Klopp still can't work out Bayern without the ball. Kompany: "Next question"
Our take Klopp's doubt comes with a number: 8 in 4
Football · Germany · Bundesliga · Matchday 5 · Augsburg
AugsburgvsBayern FC Augsburg vs Bayern Munich · prediction
Score
2:2
Date
10 OCT
City
Augsburg
Status
Full time
FCA2:2FCBFull time
No. 01 · The short versionIn our Double
Who will win Augsburg vs Bayern?
Bayern Munich are unbeaten in all seven competitive games this season and have conceded two Bundesliga goals in four matches. FC Augsburg are fifth on seven points but play without Noahkai Banks, Tim Breithaupt and Steve Mounié. We back a Bayern win at the WWK Arena, most likely 1:3.
- Predicted score · alt 1:2
- 1:3
- Our estimate
- 80–84%
- Market
- Bayern win
- Our bet
- Double No. 59 · total odds 1.53
- Leg odds
- 1.16
Augsburg vs Bayern at a glance
| Match | FC Augsburg vs Bayern Munich |
|---|---|
| Competition | Bundesliga · Matchday 5 |
| Kick-off | 10 OCT · 14:30 UK · 15:30 Augsburg |
| Venue | WWK Arena, Augsburg |
| Our pick | Bayern win · 1.16 · Double No. 59 · total odds 1.53 |
| Our estimate | 80–84% |
| Predicted score | 1:3 |
| Main reason | Our editorial team sees a clear gap. |
No. 04 · Form
Augsburg vs Bayern: recent form
Augsburg 10 from 15. Bayern 13 from 15.
Augsburg10 pts
- Lossvs Werder Bremen2:3
- Drawvs Bayer Leverkusen2:2
- Winvs Eintracht Frankfurt4:1
- Winvs Schalke 043:0
- Winvs Energie Cottbus2:0
- Goals scored per game in these matches.
- 2.60
- Goals conceded per game in these matches.
- 1.20
- Share of these matches with three or more goals.
- 80%
- Both teams to score: share of these matches in which both sides scored.
- 60%
Bayern13 pts
- Winvs Union Berlin7:0
- Winvs SV Elversberg2:1
- Winvs Bodø/Glimt5:0
- Drawvs Schalke 040:0
- Winvs VfL Osnabrück4:1
- Goals scored per game in these matches.
- 3.60
- Goals conceded per game in these matches.
- 0.40
- Share of these matches with three or more goals.
- 80%
- Both teams to score: share of these matches in which both sides scored.
- 40%
Key factBayern have won six and drawn one this season, including the Supercup at Dortmund, and scored 14 goals in four league games, 7:0 against Union Berlin last time out. Augsburg beat Schalke 3:0 and won 4:1 at Frankfurt, then drew 2:2 with Leverkusen and lost 3:2 at Werder Bremen before the break.
No. 05 · LineupsExpected
Augsburg vs Bayern team news
Musiala out for Bayern; Augsburg without Banks, Breithaupt, Sakar and Mounié.
Augsburg
- OutNoahkai BanksKnee ligament injury on Germany U21 duty
- OutTim BreithauptToe injury
- OutFaik SakarAnkle injury
- OutSteve Mounié
Bayern
- OutJamal MusialaTorn muscle fibre in the right thigh
TacticsVincent Kompany loses Jamal Musiala, who tore a muscle fibre in his right thigh while warming up for Germany, so the expected Bayern attack is Olise, Díaz and Kane behind Kimmich and Pavlović. Manuel Baum’s Augsburg are missing centre-back Noahkai Banks, hurt with Germany U21, plus Breithaupt, Sakar and Mounié; the previews expect a back three of Brackelmann, Gouweleeuw and Matsima with Gregoritsch up front.
In the news
Bayern's 6-1 hid it: Olise banned, Musiala out, Neuer a doubt for Arsenal
Our take Without Olise, Arsenal arrive as the better side
Luis Díaz had 49 goals and assists last season. In his last six games: none
Our take No panic: Bayern have no other left winger
No. 06 · What others predictConsensus 4 of 4
Who do others back in Augsburg vs Bayern?
All four previews we read pick Bayern.
| Source | Pick | Versus us |
|---|---|---|
| Sports Mole | Augsburg 1:3 Bayern | Same side |
| Sportsgambler | Bayern to win, 1:2 | Same side |
| FootballPredictions.com | Augsburg 0:3 Bayern | Same side |
| Khel Now | Augsburg 1:3 Bayern | Same side |
Our positionWe agree on the winner and expect Augsburg to score once: they have scored in every league game this season.
No. 07 · Scenario & score
Augsburg vs Bayern predicted score
Bayern on the ball, Augsburg waiting for the counter.
Bayern have taken 85% of the shots in their last five games and should pin Augsburg back from the start, with Olise and Díaz on the wings feeding Kane. 1:3 is our main score. 1:2 is the tighter version. The pick loses only with a draw, like the 0:0 at Schalke, or a repeat of January.
- Predicted score
- 1:3
- Alternative
- 1:2
Your score
FCA
FCB
No. 08 · Why this pick wins
Our Augsburg vs Bayern pick: Bayern win
Bayern win: why this pick wins
Why we back it
Our editorial team sees a clear gap. Bayern have not lost in seven games this season, they have conceded two goals in four league matches, and in their last five games they allowed 1.2 shots on target per match. Augsburg are a good side going forward, but they are missing their young centre-back Banks and two more starters. We expect Bayern to control the game and win it, most likely 1:3.
Our probability80–84%
Our pickBayern win
Leg odds1.16
Main scenario1:3
- Our scenario
- 1:3alternative 1:2
What would change our mind A Bayern line-up without Kane and Olise, or heavy rotation with Tuesday’s Champions League game in mind.
Odds and break-even, for reference
| Market | Odds | Break-even |
|---|---|---|
| Augsburg win | 11.99 | 8.3% |
| Draw | 8.49 | 11.8% |
| Bayern win | 1.16 | 86.2% |
Odds snapshot 10 OCT 10:48 · no bookmaker names
No. 09 · Arguing against ourselves
What could beat our pick?
Why this could go wrong.
- Augsburg won 2:1 at the Allianz Arena in January, Bayern’s only league defeat in their last 47 league games.
- Without Musiala, Bayern have less creativity between the lines; they drew 0:0 at Schalke this season.
- It is the first game after a three-week break, and Bayern play in the Champions League at Viking on Tuesday.
No. 10 · Editor’s call
Double
Bayern win is one leg of our double No. 59. We bet the double, not this match alone: total odds 1.53, 2.00 units.
Open double No. 59 →Information only. No guarantees.18+Play responsibly
No. 11 · Update log
- Prediction published · Bayern win at 1.16
No. 12 · After the match
- We said
- 1:3Bet at 1.16
- Happened
- 2:2Draw
Lost
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FAQ
What does Bet mean?
We expect this result and play it, as a single or as one leg of a double. It is logged in the tracker at the published odds.
How do you choose a pick?
We start from the market, then check a statistical model, named previews and our own scenario test against everything that moves the result: lineups, rest, motivation, style and team news. We publish when at least three of the four agree and the pick wins in the main scorelines. A warning sign, such as a back-up goalie or tired legs, moves us to a safer market or leaves the match as analysis only.
Can a prediction change after publishing?
No. The pick, odds and time are locked when published. Updates go into the log above.