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Football · Portugal · Primeira Liga · Matchday 8 · Lisbon

BenficavsVitória SC Sport Lisboa e Benfica vs Vitória SC · prediction

Score
2:0
Date
11 OCT
City
Lisbon
Status
Full time
No. 01 · The short versionIn our Double

Who will win Benfica vs Vitória SC?

Benfica host Vitória SC at the Estádio da Luz on Sunday after three weeks without a game, and their last match was a 1:3 defeat at Porto. Vitória have won one of their last ten games and sit 14th. Clément Lenglet is suspended, but Benfica have the squad to cover it. We back a Benfica home win, most likely 2:0.

Predicted score · alt 1:1
2:0
Our estimate
76–80%
Benfica win · odds 1.18Our estimate, not a guarantee
Why this call18+Play responsibly
Market
Benfica win
Our bet
Double No. 66 · total odds 1.44
Leg odds
1.18

Benfica vs Vitória SC at a glance

MatchSport Lisboa e Benfica vs Vitória SC
CompetitionPrimeira Liga · Matchday 8
Kick-off11 OCT · 18:00 UK · 18:00 Lisbon
VenueEstádio da Luz, Lisbon
Our pickBenfica win · 1.18 · Double No. 66 · total odds 1.44
Our estimate76–80%
Predicted score2:0
Main reasonWe think Benfica answer the Porto defeat with a confident home game.
No. 04 · Form

Benfica vs Vitória SC: recent form

Benfica 12 from 15. Vitória SC 5 from 15.

Benfica12 pts
  • Lossvs Porto1:3
  • Winvs Milan2:0
  • Winvs Gil Vicente3:1
  • Winvs Moreirense4:0
  • Winvs Marítimo3:0
Goals scored per game in these matches.
2.60
Goals conceded per game in these matches.
0.80
Share of these matches with three or more goals.
80%
Both teams to score: share of these matches in which both sides scored.
40%
Vitória SC5 pts
  • Drawvs Moreirense1:1
  • Lossvs Académico de Viseu1:2
  • Drawvs Casa Pia0:0
  • Lossvs Braga0:1
  • Winvs Nacional1:0
Goals scored per game in these matches.
0.60
Goals conceded per game in these matches.
0.80
Share of these matches with three or more goals.
20%
Both teams to score: share of these matches in which both sides scored.
40%
Key factBenfica are fourth on 16 points from seven games, eight behind leaders Porto with a game in hand, and their 22 league goals are the most in the league. Before the Porto defeat they had won four league games in a row and beaten Milan 2:0 away in the Europa League. Vitória have five points from seven games and one win, 1:0 against Nacional. Benfica have won the last four meetings, and Vitória did not score in any of them.
No. 05 · LineupsExpected

Benfica vs Vitória SC team news

Lenglet suspended and three more doubtful for Benfica; Vitória without Ndoye.

Benfica
  • OutClément LengletSuspended
  • OutEnzo BarrenecheaKnee surgery (meniscus)
  • DoubtGeorgiy SudakovAnkle sprain
  • DoubtJakub KamińskiAdductor injury
  • DoubtAlexander BahShoulder injury, recurrence
Vitória SC
  • OutAlioune NdoyeSuspended, second of three games
  • DoubtGustavo SilvaThigh muscle injury
TacticsMarco Silva loses Clément Lenglet to a ban after his red card at Porto, and Enzo Barrenechea is out after knee surgery. Georgiy Sudakov (ankle), Jakub Kamiński (adductor) and Alexander Bah (shoulder) are doubtful. Sports Mole expects Tomás Araújo and Circati in central defence, Aursnes and Palhinha in midfield and Pavlidis up front. Tiago Margarido’s Vitória are without Alioune Ndoye, banned for the second of three games, and Gustavo Silva is a doubt with a thigh injury, while Zych, Strata, Mitrović, Doucet, Mukendi and Telmo Arcanjo are back in training. The official line-ups are not out yet.
No. 06 · What others predictConsensus 1 of 1

Who do others back in Benfica vs Vitória SC?

The one preview we found expects a comfortable Benfica win.

SourcePickVersus us
Sports MoleBenfica 3:0Same side
Our positionWe agree on the winner. We expect a slightly tighter game, 2:0, with Lenglet out and Celtic coming to Lisbon on Thursday.
No. 07 · Scenario & score

Benfica vs Vitória SC predicted score

Benfica have the ball, Vitória sit deep.

Benfica should dominate possession against a Vitória side that will defend in a low block and wait for set pieces. 2:0 is our main score, with the goals coming after the first half hour. 1:1 is the risk: an early Vitória goal from a set piece and a new centre-back pair that gets nervous. A draw or a Vitória win beats us.

Predicted score
2:0
Alternative
1:1
Your score
BEN2
VSC0
No. 08 · Why this pick wins

Our Benfica vs Vitória SC pick: Benfica win

Benfica win: why this pick wins

Why we back it

We think Benfica answer the Porto defeat with a confident home game. Over their last ten games they scored 29 goals and allowed their opponents only 2.4 shots on target a game. Vitória have won one of their last ten, are missing Ndoye and struggle to finish their chances. We expect 2:0 and a calm second half.

Our probability76–80%
Our pickBenfica win
Leg odds1.18
Main scenario2:0
Our scenario
2:0alternative 1:1

What would change our mind An official team sheet without both Pavlidis and Aursnes, or with three or more regulars on the bench ahead of the Celtic game.

Odds and break-even, for reference
MarketOddsBreak-even
Benfica win1.1884.7%
Draw6.0016.7%
Vitória SC win12.008.3%

Odds snapshot 11 OCT 07:42 · no bookmaker names

No. 09 · Arguing against ourselves

What could beat our pick?

Why this could go wrong.

  1. Benfica play a new central defensive pair without Lenglet, and three more players are doubtful.
  2. Celtic visit Lisbon in the Europa League on Thursday, so Marco Silva may rotate in the second half.
  3. Vitória take plenty of shots, 17.5 a game over their last ten, and have simply not been finishing them. That can turn round in one match.
No. 10 · Editor’s call

Double

Benfica win is one leg of our double No. 66. We bet the double, not this match alone: total odds 1.44, 2.00 units.

Leg 1
Union SG win @ 1.22
Leg 2 · this match
Benfica win @ 1.18
Total odds
1.44 · 2.00 units
Published
11 OCT 07:30
Open double No. 66 →
Information only. No guarantees.18+Play responsibly
No. 11 · Update log
  1. Prediction published · Benfica win at 1.18
No. 12 · After the match
We said
2:0Bet at 1.18
Happened
2:0Benfica win
Won

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FAQ

What does Bet mean?

We expect this result and play it, as a single or as one leg of a double. It is logged in the tracker at the published odds.

How do you choose a pick?

We start from the market, then check a statistical model, named previews and our own scenario test against everything that moves the result: lineups, rest, motivation, style and team news. We publish when at least three of the four agree and the pick wins in the main scorelines. A warning sign, such as a back-up goalie or tired legs, moves us to a safer market or leaves the match as analysis only.

Can a prediction change after publishing?

No. The pick, odds and time are locked when published. Updates go into the log above.