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Double · No. 61 · 10 OCTWon

Inter vs Parma + Real Madrid vs Villarreal

  1. 01Inter vs ParmaInter win1.13 · Won
  2. 02Real Madrid vs VillarrealReal Madrid win1.35 · Won
Total odds
1.53
Stake
2.00 units
P&L
+1.06 units
Our estimate
55–61%
Published 10 OCT 09:52
Odds: average of 32 popular bookmakers, 10 OCT 09:5418+Play responsibly
Why this betInter at home to the Serie A side with the fewest shots on target, and Real Madrid at the Bernabéu against a Villarreal side that host Napoli three days later. Both legs need only a home win: Inter are unbeaten in the league, and Real have won the last four meetings with Villarreal.
Leg 1 · Football · Italy · Serie A · 10 OCT · 17:00 UK

Inter vs Parma

Inter win1.13Won
Why this pickInter are unbeaten in Serie A and lead the league in shots on target and expected goals; Parma are last in both and have lost their last four away games. We expect a home win, most likely 3:0.
Predicted score · alt 1:0
3:0
Our estimate · Inter win
82–86%

Form · Inter 10 from 15. Parma 4 from 15.

Inter10 pts
  • Drawvs Roma2:2
  • Winvs Udinese5:3
  • Lossvs Real Madrid1:2
  • Winvs Napoli3:2
  • Winvs Cagliari1:0
Goals scored per game in these matches.
2.40
Goals conceded per game in these matches.
1.80
Share of these matches with three or more goals.
80%
Both teams to score: share of these matches in which both sides scored.
80%
Parma4 pts
  • Winvs Genoa2:1
  • Lossvs Como1:2
  • Drawvs Monza1:1
  • Lossvs Cremonese0:2
  • Lossvs Juventus0:2
Goals scored per game in these matches.
0.80
Goals conceded per game in these matches.
1.60
Share of these matches with three or more goals.
40%
Both teams to score: share of these matches in which both sides scored.
60%

Lineups · Expected

  • Inter
  • OutJohn StonesThigh flexor problem
  • OutCurtis JonesRight thigh injury
  • Parma
  • OutHans Nicolussi CavigliaGroin problem
  • OutPontus AlmqvistCalf injury
  • DoubtDominik DrobničWrist injury

What others predict · Consensus 3 of 3

Our positionWe agree on the winner and side with the clean-sheet scores: Parma have the fewest shots on target in Serie A.

Scenario & score

Inter on the ball, Parma deep in their half. Inter have the highest average possession in the league (63.1%) and should pin Parma back from the start; Thuram has scored in all four of his Serie A games against Parma. 3:0 is our main score. 1:0 is the tighter version: a slow first game after the break and some rotation before Club Brugge on Tuesday.

Arguing against ourselves

  1. 01Inter have three draws in their last ten games, the latest 2:2 at Roma.
  2. 02Club Brugge come to San Siro in the Champions League on Tuesday, so Chivu may rotate.
  3. 03It is the first game after a three-week break, and Chivu has not said who starts in goal.
Key factInter have four wins and a draw in the league, the last a 2:2 at Roma before the break. Parma have one win in their last five league games and have scored more than once only in that 2:1 against Genoa. Inter are unbeaten in nine league meetings with Parma (six wins, three draws) and have scored at least twice in each of the last eight.
Full match analysis
Leg 2 · Football · Spain · LaLiga · 10 OCT · 20:00 UK

Real Madrid vs Villarreal

Real Madrid win1.35Won
Why this pickReal have scored four in each of their last three home league games and have won the last four meetings with Villarreal. Four defenders are out, so we take the straight win; most likely 3:1.
Predicted score · alt 2:2
3:1
Our estimate · Real Madrid win
67–71%

Form · Real Madrid 9 from 15. Villarreal 6 from 15.

Real Madrid9 pts
  • Lossvs Atlético1:2
  • Winvs Elche3:2
  • Winvs Rayo4:1
  • Winvs Inter2:1
  • Lossvs Betis0:1
Goals scored per game in these matches.
2.00
Goals conceded per game in these matches.
1.40
Share of these matches with three or more goals.
80%
Both teams to score: share of these matches in which both sides scored.
80%
Villarreal6 pts
  • Winvs Levante3:1
  • Winvs Málaga3:1
  • Lossvs Betis1:2
  • Lossvs Dortmund2:3
  • Lossvs Deportivo2:3
Goals scored per game in these matches.
2.20
Goals conceded per game in these matches.
2.00
Share of these matches with three or more goals.
100%
Both teams to score: share of these matches in which both sides scored.
100%

Lineups · Expected

  • Real Madrid
  • OutDean HuijsenSuspended
  • OutÉder MilitãoMuscle injury
  • OutRodrygoKnee injury
  • OutFerland MendyThigh injury
  • OutRaúl AsencioTibia stress fracture
  • DoubtFederico ValverdeAnkle sprain, in the squad
  • DoubtIbrahima KonatéKnee ligament, in the squad
  • Villarreal
  • OutTajon BuchananHamstring injury

What others predict · Consensus 4 of 4

Our positionWe agree on the winner and on 3:1: Villarreal usually score, but Real have scored four in each of their last three home league games.

Scenario & score

Real’s attack against Villarreal’s counters. Real should have more of the ball and the better chances through Vinícius and Mbappé. Villarreal have scored 11 goals in their last five games and will try to break quickly at a back line without Huijsen, Militão and Asencio. 3:1 is our main score. 2:2 is the risk: Villarreal score twice on the break while Real look ahead to Rome on Wednesday.

Arguing against ourselves

  1. 01Four of Real’s defenders are out, Huijsen through suspension.
  2. 02Real play Roma away in the Champions League on Wednesday, and Villarreal host Napoli on Tuesday.
  3. 03Villarreal have scored 11 goals in their last five games, and Real lost two of their last three away league games.
Key factReal are fourth on 15 points, six behind leaders Barcelona, after losing the derby 1:2 at Atlético before the break. At home they beat Real Sociedad 4:1, Málaga 4:0 and Rayo 4:1 in the league and Inter 2:1 in the Champions League. Villarreal won their last two league games, at Málaga and against Levante, after three league defeats in a row. Real have lost only six of 55 meetings with Villarreal.
Full match analysis