Double · No. 70 · 11 OCTWon
Real Madrid vs Manresa + Bilbao vs Burgos
- 01Real Madrid vs ManresaReal Madrid win1.08 · Won
- 02Bilbao vs BurgosBilbao win1.36 · Won
- Total odds
- 1.47
- Stake
- 2.00 units
- P&L
- +0.94 units
- Our estimate
- 60–65%
Published 11 OCT 07:3018+Play responsibly
Why this betA Liga Endesa double of two home wins: an unbeaten Real Madrid, who have won 32 of 38 home league games against Manresa, against a Kids&Us Manresa side that has conceded 208 points in two games, and Surne Bilbao, rested for four days, at home to a Burgos team without Obasohan and Čančar on its third straight road game.
Leg 1 · Basketball · Spain · Liga Endesa (ACB) · 11 OCT · 11:00 UK
Real Madrid vs Manresa
Real Madrid win1.08Won
Why this pickMadrid topped last season's regular season at 26-8, are 2-0 in the league and have won 32 of 38 home league games against Manresa, who are 0-2 and conceding 104 a game. Deck is out, but the rotation stays deep. We expect a home win by around thirteen.
- Predicted score · alt 104:82
- 96:83
- Our estimate · Real Madrid win
- 88–91%
Form · Real Madrid 3-2 in their last 5. Manresa 0-1.
Real Madrid3-2
- Winvs Partizan86:76
- Winvs Monbus Obradoiro114:107
- Lossvs Hapoel Tel Aviv98:102
- Lossvs Anadolu Efes84:94
- Winvs Unicaja89:87
- Points scored per game in these games.
- 94.2
- Points allowed per game in these games.
- 93.2
- Average combined score of both teams: a guide for over/under totals.
- 187.4
- Average points difference. Plus means they win by that much on average, minus that they lose by it.
- +1.0
Manresa0-1
- Lossvs Río Breogán95:101
Lineups · Expected
- Real Madrid
- OutGabriel DeckLeft shoulder; tests under way to see how long he is out
- Manresa
- QuestionableHugo BenítezDoubtful in the ACB injury report
- QuestionablePierre OriolaDoubtful in the ACB injury report
- QuestionableÈric VilaDoubtful in the ACB injury report
What others predict · Consensus 1 of 1
Our positionWe agree on the winner and on a margin a little short of the line. That is why we play only the Madrid win, as one leg of a double, and leave the handicap alone.
Scenario & score
Maledon controls it; Allen keeps Manresa close for a while. 96:83 is our main score: Madrid control the game through Maledon and their size inside, while Allen keeps Manresa in touch into the third quarter. 104:82 is the alternative if Manresa's three doubts do not play and the visitors run out of legs. The pick loses only if Madrid, three days after a EuroLeague game, play at half speed and Manresa shoot their way to a surprise.
Arguing against ourselves
- 01Madrid are 1-3 in the EuroLeague and beat Unicaja by only two points in the league.
- 02They needed overtime in Santiago after leading by eleven.
- 03Deck is out, and Madrid played on Thursday night.
Key factReal Madrid have won 91 of their 105 league meetings with Manresa, 32 of 38 at home (ACB figures). This season they beat Unicaja 89-87 and won 114-107 after overtime in Santiago, then beat Partizan 86-76 in the EuroLeague on Thursday. Manresa lost 95-101 at home to Río Breogán last Saturday.
Full match analysisLeg 2 · Basketball · Spain · Liga Endesa (ACB) · 11 OCT · 17:00 UK
Bilbao vs Burgos
Bilbao win1.36Won
Why this pickBurgos are without Obasohan and Čančar and play their third straight road game, four days after a EuroCup trip to Thessaloniki; Bilbao have had four days' rest and won by 13 in Bosnia without Hilliard. We expect a home win by around seven.
- Predicted score · alt 92:78
- 88:81
- Our estimate · Bilbao win
- 68–71%
Form · Bilbao 1-1 in their last 2. Burgos 1-0.
Bilbao1-1
- Winvs Igokea92:79
- Lossvs Leyma Coruña101:104
Burgos1-0
- Winvs iLERNA Lleida94:81
Lineups · Expected
- Bilbao
- QuestionableDarrun HilliardRight ankle, turned on 4 Oct; the coach expects him to play
- QuestionableHarald FreyDoubtful in the ACB injury report
- Burgos
- OutRetin ObasohanRuled out in the ACB injury report
- OutVlatko ČančarRuled out in the ACB injury report
What others predict · Consensus 1 of 1
Our positionWe agree on the winner. We expect a slightly wider margin than Sportsgambler, but not enough to trust a handicap, so we play only the Bilbao win, as one leg of a double.
Scenario & score
Bilbao's legs against a tired, short Burgos. 88:81 is our main score: at least one of Hilliard and Frey plays, and Burgos, without Obasohan and Čančar and after the trip to Greece, fade in the second half. 92:78 is the alternative if both guards are back and Burgos run out of legs in the fourth quarter. The pick loses if neither guard plays and Burgos keep it close to the end, as they did last March.
Arguing against ourselves
- 01If Hilliard and Frey both miss it, Bilbao lose two of their three top scorers from A Coruña (17 and 13 points).
- 02Last March Burgos won this fixture 96-88 after trailing by 14 going into the fourth quarter.
- 03Sportsgambler sees a three-point game, and our own rating has Bilbao about five points better at home, less than the market's six and a half.
- 04Bilbao already let a late lead slip in A Coruña.
Key factBilbao led 90-85 late in A Coruña, forced overtime with a Hilliard three at the buzzer and lost 104-101. Two days later, without Hilliard and Tryggvi Hlinason, they won 92-79 away at Igokea in the Champions League. Burgos won 94-81 in Lleida in round 2. In the preseason Bilbao beat Burgos 79-72.
Full match analysis