AFC Ajax vs NEC Nijmegen prediction and odds

No. 01 · The short versionIn our Double

Who will win Ajax vs NEC?

AFC Ajax are fifth on 14 points and scored 17 goals in their last five league games; NEC Nijmegen are 11th on eight and have not won in five matches in all competitions. Ajax are missing five players, two of them defenders, but we still back a home win at the Johan Cruijff ArenA, most likely 2:1.

Predicted score · alt 1:1: 2:1
Our estimate: 68–72%

Ajax win · odds 1.32Our estimate, not a guarantee

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Market: Ajax win
Our bet: Double No. 59 · total odds 1.53
Leg odds: 1.32

Ajax vs NEC at a glance

Match	AFC Ajax vs NEC Nijmegen
Competition	Eredivisie · Matchday 8
Kick-off	10 OCT · 20:00 UK · 21:00 Amsterdam
Venue	Johan Cruijff ArenA, Amsterdam
Our pick	Ajax win · 1.32 · Double No. 59 · total odds 1.53
Our estimate	68–72%
Predicted score	2:1
Main reason	Our editorial team expects Ajax to win at home.

No. 04 · Form

Ajax vs NEC: recent form

Ajax 10 from 15. NEC 2 from 15.

Ajax10 pts

Drawvs Excelsior2:2
Winvs Willem II5:1
Winvs Fortuna Sittard5:1
Lossvs PSV1:3
Winvs Telstar4:0

: 3.40
: 1.40
: 100%
: 80%

NEC2 pts

Drawvs Go Ahead Eagles1:1
Lossvs Juventus0:5
Lossvs Cambuur0:3
Drawvs Excelsior2:2
Lossvs Feyenoord1:3

: 0.80
: 2.80
: 80%
: 60%

Key factAjax won 5:1 at Fortuna Sittard and 5:1 against Willem II in September, and their only league defeat is 1:3 at home to PSV. NEC have drawn two and lost three in their last five, including 0:5 at Juventus in the Europa League and 0:3 at Cambuur.

No. 05 · LineupsExpected

Ajax vs NEC team news

Ajax without Dolberg, Blind, Gaaei, Berghuis and Caio Henrique; Bouwman is back.

Ajax

OutKasper DolbergSerious knee injury, season practically over
OutDaley BlindBack pain after a collision in August
OutAnton GaaeiKnee problem from international duty
OutSteven BerghuisOld injuries, no return date
OutCaio HenriqueThigh injury, out for weeks

NEC

OutGonzalo CrettazHamstring injury
OutDeveron Fonville
OutAhmetcan KaplanKnee injury
OutBram Nuytinck
OutEmre MorGroin injury
DoubtClement BischoffHamstring injury
DoubtKevin Kers

TacticsMíchel confirmed at Friday’s press conference that Dolberg, Blind, Gaaei, Berghuis and Caio Henrique are out, while defender Aaron Bouwman is available again and new signings Bissouma and Adingra could make their debuts. Dick Schreuder’s NEC have five players out, including Crettaz, Kaplan and Emre Mor, and Bischoff and Kers are touch-and-go.

No. 06 · What others predictConsensus 4 of 4

Who do others back in Ajax vs NEC?

All four previews we read pick an Ajax win.

Source	Pick	Versus us
Sports Mole	Ajax 2:1 NEC	Same side
Sportsgambler	Ajax to win, 2:1	Same side
Football Whispers	Ajax 3:1 NEC	Same side
FootballPredictions.net	Ajax 3:1 NEC	Same side

Our positionWe agree on an Ajax win and expect NEC to score: Ajax have conceded in four of their last five league games.

No. 07 · Scenario & score

Ajax vs NEC predicted score

Ajax shoot, NEC wait for a mistake.

Ajax have taken 73% of the shots in their last five games, almost 25 a match, and should keep NEC in their own half. The risk is at the other end: with Blind and Gaaei out, the back line is new and Ajax concede from very little. 2:1 is our main score. 1:1 is the danger, as in the 1:1 in Amsterdam last February.

Predicted score: 2:1
Alternative: 1:1

Your score

AJA2

NEC1

No. 08 · Why this pick wins

Our Ajax vs NEC pick: Ajax win

Ajax win: why this pick wins

Why we back it

Our editorial team expects Ajax to win at home. They lead NEC by six points, they have scored 21 goals in seven league games, and over their last five matches they took almost 25 shots a game against nine. NEC arrive without a win in five, with five players out, after losing 0:5 at Juventus and 0:3 at Cambuur. The absences make Ajax less solid at the back, so we expect a 2:1 rather than a rout.

Our probability68–72%

Our pickAjax win

Leg odds1.32

Main scenario2:1

Our scenario: 2:1alternative 1:1

What would change our mind An Ajax line-up with another starting defender missing, or a confirmed NEC eleven at full strength with Bischoff and Kers fit.

Odds and break-even, for reference

Market	Odds	Break-even
Ajax win	1.32	75.8%
Draw	5.69	17.6%
NEC win	7.07	14.1%

Odds snapshot 10 OCT 10:48 · no bookmaker names

No. 09 · Arguing against ourselves

What could beat our pick?

Why this could go wrong.

Ajax have not beaten NEC in their last three meetings, including a 0:3 defeat and a 1:1 draw in Amsterdam.
Two defenders, Blind and Gaaei, are out, and Ajax drew 2:2 with Excelsior despite 33 shots to four.
Ajax play Hajduk Split in the Conference League on Thursday.

No. 10 · Editor’s call

Double

Ajax win is one leg of our double No. 59. We bet the double, not this match alone: total odds 1.53, 2.00 units.

Leg 1: Bayern win @ 1.16
Leg 2 · this match: Ajax win @ 1.32
Total odds: 1.53 · 2.00 units
Published: 10 OCT 10:46

Open double No. 59 →

Information only. No guarantees.18+Play responsibly

No. 11 · Update log

10:46Prediction published · Ajax win at 1.32

No. 12 · After the match

We said: 2:1Bet at 1.32
Happened: 1:1Draw

Lost

FAQ

What does Bet mean?

We expect this result and play it, as a single or as one leg of a double. It is logged in the tracker at the published odds.

How do you choose a pick?

We start from the market, then check a statistical model, named previews and our own scenario test against everything that moves the result: lineups, rest, motivation, style and team news. We publish when at least three of the four agree and the pick wins in the main scorelines. A warning sign, such as a back-up goalie or tired legs, moves us to a safer market or leaves the match as analysis only.

Can a prediction change after publishing?

No. The pick, odds and time are locked when published. Updates go into the log above.

AjaxvsNEC AFC Ajax vs NEC Nijmegen · prediction