Real Madrid say Deck's shoulder is worse than they thought. It already failed him in August
Our take Plan for weeks, not days
Basketball · Spain · Liga Endesa · Regular season, round 3 · Madrid
Real MadridvsManresa Real Madrid vs Kids&Us Manresa · basketball prediction
Score
120:83
Date · UK
11 OCT
Local time
12:00 · 11 OCT
City
Madrid
Status
Full time
RMB120:83MANFull time
No. 01 · The short versionIn our Double
Who will win Real Madrid vs Manresa?
Our Real Madrid vs Manresa prediction: a Real Madrid home win, overtime included. Madrid are 2-0 in the Liga Endesa and finished top of last season's regular season at 26-8; Kids&Us Manresa are 0-2 and have conceded 208 points in two games. Madrid are without Gabriel Deck, and Manresa have three players doubtful. We expect a home win by around thirteen.
- Predicted score · alt 104:82
- 96:83
- Our estimate
- 88–91%
- Market
- Real Madrid win
- Our bet
- Double No. 70 · total odds 1.47
- Leg odds
- 1.08
Real Madrid vs Manresa at a glance
| Match | Real Madrid vs Kids&Us Manresa |
|---|---|
| Competition | Liga Endesa · Regular season, round 3 |
| Kick-off | 11 OCT · 11:00 UK |
| Venue | Movistar Arena, Madrid |
| Our pick | Real Madrid win · 1.08 · Double No. 70 · total odds 1.47 |
| Our estimate | 88–91% |
| Predicted score | 96:83 |
| Main reason | We think Madrid win this comfortably. |
No. 04 · Form
Real Madrid vs Manresa: recent form
Real Madrid 3-2 in their last 5. Manresa 0-1.
- Real Madrid
- EuroLeague home win over Partizan on Thu 8 Oct · 2 full days' rest, no travel
- Manresa
- EuroCup home game on Wed 7 Oct · 3 full days' rest and a trip to Madrid
Real Madrid3-2
- Winvs Partizan86:76
- Winvs Monbus Obradoiro114:107
- Lossvs Hapoel Tel Aviv98:102
- Lossvs Anadolu Efes84:94
- Winvs Unicaja89:87
- Points scored per game in these games.
- 94.2
- Points allowed per game in these games.
- 93.2
- Average combined score of both teams: a guide for over/under totals.
- 187.4
- Average points difference. Plus means they win by that much on average, minus that they lose by it.
- +1.0
Manresa0-1
- Lossvs Río Breogán95:101
Key factReal Madrid have won 91 of their 105 league meetings with Manresa, 32 of 38 at home (ACB figures). This season they beat Unicaja 89-87 and won 114-107 after overtime in Santiago, then beat Partizan 86-76 in the EuroLeague on Thursday. Manresa lost 95-101 at home to Río Breogán last Saturday.
| Season so far | RMB | MAN |
|---|---|---|
| Wins and losses. | 2-0 | 0-2 |
| Points scored per game in these games. | 203 | 187 |
| Points allowed per game in these games. | 194 | 208 |
| Last season | RMB | MAN |
|---|---|---|
| Wins and losses. | 26-8 | 16-18 |
| League position | 1 | 10 |
| Point difference | +254 | -148 |
Liga Endesa 2026-27 and 2025-26 · acb.com standings; 2025-26 regular season table
No. 05 · Injury reportExpected
Real Madrid vs Manresa injury report
Madrid without Deck; three doubts for Manresa.
Real Madrid
- OutGabriel DeckLeft shoulder; tests under way to see how long he is out
Manresa
- QuestionableHugo BenítezDoubtful in the ACB injury report
- QuestionablePierre OriolaDoubtful in the ACB injury report
- QuestionableÈric VilaDoubtful in the ACB injury report
TacticsPedro Martínez has ruled out Gabriel Deck with a left shoulder injury; tests will show how long he is out, though the coach said it does not look serious. Deck plays about 13 minutes a game, so the rotation stays deep around Theo Maledon, who averages a 30.5 valuation in the league. Diego Ocampo lists Hugo Benítez, Pierre Oriola and Èric Vila as doubtful. Timmy Allen has scored 30 or more in both of Manresa's league games.
In the news
No. 06 · What others predictConsensus 1 of 1
Who do others back in Real Madrid vs Manresa?
The one preview we found picks Madrid, by twelve.
| Source | Pick | Versus us |
|---|---|---|
| Sportsgambler | Real Madrid 101:89; their main bet is Manresa +16.5 | Same side |
Our positionWe agree on the winner and on a margin a little short of the line. That is why we play only the Madrid win, as one leg of a double, and leave the handicap alone.
No. 07 · Scenario & score
Real Madrid vs Manresa predicted score
Maledon controls it; Allen keeps Manresa close for a while.
96:83 is our main score: Madrid control the game through Maledon and their size inside, while Allen keeps Manresa in touch into the third quarter. 104:82 is the alternative if Manresa's three doubts do not play and the visitors run out of legs. The pick loses only if Madrid, three days after a EuroLeague game, play at half speed and Manresa shoot their way to a surprise.
- Predicted score
- 96:83
- Alternative
- 104:82
No. 08 · Why this pick wins
Our Real Madrid vs Manresa pick: Real Madrid win
Real Madrid win: why this pick wins
Why we back it
We think Madrid win this comfortably. They were the best team in last season's regular season, they are unbeaten in the league, and they play at home against a side that has let in 104 points a game so far. Head-to-head, Madrid have won 32 of 38 home league games against Manresa. Deck's absence costs minutes, not the core of the team.
Our probability88–91%
Our pickReal Madrid win
Leg odds1.08
Main scenario96:83
- Our scenario
- 96:83alternative 104:82
What would change our mind Madrid resting several key players at once, such as Edy Tavares, Theo Maledon and Facundo Campazzo.
Odds and break-even, for reference
| Market | Odds | Break-even |
|---|---|---|
| Real Madrid win | 1.08 | 92.6% |
| Manresa win | 10.00 | 10% |
Odds snapshot 11 OCT 07:15 · no bookmaker names
No. 09 · Arguing against ourselves
What could beat our pick?
Why this could go wrong.
- Madrid are 1-3 in the EuroLeague and beat Unicaja by only two points in the league.
- They needed overtime in Santiago after leading by eleven.
- Deck is out, and Madrid played on Thursday night.
No. 10 · Editor’s call
Double
Real Madrid win is one leg of our double No. 70. We bet the double, not this match alone: total odds 1.47, 2.00 units.
Open double No. 70 →Information only. No guarantees.18+Play responsibly
No. 11 · Update log
- Prediction published · Real Madrid win at 1.08
No. 12 · After the match
- We said
- 96:83Bet at 1.08
- Happened
- 120:83Real Madrid win
Won
Read next
FAQ
What does Bet mean?
We expect this result and play it, as a single or as one leg of a double. It is logged in the tracker at the published odds.
How do you choose a pick?
We start from the market, then check a statistical model, named previews and our own scenario test against everything that moves the result: lineups, rest, motivation, style and team news. We publish when at least three of the four agree and the pick wins in the main scorelines. A warning sign, such as a back-up goalie or tired legs, moves us to a safer market or leaves the match as analysis only.
Can a prediction change after publishing?
No. The pick, odds and time are locked when published. Updates go into the log above.