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Basketball · Spain · Liga Endesa · Regular season, round 3 · Lugo

BreogánvsGirona Río Breogán vs Bàsquet Girona · basketball prediction

Score
115:92
Date · UK
10 OCT
Local time
21:00 · 10 OCT
City
Lugo
Status
Full time
No. 01 · The short versionIn our Double

Who will win Breogán vs Girona?

Río Breogán are 2-0 and scored 100 or more in both games, the first Liga Endesa team to do that in 22 years. Bàsquet Girona arrive three days after their European debut, without Isaac Vázquez and Maxi Fjellerup and with Andrzej Pluta doubtful; last Sunday they lost 118-78 at Baskonia. We back Breogán to win at home, overtime included.

Predicted score · alt 98:82
92:85
Our estimate
67–71%
Breogán win · odds 1.33Our estimate, not a guarantee
Why this call18+Play responsibly
Market
Breogán win
Our bet
Double No. 63 · total odds 1.46
Leg odds
1.33

Breogán vs Girona at a glance

MatchRío Breogán vs Bàsquet Girona
CompetitionLiga Endesa · Regular season, round 3
Kick-off10 OCT · 20:00 UK
VenuePazo dos Deportes, Lugo
Our pickBreogán win · 1.33 · Double No. 63 · total odds 1.46
Our estimate67–71%
Predicted score92:85
Main reasonWe think Breogán win at the Pazo.
No. 04 · Form

Breogán vs Girona: recent form

Breogán 2-0 in their last 2. Girona 2-1.

Breogán
Last game a win at Manresa on Sat 3 Oct · a week without a game
Girona
Europe Cup home win over Dinamo București on Tue 6 Oct · 3 full days' rest and a trip to Lugo
Breogán2-0
  • Winvs Kids&Us Manresa101:95
  • Winvs Asisa Joventut110:104
Girona2-1
  • Winvs Dinamo București87:75
  • Lossvs Kosner Baskonia78:118
  • Winvs UCAM Murcia84:77
Points scored per game in these games.
83.0
Points allowed per game in these games.
90.0
Average combined score of both teams: a guide for over/under totals.
173.0
Average points difference. Plus means they win by that much on average, minus that they lose by it.
−7.0
Key factBreogán beat Joventut 110-104 and won 101-95 at Manresa. A third straight win would be a first for the club in the ACB: they have tried five times, the last in 2022-23. Girona beat Murcia, then lost by 40 in Vitoria.
Season so farBREGIR
Wins and losses.2-01-1
Points scored per game in these games.211162
Points allowed per game in these games.199195
Last seasonBREGIR
Wins and losses.15-1914-20
League position1112
Point difference-77-111

Liga Endesa 2026-27 and 2025-26 · acb.com standings; 2025-26 regular season table

No. 05 · Injury reportExpected

Breogán vs Girona injury report

Girona without two rotation players; Breogán expect Tevin Brown.

Breogán
  • ProbableTevin BrownAnkle knock in training; trained on Friday and is expected to play
Girona
  • OutIsaac VázquezRuled out in the ACB injury report
  • OutMaxi FjellerupRight ankle, a second operation is planned
  • QuestionableAndrzej PlutaAnkle problem
TacticsThe ACB injury report rules out Isaac Vázquez and Maxi Fjellerup for Girona and lists Andrzej Pluta as doubtful with an ankle problem; the club says Fjellerup needs another operation on his right ankle. Breogán's Tevin Brown, 15.5 points a game, hit the basket support in training on Thursday, trained on Friday and is expected to play, coach Luis Casimiro said.
No. 06 · What others predictConsensus 2 of 3

Who do others back in Breogán vs Girona?

Two of the three previews we read favour Breogán.

SourcePickVersus us
SportsgamblerBreogán 95:85; their main bet is Breogán -6.5Same side
Basketball SphereBreogán the favourites; their bet is Girona +7.5Same side
Scores24Girona "might have a slight advantage"; their bet is under 184.5 pointsOther side
Our positionWe side with the majority on the winner and play only the win. Last season these teams finished one place apart, so we do not trust a handicap of six or seven points.
No. 07 · Scenario & score

Breogán vs Girona predicted score

Breogán's scoring against Girona's tempo.

92:85 is our main score: Breogán keep scoring at home, win the defensive boards Casimiro asked for, and Girona, short of two rotation players and three days after a European game, cannot keep up late on. 98:82 is the alternative if Pluta does not play. The pick loses if Girona's pace and offensive rebounding turn it into a shootout they win.

Predicted score
92:85
Alternative
98:82
No. 08 · Why this pick wins

Our Breogán vs Girona pick: Breogán win

Breogán win: why this pick wins

Why we back it

We think Breogán win at the Pazo. They have scored 211 points in two games and play in front of a crowd chasing a club first, three league wins in a row. Girona come in short-handed, three days after a European game, and conceded 118 in their last league outing. We expect a home win by around seven.

Our probability67–71%
Our pickBreogán win
Leg odds1.33
Main scenario92:85
Our scenario
92:85alternative 98:82

What would change our mind Tevin Brown ruled out before tip-off.

Odds and break-even, for reference
MarketOddsBreak-even
Breogán win1.3375.2%
Girona win3.1032.3%

Odds snapshot 10 OCT 09:45 · no bookmaker names

No. 09 · Arguing against ourselves

What could beat our pick?

Why this could go wrong.

  1. Last regular season the teams were almost level: Breogán 15-19, Girona 14-20.
  2. Girona play at a very high tempo and attack the offensive glass, the danger Casimiro named himself.
  3. Breogán's trip home from Manresa took twelve and a half hours, and Casimiro said the team ended it physically drained.
  4. Tevin Brown is expected to play, but an ankle knock two days before the game can still limit him.
No. 10 · Editor’s call

Double

Breogán win is one leg of our double No. 63. We bet the double, not this match alone: total odds 1.46, 2.00 units.

Leg 1
Unicaja win @ 1.10
Leg 2 · this match
Breogán win @ 1.33
Total odds
1.46 · 2.00 units
Published
10 OCT 09:52
Open double No. 63 →
Information only. No guarantees.18+Play responsibly
No. 11 · Update log
  1. Prediction published · Breogán win at 1.33
No. 12 · After the match
We said
92:85Bet at 1.33
Happened
115:92Breogán win
Won

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    FAQ

    What does Bet mean?

    We expect this result and play it, as a single or as one leg of a double. It is logged in the tracker at the published odds.

    How do you choose a pick?

    We start from the market, then check a statistical model, named previews and our own scenario test against everything that moves the result: lineups, rest, motivation, style and team news. We publish when at least three of the four agree and the pick wins in the main scorelines. A warning sign, such as a back-up goalie or tired legs, moves us to a safer market or leaves the match as analysis only.

    Can a prediction change after publishing?

    No. The pick, odds and time are locked when published. Updates go into the log above.