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Basketball · Spain · Liga Endesa · Regular season, round 3 · Bilbao

BilbaovsBurgos Surne Bilbao vs Recoletas Salud San Pablo Burgos · basketball prediction

Score
96:87
Date · UK
11 OCT
Local time
18:00 · 11 OCT
City
Bilbao
Status
Full time
No. 01 · The short versionIn our Double

Who will win Bilbao vs Burgos?

Our Bilbao vs Burgos prediction: a Surne Bilbao home win at Miribilla, overtime included. Recoletas Salud San Pablo Burgos come without Retin Obasohan and Vlatko Čančar, four days after a EuroCup game in Thessaloniki and on their third straight road trip. Bilbao have had four days' rest; the open question is Darrun Hilliard and Harald Frey, both listed as doubtful.

Predicted score · alt 92:78
88:81
Our estimate
68–71%
Bilbao win · odds 1.36Our estimate, not a guarantee
Why this call18+Play responsibly
Market
Bilbao win
Our bet
Double No. 70 · total odds 1.47
Leg odds
1.36

Bilbao vs Burgos at a glance

MatchSurne Bilbao vs Recoletas Salud San Pablo Burgos
CompetitionLiga Endesa · Regular season, round 3
Kick-off11 OCT · 17:00 UK
VenueBilbao Arena (Miribilla), Bilbao
Our pickBilbao win · 1.36 · Double No. 70 · total odds 1.47
Our estimate68–71%
Predicted score88:81
Main reasonWe think Bilbao win this one.
No. 04 · Form

Bilbao vs Burgos: recent form

Bilbao 1-1 in their last 2. Burgos 1-0.

Bilbao
Champions League win away at Igokea on Tue 6 Oct · 4 full days' rest
Burgos
EuroCup game away at Aris in Thessaloniki on Wed 7 Oct · 3 full days' rest, third straight road game
Bilbao1-1
  • Winvs Igokea92:79
  • Lossvs Leyma Coruña101:104
Burgos1-0
  • Winvs iLERNA Lleida94:81
Key factBilbao led 90-85 late in A Coruña, forced overtime with a Hilliard three at the buzzer and lost 104-101. Two days later, without Hilliard and Tryggvi Hlinason, they won 92-79 away at Igokea in the Champions League. Burgos won 94-81 in Lleida in round 2. In the preseason Bilbao beat Burgos 79-72.
Season so farBILBUR
Wins and losses.1-11-1
Points scored per game in these games.208191
Points allowed per game in these games.196179
Last seasonBILBUR
Wins and losses.19-1512-22
League position713
Point difference-40-103

Liga Endesa 2026-27 and 2025-26 · acb.com standings; 2025-26 regular season table

No. 05 · Injury reportExpected

Bilbao vs Burgos injury report

Hilliard and Frey doubtful; Burgos without two starters.

Bilbao
  • QuestionableDarrun HilliardRight ankle, turned on 4 Oct; the coach expects him to play
  • QuestionableHarald FreyDoubtful in the ACB injury report
Burgos
  • OutRetin ObasohanRuled out in the ACB injury report
  • OutVlatko ČančarRuled out in the ACB injury report
TacticsThe ACB injury report lists Darrun Hilliard and Harald Frey as doubtful, with the club working to have them ready. Hilliard turned his right ankle in A Coruña, where he scored 17; on Friday coach Jaume Ponsarnau said everything pointed to him and Hlinason being able to play. Frey had 13 points and 5 assists in that game. Porfi Fisac is without Retin Obasohan and Vlatko Čančar; the rest of his squad is available.
No. 06 · What others predictConsensus 1 of 1

Who do others back in Bilbao vs Burgos?

The one preview we found picks Bilbao, narrowly.

SourcePickVersus us
SportsgamblerBilbao 90:87; their main bet is Burgos +6.5Same side
Our positionWe agree on the winner. We expect a slightly wider margin than Sportsgambler, but not enough to trust a handicap, so we play only the Bilbao win, as one leg of a double.
No. 07 · Scenario & score

Bilbao vs Burgos predicted score

Bilbao's legs against a tired, short Burgos.

88:81 is our main score: at least one of Hilliard and Frey plays, and Burgos, without Obasohan and Čančar and after the trip to Greece, fade in the second half. 92:78 is the alternative if both guards are back and Burgos run out of legs in the fourth quarter. The pick loses if neither guard plays and Burgos keep it close to the end, as they did last March.

Predicted score
88:81
Alternative
92:78
No. 08 · Why this pick wins

Our Bilbao vs Burgos pick: Bilbao win

Bilbao win: why this pick wins

Why we back it

We think Bilbao win this one. They are at home after four days' rest, against a team on its third straight road game, four days after Thessaloniki and without two important players. Bilbao finished six places above Burgos last season, and even without Hilliard they won by 13 in Bosnia on Tuesday. We do not expect a rout, so we take the win, not the handicap.

Our probability68–71%
Our pickBilbao win
Leg odds1.36
Main scenario88:81
Our scenario
88:81alternative 92:78

What would change our mind Neither Hilliard nor Frey on Bilbao's game-day roster.

Odds and break-even, for reference
MarketOddsBreak-even
Bilbao win1.3673.5%
Burgos win3.4029.4%

Odds snapshot 11 OCT 07:15 · no bookmaker names

No. 09 · Arguing against ourselves

What could beat our pick?

Why this could go wrong.

  1. If Hilliard and Frey both miss it, Bilbao lose two of their three top scorers from A Coruña (17 and 13 points).
  2. Last March Burgos won this fixture 96-88 after trailing by 14 going into the fourth quarter.
  3. Sportsgambler sees a three-point game, and our own rating has Bilbao about five points better at home, less than the market's six and a half.
  4. Bilbao already let a late lead slip in A Coruña.
No. 10 · Editor’s call

Double

Bilbao win is one leg of our double No. 70. We bet the double, not this match alone: total odds 1.47, 2.00 units.

Leg 1
Real Madrid win @ 1.08
Leg 2 · this match
Bilbao win @ 1.36
Total odds
1.47 · 2.00 units
Published
11 OCT 07:30
Open double No. 70 →
Information only. No guarantees.18+Play responsibly
No. 11 · Update log
  1. Prediction published · Bilbao win at 1.36
No. 12 · After the match
We said
88:81Bet at 1.36
Happened
96:87Bilbao win
Won

Read next

    FAQ

    What does Bet mean?

    We expect this result and play it, as a single or as one leg of a double. It is logged in the tracker at the published odds.

    How do you choose a pick?

    We start from the market, then check a statistical model, named previews and our own scenario test against everything that moves the result: lineups, rest, motivation, style and team news. We publish when at least three of the four agree and the pick wins in the main scorelines. A warning sign, such as a back-up goalie or tired legs, moves us to a safer market or leaves the match as analysis only.

    Can a prediction change after publishing?

    No. The pick, odds and time are locked when published. Updates go into the log above.