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Football · Spain · LaLiga · Matchday 8 · Madrid
Real MadridvsVillarreal prediction
Score
1:0
Date
10 OCT
City
Madrid
Status
Full time
RMA1:0VILFull time
No. 01 · The short versionIn our Double
Who will win Real Madrid vs Villarreal?
Real Madrid have scored four goals in each of their last three home league games and have won the last four meetings with Villarreal. José Mourinho is without four defenders, Dean Huijsen through suspension plus the injured Militão, Mendy and Asencio, but Mbappé, Valverde and Konaté are back in the squad. Villarreal are ninth on eight points. We back a Real Madrid win at the Bernabéu, most likely 3:1.
- Predicted score · alt 2:2
- 3:1
- Our estimate
- 67–71%
- Market
- Real Madrid win
- Our bet
- Double No. 61 · total odds 1.53
- Leg odds
- 1.35
Real Madrid vs Villarreal at a glance
| Match | Real Madrid vs Villarreal |
|---|---|
| Competition | LaLiga · Matchday 8 |
| Kick-off | 10 OCT · 20:00 UK · 21:00 Madrid |
| Venue | Santiago Bernabéu, Madrid |
| Our pick | Real Madrid win · 1.35 · Double No. 61 · total odds 1.53 |
| Our estimate | 67–71% |
| Predicted score | 3:1 |
| Main reason | Our editorial team expects the home win. |
No. 04 · Form
Real Madrid vs Villarreal: recent form
Real Madrid 9 from 15. Villarreal 6 from 15.
Real Madrid9 pts
- Lossvs Atlético1:2
- Winvs Elche3:2
- Winvs Rayo4:1
- Winvs Inter2:1
- Lossvs Betis0:1
- Goals scored per game in these matches.
- 2.00
- Goals conceded per game in these matches.
- 1.40
- Share of these matches with three or more goals.
- 80%
- Both teams to score: share of these matches in which both sides scored.
- 80%
Villarreal6 pts
- Winvs Levante3:1
- Winvs Málaga3:1
- Lossvs Betis1:2
- Lossvs Dortmund2:3
- Lossvs Deportivo2:3
- Goals scored per game in these matches.
- 2.20
- Goals conceded per game in these matches.
- 2.00
- Share of these matches with three or more goals.
- 100%
- Both teams to score: share of these matches in which both sides scored.
- 100%
Key factReal are fourth on 15 points, six behind leaders Barcelona, after losing the derby 1:2 at Atlético before the break. At home they beat Real Sociedad 4:1, Málaga 4:0 and Rayo 4:1 in the league and Inter 2:1 in the Champions League. Villarreal won their last two league games, at Málaga and against Levante, after three league defeats in a row. Real have lost only six of 55 meetings with Villarreal.
No. 05 · LineupsExpected
Real Madrid vs Villarreal team news
Huijsen suspended and four more out for Real; Valverde and Konaté in the squad.
Real Madrid
- OutDean HuijsenSuspended
- OutÉder MilitãoMuscle injury
- OutRodrygoKnee injury
- OutFerland MendyThigh injury
- OutRaúl AsencioTibia stress fracture
- DoubtFederico ValverdeAnkle sprain, in the squad
- DoubtIbrahima KonatéKnee ligament, in the squad
Villarreal
- OutTajon BuchananHamstring injury
TacticsMourinho has named Mbappé, Valverde and Konaté in his squad. Valverde is coming back from a grade 3 ankle sprain picked up in the derby and may start on the bench, and reports differ on whether Konaté, who left the France camp with a knee ligament problem, will start. With Huijsen, Militão and Asencio out, Rüdiger is the fixed point at the back. Villarreal are without Tajon Buchanan (hamstring), while Santi Comesaña is back from injury.
In the news
Aguirre says Valencia have no strikers: 2 goals, 2 points from 5 Mestalla games
Our take The numbers back Aguirre: Valencia lack finishers
Report: Pérez eyes Deschamps if Mourinho fails, and the Clásico is the test
Our take The table will decide this before Pérez does
No. 06 · What others predictConsensus 4 of 4
Who do others back in Real Madrid vs Villarreal?
All four previews we read expect a Real Madrid win.
| Source | Pick | Versus us |
|---|---|---|
| Sports Mole | Real Madrid 3:1 | Same side |
| RotoWire | Real Madrid 3:1 | Same side |
| The Real Champs (LiveScore) | Real Madrid 3:1 | Same side |
| Khel Now | Real Madrid 2:1 | Same side |
Our positionWe agree on the winner and on 3:1: Villarreal usually score, but Real have scored four in each of their last three home league games.
No. 07 · Scenario & score
Real Madrid vs Villarreal predicted score
Real’s attack against Villarreal’s counters.
Real should have more of the ball and the better chances through Vinícius and Mbappé. Villarreal have scored 11 goals in their last five games and will try to break quickly at a back line without Huijsen, Militão and Asencio. 3:1 is our main score. 2:2 is the risk: Villarreal score twice on the break while Real look ahead to Rome on Wednesday.
- Predicted score
- 3:1
- Alternative
- 2:2
Your score
RMA
VIL
No. 08 · Why this pick wins
Our Real Madrid vs Villarreal pick: Real Madrid win
Real Madrid win: why this pick wins
Why we back it
Our editorial team expects the home win. Real have scored four in each of their last three home league games and have beaten Villarreal in the last four meetings. Villarreal won their last two league games but lost three in a row before that, and they host Napoli in the Champions League three days later. The gaps in Real’s defence are real, so we take a straight win and no handicap. We expect Real Madrid to win, most likely 3:1.
Our probability67–71%
Our pickReal Madrid win
Leg odds1.35
Main scenario3:1
- Our scenario
- 3:1alternative 2:2
What would change our mind Mbappé and Valverde both out of the starting XI, or Mourinho resting players for Rome.
Odds and break-even, for reference
| Market | Odds | Break-even |
|---|---|---|
| Real Madrid win | 1.35 | 74.1% |
| Draw | 5.72 | 17.5% |
| Villarreal win | 6.89 | 14.5% |
Odds snapshot 10 OCT 10:54 · no bookmaker names
No. 09 · Arguing against ourselves
What could beat our pick?
Why this could go wrong.
- Four of Real’s defenders are out, Huijsen through suspension.
- Real play Roma away in the Champions League on Wednesday, and Villarreal host Napoli on Tuesday.
- Villarreal have scored 11 goals in their last five games, and Real lost two of their last three away league games.
No. 10 · Editor’s call
Double
Real Madrid win is one leg of our double No. 61. We bet the double, not this match alone: total odds 1.53, 2.00 units.
Open double No. 61 →Information only. No guarantees.18+Play responsibly
No. 11 · Update log
- Prediction published · Real Madrid win at 1.35
No. 12 · After the match
- We said
- 3:1Bet at 1.35
- Happened
- 1:0Real Madrid win
Won
Read next
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FAQ
What does Bet mean?
We expect this result and play it, as a single or as one leg of a double. It is logged in the tracker at the published odds.
How do you choose a pick?
We start from the market, then check a statistical model, named previews and our own scenario test against everything that moves the result: lineups, rest, motivation, style and team news. We publish when at least three of the four agree and the pick wins in the main scorelines. A warning sign, such as a back-up goalie or tired legs, moves us to a safer market or leaves the match as analysis only.
Can a prediction change after publishing?
No. The pick, odds and time are locked when published. Updates go into the log above.