Double · No. 63 · 10 OCTWon
Unicaja vs Andorra + Breogán vs Girona
- 01Unicaja vs AndorraUnicaja win1.10 · Won
- 02Breogán vs GironaBreogán win1.33 · Won
- Total odds
- 1.46
- Stake
- 2.00 units
- P&L
- +0.92 units
- Our estimate
- 55–61%
Published 10 OCT 09:5218+Play responsibly
Why this betA Liga Endesa double of two home wins: Unicaja, who have beaten Andorra in 12 of 14 league meetings at the Carpena, against an Andorra side without Rafa Luz, and an unbeaten Río Breogán at home to a Girona team missing two rotation players three days after a European game.
Leg 1 · Basketball · Spain · Liga Endesa (ACB) · 10 OCT · 18:30 UK
Unicaja vs Andorra
Unicaja win1.10Won
Why this pickUnicaja's two league defeats came by 2 and 5 points, and on Wednesday they won by 36 in the Champions League; Andorra have played once in a fortnight and are without Rafa Luz. We expect a home win by around ten.
- Predicted score · alt 96:78
- 90:80
- Our estimate · Unicaja win
- 82–86%
Form · Unicaja 1-2 in their last 3. Andorra 0-1.
Unicaja1-2
- Winvs Juventus Utena105:69
- Lossvs La Laguna Tenerife75:80
- Lossvs Real Madrid87:89
- Points scored per game in these games.
- 89.0
- Points allowed per game in these games.
- 79.3
- Average combined score of both teams: a guide for over/under totals.
- 168.3
- Average points difference. Plus means they win by that much on average, minus that they lose by it.
- +9.7
Andorra0-1
- Lossvs Monbus Obradoiro85:90
Lineups · Expected
- Unicaja
- OutTyson PérezLeft Achilles tendon surgery
- OutYannick NzosaRuled out in the ACB injury report
- OutAlberto DíazRuled out in the ACB injury report
- Andorra
- OutRafa LuzPubalgia, out for several weeks
- QuestionableCameron McGriffBack problem; back in full training and may make his league debut
What others predict · Consensus 3 of 3
Our positionWe agree on the winner and play only the win. Like Sportsgambler, we expect a margin nearer ten points than thirteen, so we leave the handicap alone.
Scenario & score
Unicaja's defence decides it after half-time. 90:80 is our main score: Unicaja turn the Carpena crowd into stops, and Andorra, without Luz to run the game, fade in the second half. 96:78 is the alternative if McGriff does not play and Andorra run out of legs in the fourth quarter, as they did in February. The pick loses only if Vidorreta's new team is still not working and a tight game slips away late, as it did against Tenerife.
Arguing against ourselves
- 01Unicaja are 0-2 under a new coach, and Tenerife won at the Carpena only a week ago.
- 02Three Unicaja players are out, and Barreiro is covering Tyson Pérez's minutes at two positions.
- 03Andorra have had two weeks to prepare; Unicaja played away in Lithuania on Wednesday.
- 04Our own rating, built mostly on last season, has Unicaja about seven points better at home, not the thirteen the handicap line suggests.
Key factUnicaja have beaten Andorra in 12 of their 14 league meetings at the Carpena (club figures); their last home defeat to them was in May 2021. Last February they won 91-79 in Málaga, taking the fourth quarter 31-16.
Full match analysisLeg 2 · Basketball · Spain · Liga Endesa (ACB) · 10 OCT · 20:00 UK
Breogán vs Girona
Breogán win1.33Won
Why this pickBreogán are 2-0 with 100+ points in both games; Girona are without Isaac Vázquez and Maxi Fjellerup, Pluta is doubtful, and they lost by 40 at Baskonia last Sunday. We expect a home win by around seven.
- Predicted score · alt 98:82
- 92:85
- Our estimate · Breogán win
- 67–71%
Form · Breogán 2-0 in their last 2. Girona 2-1.
Breogán2-0
- Winvs Kids&Us Manresa101:95
- Winvs Asisa Joventut110:104
Girona2-1
- Winvs Dinamo București87:75
- Lossvs Kosner Baskonia78:118
- Winvs UCAM Murcia84:77
- Points scored per game in these games.
- 83.0
- Points allowed per game in these games.
- 90.0
- Average combined score of both teams: a guide for over/under totals.
- 173.0
- Average points difference. Plus means they win by that much on average, minus that they lose by it.
- −7.0
Lineups · Expected
- Breogán
- ProbableTevin BrownAnkle knock in training; trained on Friday and is expected to play
- Girona
- OutIsaac VázquezRuled out in the ACB injury report
- OutMaxi FjellerupRight ankle, a second operation is planned
- QuestionableAndrzej PlutaAnkle problem
What others predict · Consensus 2 of 3
Our positionWe side with the majority on the winner and play only the win. Last season these teams finished one place apart, so we do not trust a handicap of six or seven points.
Scenario & score
Breogán's scoring against Girona's tempo. 92:85 is our main score: Breogán keep scoring at home, win the defensive boards Casimiro asked for, and Girona, short of two rotation players and three days after a European game, cannot keep up late on. 98:82 is the alternative if Pluta does not play. The pick loses if Girona's pace and offensive rebounding turn it into a shootout they win.
Arguing against ourselves
- 01Last regular season the teams were almost level: Breogán 15-19, Girona 14-20.
- 02Girona play at a very high tempo and attack the offensive glass, the danger Casimiro named himself.
- 03Breogán's trip home from Manresa took twelve and a half hours, and Casimiro said the team ended it physically drained.
- 04Tevin Brown is expected to play, but an ankle knock two days before the game can still limit him.
Key factBreogán beat Joventut 110-104 and won 101-95 at Manresa. A third straight win would be a first for the club in the ACB: they have tried five times, the last in 2022-23. Girona beat Murcia, then lost by 40 in Vitoria.
Full match analysis