Beşiktaş JK vs Kocaelispor prediction and odds

No. 01 · The short versionIn our Double

Who will win Beşiktaş vs Kocaelispor?

Beşiktaş host Kocaelispor at Tüpraş Stadyumu on Sunday, four points behind leaders Galatasaray with a game in hand. Kocaelispor have won four of their first six games, but over the last ten Beşiktaş have taken 18 shots a game to Kocaelispor’s ten. We back a Beşiktaş home win, most likely 2:0.

Predicted score · alt 2:1: 2:0
Our estimate: 71–75%

Beşiktaş win · odds 1.23Our estimate, not a guarantee

Why this call18+Play responsibly

Market: Beşiktaş win
Our bet: Double No. 65 · total odds 1.45
Leg odds: 1.23

Beşiktaş vs Kocaelispor at a glance

Match	Beşiktaş JK vs Kocaelispor
Competition	Süper Lig · Matchday 7
Kick-off	11 OCT · 17:00 UK · 19:00 Istanbul
Venue	Tüpraş Stadyumu, Istanbul
Our pick	Beşiktaş win · 1.23 · Double No. 65 · total odds 1.45
Our estimate	71–75%
Predicted score	2:0
Main reason	We think Beşiktaş are simply the stronger side.

No. 04 · Form

Beşiktaş vs Kocaelispor: recent form

Beşiktaş 12 from 15. Kocaelispor 12 from 15.

Beşiktaş12 pts

Lossvs Amed2:3
Winvs Marseille4:1
Winvs Erzurumspor3:0
Winvs Fenerbahçe2:1
Winvs Çorum6:2

: 3.40
: 1.40
: 100%
: 80%

Kocaelispor12 pts

Winvs Gaziantep2:0
Lossvs Galatasaray0:1
Winvs Samsunspor1:0
Winvs Konyaspor2:1
Winvs Amed2:0

: 1.40
: 0.40
: 20%
: 20%

Key factBeşiktaş are fifth on 12 points from six games, and Kocaelispor sixth, also on 12. Beşiktaş won 2:1 at Fenerbahçe and beat Marseille 4:1 in the Europa League, but lost 2:3 at Amed in their last game before the break. Kocaelispor have conceded four league goals, the fewest in the league, but scored only seven, and they did not score in their away defeats at Başakşehir and Galatasaray.

No. 05 · LineupsExpected

Beşiktaş vs Kocaelispor team news

Beşiktaş without Kökçü and Rashica; Kocaelispor missing five.

Beşiktaş

OutOrkun KökçüToe injury
OutMilot RashicaThigh injury
DoubtWilfred Ndidi

Kocaelispor

OutAleksandar JovanovićKnee injury
OutTanguy ZoukrouReported out, not confirmed
OutMassadio HaïdaraReported out, not confirmed
OutRigoberto RivasReported out, not confirmed
OutTobias GulliksenReported out, not confirmed
DoubtBruno PetkovićMuscle injury

TacticsVincenzo Italiano is without Orkun Kökçü (toe) and Milot Rashica (thigh), both injured on international duty, and Wilfred Ndidi is a doubt. Sports Mole expects Nübel in goal, Özcan as the holding midfielder and Trossard behind Vlahović. Selçuk İnan’s Kocaelispor are reported to be without Zoukrou, Haïdara, Rivas and Gulliksen, goalkeeper Aleksandar Jovanović has a knee problem and striker Bruno Petković is fighting a muscle injury.

No. 06 · What others predictConsensus 2 of 2

Who do others back in Beşiktaş vs Kocaelispor?

Both previews we read expect a Beşiktaş win.

Source	Pick	Versus us
Sports Mole	Beşiktaş 2:1	Same side
Kickoff.co.uk	Beşiktaş win, 76%	Same side

Our positionWe agree on the winner. We give Kocaelispor fewer chances than Sports Mole does: they have scored seven goals in six games.

No. 07 · Scenario & score

Beşiktaş vs Kocaelispor predicted score

Beşiktaş press, Kocaelispor wait for the break.

Beşiktaş should have most of the ball and pin Kocaelispor back, as Galatasaray and Başakşehir did. 2:0 is our main score; 2:1 is the alternative if Kocaelispor score on the counter. A draw on a day when Beşiktaş finish badly, as in the 2:3 at Amed, is what beats us.

Predicted score: 2:0
Alternative: 2:1

Your score

BJK2

KOC0

No. 08 · Why this pick wins

Our Beşiktaş vs Kocaelispor pick: Beşiktaş win

Beşiktaş win: why this pick wins

Why we back it

We think Beşiktaş are simply the stronger side. Over the last ten games they took 18 shots a game against Kocaelispor’s ten, and six on target against 2.6. Kocaelispor have collected their points mostly at home and did not score at Galatasaray or Başakşehir. Italiano needs the points to stay close to Galatasaray, so we expect his strongest side and a 2:0.

Our probability71–75%

Our pickBeşiktaş win

Leg odds1.23

Main scenario2:0

Our scenario: 2:0alternative 2:1

What would change our mind A team sheet without both Vlahović and Trossard in the starting XI, with Hoffenheim in mind.

Odds and break-even, for reference

Market	Odds	Break-even
Beşiktaş win	1.23	81.3%
Draw	4.75	21.1%
Kocaelispor win	11.00	9.1%

Odds snapshot 11 OCT 09:42 · no bookmaker names

No. 09 · Arguing against ourselves

What could beat our pick?

Why this could go wrong.

Kocaelispor are in form: four wins from six and the best defence in the league.
Kökçü, the main creator, and Rashica are out, and Ndidi is a doubt.
Beşiktaş play at Hoffenheim in the Europa League on Thursday and lost their last game 2:3 at Amed.

No. 10 · Editor’s call

Double

Beşiktaş win is one leg of our double No. 65. We bet the double, not this match alone: total odds 1.45, 3.00 units.

Leg 1: Benfica win @ 1.18
Leg 2 · this match: Beşiktaş win @ 1.23
Total odds: 1.45 · 3.00 units
Published: 11 OCT 09:30

Open double No. 65 →

Information only. No guarantees.18+Play responsibly

No. 11 · Update log

09:23Prediction published · Beşiktaş win at 1.23

No. 12 · After the match

We said: 2:0Bet at 1.23
Happened: 2:1Beşiktaş win

Won

FAQ

What does Bet mean?

We expect this result and play it, as a single or as one leg of a double. It is logged in the tracker at the published odds.

How do you choose a pick?

We start from the market, then check a statistical model, named previews and our own scenario test against everything that moves the result: lineups, rest, motivation, style and team news. We publish when at least three of the four agree and the pick wins in the main scorelines. A warning sign, such as a back-up goalie or tired legs, moves us to a safer market or leaves the match as analysis only.

Can a prediction change after publishing?

No. The pick, odds and time are locked when published. Updates go into the log above.

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