Report: Inter top Serie A with 0 Champions League points, and Chivu turns to Provedel
Our take Inter's European problem is six goals, not one goalkeeper
Football · Italy · Serie A · Matchday 6 · Milan
IntervsParma Inter Milan vs Parma · prediction
Score
3:0
Date
10 OCT
City
Milan
Status
Full time
INT3:0PARFull time
No. 01 · The short versionIn our Double
Who will win Inter vs Parma?
Inter are unbeaten in Serie A after five rounds, level on 13 points at the top with Roma and Lazio, and lead the league in shots on target (37) and expected goals (14.5). Parma are 15th on four points, are last in both of those tables (14 shots on target, 3.4 xG) and have lost their last four away league games. We back an Inter win at San Siro, most likely 3:0.
- Predicted score · alt 1:0
- 3:0
- Our estimate
- 82–86%
- Market
- Inter win
- Our bet
- Double No. 61 · total odds 1.53
- Leg odds
- 1.13
Inter vs Parma at a glance
| Match | Inter Milan vs Parma |
|---|---|
| Competition | Serie A · Matchday 6 |
| Kick-off | 10 OCT · 17:00 UK · 18:00 Milan |
| Venue | San Siro, Milan |
| Our pick | Inter win · 1.13 · Double No. 61 · total odds 1.53 |
| Our estimate | 82–86% |
| Predicted score | 3:0 |
| Main reason | Our editorial team sees one of the clearest gaps of the weekend. |
No. 04 · Form
Inter vs Parma: recent form
Inter 10 from 15. Parma 4 from 15.
Inter10 pts
- Drawvs Roma2:2
- Winvs Udinese5:3
- Lossvs Real Madrid1:2
- Winvs Napoli3:2
- Winvs Cagliari1:0
- Goals scored per game in these matches.
- 2.40
- Goals conceded per game in these matches.
- 1.80
- Share of these matches with three or more goals.
- 80%
- Both teams to score: share of these matches in which both sides scored.
- 80%
Parma4 pts
- Winvs Genoa2:1
- Lossvs Como1:2
- Drawvs Monza1:1
- Lossvs Cremonese0:2
- Lossvs Juventus0:2
- Goals scored per game in these matches.
- 0.80
- Goals conceded per game in these matches.
- 1.60
- Share of these matches with three or more goals.
- 40%
- Both teams to score: share of these matches in which both sides scored.
- 60%
Key factInter have four wins and a draw in the league, the last a 2:2 at Roma before the break. Parma have one win in their last five league games and have scored more than once only in that 2:1 against Genoa. Inter are unbeaten in nine league meetings with Parma (six wins, three draws) and have scored at least twice in each of the last eight.
No. 05 · LineupsExpected
Inter vs Parma team news
Inter without Stones and Curtis Jones; Parma without Nicolussi Caviglia and Almqvist.
Inter
- OutJohn StonesThigh flexor problem
- OutCurtis JonesRight thigh injury
Parma
- OutHans Nicolussi CavigliaGroin problem
- OutPontus AlmqvistCalf injury
- DoubtDominik DrobničWrist injury
TacticsChivu has Calhanoglu back in full training since Monday and has called up Djed Spence for the first time; he would not say whether Provedel starts in goal. Stones (thigh flexor) and Curtis Jones (right thigh) are out. Lautaro Martínez comes in with braces against Napoli and Roma. Alberto Gilardino, who replaced Carlos Cuesta in late September, is without Nicolussi Caviglia and Almqvist, and Drobnič is a doubt with a wrist problem.
In the news
No. 06 · What others predictConsensus 3 of 3
Who do others back in Inter vs Parma?
All three previews we read expect an Inter win.
| Source | Pick | Versus us |
|---|---|---|
| Sports Mole | Inter 3:0 | Same side |
| Goal | Inter 2:0, a win without conceding | Same side |
| LiveScore | Inter 3:1 | Same side |
Our positionWe agree on the winner and side with the clean-sheet scores: Parma have the fewest shots on target in Serie A.
No. 07 · Scenario & score
Inter vs Parma predicted score
Inter on the ball, Parma deep in their half.
Inter have the highest average possession in the league (63.1%) and should pin Parma back from the start; Thuram has scored in all four of his Serie A games against Parma. 3:0 is our main score. 1:0 is the tighter version: a slow first game after the break and some rotation before Club Brugge on Tuesday.
- Predicted score
- 3:0
- Alternative
- 1:0
Your score
INT
PAR
No. 08 · Why this pick wins
Our Inter vs Parma pick: Inter win
Inter win: why this pick wins
Why we back it
Our editorial team sees one of the clearest gaps of the weekend. Inter are unbeaten in Serie A, lead the league in shots on target and expected goals, and have not lost a league game to Parma in nine meetings. Parma are 15th, have the fewest shots on target in the division and have lost their last four away games. We expect Inter to control the game at San Siro and win it, most likely 3:0.
Our probability82–86%
Our pickInter win
Leg odds1.13
Main scenario3:0
- Our scenario
- 3:0alternative 1:0
What would change our mind An Inter XI rotated for the Champions League, with both Lautaro and Thuram on the bench.
Odds and break-even, for reference
| Market | Odds | Break-even |
|---|---|---|
| Inter win | 1.13 | 88.5% |
| Draw | 8.55 | 11.7% |
| Parma win | 17.41 | 5.7% |
Odds snapshot 10 OCT 10:54 · no bookmaker names
No. 09 · Arguing against ourselves
What could beat our pick?
Why this could go wrong.
- Inter have three draws in their last ten games, the latest 2:2 at Roma.
- Club Brugge come to San Siro in the Champions League on Tuesday, so Chivu may rotate.
- It is the first game after a three-week break, and Chivu has not said who starts in goal.
No. 10 · Editor’s call
Double
Inter win is one leg of our double No. 61. We bet the double, not this match alone: total odds 1.53, 2.00 units.
Open double No. 61 →Information only. No guarantees.18+Play responsibly
No. 11 · Update log
- Prediction published · Inter win at 1.13
No. 12 · After the match
- We said
- 3:0Bet at 1.13
- Happened
- 3:0Inter win
Won
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FAQ
What does Bet mean?
We expect this result and play it, as a single or as one leg of a double. It is logged in the tracker at the published odds.
How do you choose a pick?
We start from the market, then check a statistical model, named previews and our own scenario test against everything that moves the result: lineups, rest, motivation, style and team news. We publish when at least three of the four agree and the pick wins in the main scorelines. A warning sign, such as a back-up goalie or tired legs, moves us to a safer market or leaves the match as analysis only.
Can a prediction change after publishing?
No. The pick, odds and time are locked when published. Updates go into the log above.