- 80%
NEC2 pts
- Drawvs Go Ahead Eagles1:1
- Lossvs Juventus0:5
- Lossvs Cambuur0:3
- Drawvs Excelsior2:2
- Lossvs Feyenoord1:3
- Goals scored per game in these matches.
- 0.80
- Goals conceded per game in these matches.
- 2.80
- Share of these matches with three or more goals.
- 80%
- Both teams to score: share of these matches in which both sides scored.
- 60%
Lineups · Expected
- Ajax
- OutKasper DolbergSerious knee injury, season practically over
- OutDaley BlindBack pain after a collision in August
- OutAnton GaaeiKnee problem from international duty
- OutSteven BerghuisOld injuries, no return date
- OutCaio HenriqueThigh injury, out for weeks
- NEC
- OutGonzalo CrettazHamstring injury
- OutDeveron Fonville
- OutAhmetcan KaplanKnee injury
- OutBram Nuytinck
- OutEmre MorGroin injury
- DoubtClement BischoffHamstring injury
- DoubtKevin Kers
What others predict · Consensus 4 of 4
Our positionWe agree on an Ajax win and expect NEC to score: Ajax have conceded in four of their last five league games.
Scenario & score
Ajax shoot, NEC wait for a mistake. Ajax have taken 73% of the shots in their last five games, almost 25 a match, and should keep NEC in their own half. The risk is at the other end: with Blind and Gaaei out, the back line is new and Ajax concede from very little. 2:1 is our main score. 1:1 is the danger, as in the 1:1 in Amsterdam last February.
Arguing against ourselves
- 01Ajax have not beaten NEC in their last three meetings, including a 0:3 defeat and a 1:1 draw in Amsterdam.
- 02Two defenders, Blind and Gaaei, are out, and Ajax drew 2:2 with Excelsior despite 33 shots to four.
- 03Ajax play Hajduk Split in the Conference League on Thursday.
Key factAjax won 5:1 at Fortuna Sittard and 5:1 against Willem II in September, and their only league defeat is 1:3 at home to PSV. NEC have drawn two and lost three in their last five, including 0:5 at Juventus in the Europa League and 0:3 at Cambuur.
Full match analysis