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Double · No. 65 · 11 OCTWon

Benfica vs Vitória SC + Beşiktaş vs Kocaelispor

  1. 01Benfica vs Vitória SCBenfica win1.18 · Won
  2. 02Beşiktaş vs KocaelisporBeşiktaş win1.23 · Won
Total odds
1.45
Stake
3.00 units
P&L
+1.35 units
Our estimate
54–60%
Published 11 OCT 07:30
Odds: average of 30 popular bookmakers, 11 OCT 07:4218+Play responsibly
Why this betBenfica at home to a Vitória SC side with one win in ten, and Beşiktaş at home to Kocaelispor. Both legs need only a home win: Benfica have won the last four meetings without conceding, and Beşiktaş take almost twice as many shots as Kocaelispor.
Leg 1 · Football · Portugal · Primeira Liga · 11 OCT · 18:00 UK

Benfica vs Vitória SC

Benfica win1.18Won
Why this pickVitória have won one of their last ten games and are without the suspended Ndoye; Benfica have won the last four meetings and Vitória did not score in any of them. Lenglet is suspended and three more are doubtful, so we take the straight win, most likely 2:0.
Predicted score · alt 1:1
2:0
Our estimate · Benfica win
76–80%

Form · Benfica 12 from 15. Vitória SC 5 from 15.

Benfica12 pts
  • Lossvs Porto1:3
  • Winvs Milan2:0
  • Winvs Gil Vicente3:1
  • Winvs Moreirense4:0
  • Winvs Marítimo3:0
Goals scored per game in these matches.
2.60
Goals conceded per game in these matches.
0.80
Share of these matches with three or more goals.
80%
Both teams to score: share of these matches in which both sides scored.
40%
Vitória SC5 pts
  • Drawvs Moreirense1:1
  • Lossvs Académico de Viseu1:2
  • Drawvs Casa Pia0:0
  • Lossvs Braga0:1
  • Winvs Nacional1:0
Goals scored per game in these matches.
0.60
Goals conceded per game in these matches.
0.80
Share of these matches with three or more goals.
20%
Both teams to score: share of these matches in which both sides scored.
40%

Lineups · Expected

  • Benfica
  • OutClément LengletSuspended
  • OutEnzo BarrenecheaKnee surgery (meniscus)
  • DoubtGeorgiy SudakovAnkle sprain
  • DoubtJakub KamińskiAdductor injury
  • DoubtAlexander BahShoulder injury, recurrence
  • Vitória SC
  • OutAlioune NdoyeSuspended, second of three games
  • DoubtGustavo SilvaThigh muscle injury

What others predict · Consensus 1 of 1

Our positionWe agree on the winner. We expect a slightly tighter game, 2:0, with Lenglet out and Celtic coming to Lisbon on Thursday.

Scenario & score

Benfica have the ball, Vitória sit deep. Benfica should dominate possession against a Vitória side that will defend in a low block and wait for set pieces. 2:0 is our main score, with the goals coming after the first half hour. 1:1 is the risk: an early Vitória goal from a set piece and a new centre-back pair that gets nervous. A draw or a Vitória win beats us.

Arguing against ourselves

  1. 01Benfica play a new central defensive pair without Lenglet, and three more players are doubtful.
  2. 02Celtic visit Lisbon in the Europa League on Thursday, so Marco Silva may rotate in the second half.
  3. 03Vitória take plenty of shots, 17.5 a game over their last ten, and have simply not been finishing them. That can turn round in one match.
Key factBenfica are fourth on 16 points from seven games, eight behind leaders Porto with a game in hand, and their 22 league goals are the most in the league. Before the Porto defeat they had won four league games in a row and beaten Milan 2:0 away in the Europa League. Vitória have five points from seven games and one win, 1:0 against Nacional. Benfica have won the last four meetings, and Vitória did not score in any of them.
Full match analysis
Leg 2 · Football · Turkey · Süper Lig · 11 OCT · 17:00 UK

Beşiktaş vs Kocaelispor

Beşiktaş win1.23Won
Why this pickOver the last ten games Beşiktaş took 18 shots a game against Kocaelispor’s ten. Kökçü and Rashica are out, but Beşiktaş need the points to stay close to Galatasaray. We expect a home win, most likely 2:0.
Predicted score · alt 2:1
2:0
Our estimate · Beşiktaş win
71–75%

Form · Beşiktaş 12 from 15. Kocaelispor 12 from 15.

Beşiktaş12 pts
  • Lossvs Amed2:3
  • Winvs Marseille4:1
  • Winvs Erzurumspor3:0
  • Winvs Fenerbahçe2:1
  • Winvs Çorum6:2
Goals scored per game in these matches.
3.40
Goals conceded per game in these matches.
1.40
Share of these matches with three or more goals.
100%
Both teams to score: share of these matches in which both sides scored.
80%
Kocaelispor12 pts
  • Winvs Gaziantep2:0
  • Lossvs Galatasaray0:1
  • Winvs Samsunspor1:0
  • Winvs Konyaspor2:1
  • Winvs Amed2:0
Goals scored per game in these matches.
1.40
Goals conceded per game in these matches.
0.40
Share of these matches with three or more goals.
20%
Both teams to score: share of these matches in which both sides scored.
20%

Lineups · Expected

  • Beşiktaş
  • OutOrkun KökçüToe injury
  • OutMilot RashicaThigh injury
  • DoubtWilfred Ndidi
  • Kocaelispor
  • OutAleksandar JovanovićKnee injury
  • OutTanguy ZoukrouReported out, not confirmed
  • OutMassadio HaïdaraReported out, not confirmed
  • OutRigoberto RivasReported out, not confirmed
  • OutTobias GulliksenReported out, not confirmed
  • DoubtBruno PetkovićMuscle injury

What others predict · Consensus 2 of 2

Our positionWe agree on the winner. We give Kocaelispor fewer chances than Sports Mole does: they have scored seven goals in six games.

Scenario & score

Beşiktaş press, Kocaelispor wait for the break. Beşiktaş should have most of the ball and pin Kocaelispor back, as Galatasaray and Başakşehir did. 2:0 is our main score; 2:1 is the alternative if Kocaelispor score on the counter. A draw on a day when Beşiktaş finish badly, as in the 2:3 at Amed, is what beats us.

Arguing against ourselves

  1. 01Kocaelispor are in form: four wins from six and the best defence in the league.
  2. 02Kökçü, the main creator, and Rashica are out, and Ndidi is a doubt.
  3. 03Beşiktaş play at Hoffenheim in the Europa League on Thursday and lost their last game 2:3 at Amed.
Key factBeşiktaş are fifth on 12 points from six games, and Kocaelispor sixth, also on 12. Beşiktaş won 2:1 at Fenerbahçe and beat Marseille 4:1 in the Europa League, but lost 2:3 at Amed in their last game before the break. Kocaelispor have conceded four league goals, the fewest in the league, but scored only seven, and they did not score in their away defeats at Başakşehir and Galatasaray.
Full match analysis