Double · No. 66 · 11 OCTLost
Union SG vs OH Leuven + Benfica vs Vitória SC
- 01Union SG vs OH LeuvenUnion SG win1.22 · Lost
- 02Benfica vs Vitória SCBenfica win1.18 · Won
- Total odds
- 1.44
- Stake
- 2.00 units
- P&L
- -2.00 units
- Our estimate
- 55–61%
Published 11 OCT 07:30
Odds: average of 31 popular bookmakers, 11 OCT 07:4218+Play responsibly
Odds: average of 31 popular bookmakers, 11 OCT 07:4218+Play responsibly
Why this betUnbeaten Union SG at home to 14th-placed OH Leuven, and Benfica at home to Vitória SC. Both legs need only a home win. The Benfica leg is also part of today’s double with Beşiktaş.
Leg 1 · Football · Belgium · Pro League · 11 OCT · 15:00 UK
Union SG vs OH Leuven
Union SG win1.22Lost
Why this pickUnion are unbeaten in the league with 21 goals scored and 3 conceded; Leuven are 14th with four points and five goals. We found no outside previews, and six Union players are just back from international duty. We expect a home win, most likely 2:0.
- Predicted score · alt 1:1
- 2:0
- Our estimate · Union SG win
- 73–77%
Form · Union SG 15 from 15. OH Leuven 4 from 15.
Union SG15 pts
- Winvs Antwerp2:0
- Winvs Viktoria Plzeň3:0
- Winvs Lommel5:0
- Winvs Charleroi3:2
- Winvs Sint-Truiden3:0
- Goals scored per game in these matches.
- 3.20
- Goals conceded per game in these matches.
- 0.40
- Share of these matches with three or more goals.
- 80%
- Both teams to score: share of these matches in which both sides scored.
- 20%
OH Leuven4 pts
- Winvs La Louvière2:0
- Drawvs Cercle Brugge1:1
- Lossvs Waasland-Beveren0:3
- Lossvs Gent0:1
- Lossvs Standard1:2
- Goals scored per game in these matches.
- 0.80
- Goals conceded per game in these matches.
- 1.40
- Share of these matches with three or more goals.
- 40%
- Both teams to score: share of these matches in which both sides scored.
- 40%
Lineups · Expected
- Union SG
- OutKevin Mac AllisterCruciate ligament tear
- OH Leuven
- No absences reported.
Scenario & score
Union attack, Leuven defend. Union have taken 20 shots a game over their last five and should keep Leuven in their own half. 2:0 is our main score. 1:1 is the risk: tired internationals, an early Leuven goal from a set piece and a Union side that cannot find a way back. A draw or a Leuven win beats us.
Arguing against ourselves
- 01Six Union players have just come back from international duty, Mofokeng from South Africa.
- 02Union host Real Sociedad in the Europa League on Thursday.
- 03We found no outside preview for this game, only the table, the prices and our own data.
Key factUnion are third on 19 points, three behind leaders Gent with a game in hand. They have won five in a row in all competitions, including 3:0 at Viktoria Plzeň in the Europa League and 2:0 at Antwerp before the break. Leuven have one league win, 2:0 against La Louvière in their last game, and have scored five goals in seven games.
Full match analysisLeg 2 · Football · Portugal · Primeira Liga · 11 OCT · 18:00 UK
Benfica vs Vitória SC
Benfica win1.18Won
Why this pickVitória have won one of their last ten games and are without the suspended Ndoye; Benfica have won the last four meetings and Vitória did not score in any of them. Lenglet is suspended and three more are doubtful, so we take the straight win, most likely 2:0.
- Predicted score · alt 1:1
- 2:0
- Our estimate · Benfica win
- 76–80%
Form · Benfica 12 from 15. Vitória SC 5 from 15.
Benfica12 pts
- Lossvs Porto1:3
- Winvs Milan2:0
- Winvs Gil Vicente3:1
- Winvs Moreirense4:0
- Winvs Marítimo3:0
- Goals scored per game in these matches.
- 2.60
- Goals conceded per game in these matches.
- 0.80
- Share of these matches with three or more goals.
- 80%
- Both teams to score: share of these matches in which both sides scored.
- 40%
Vitória SC5 pts
- Drawvs Moreirense1:1
- Lossvs Académico de Viseu1:2
- Drawvs Casa Pia0:0
- Lossvs Braga0:1
- Winvs Nacional1:0
- Goals scored per game in these matches.
- 0.60
- Goals conceded per game in these matches.
- 0.80
- Share of these matches with three or more goals.
- 20%
- Both teams to score: share of these matches in which both sides scored.
- 40%
Lineups · Expected
- Benfica
- OutClément LengletSuspended
- OutEnzo BarrenecheaKnee surgery (meniscus)
- DoubtGeorgiy SudakovAnkle sprain
- DoubtJakub KamińskiAdductor injury
- DoubtAlexander BahShoulder injury, recurrence
- Vitória SC
- OutAlioune NdoyeSuspended, second of three games
- DoubtGustavo SilvaThigh muscle injury
What others predict · Consensus 1 of 1
Our positionWe agree on the winner. We expect a slightly tighter game, 2:0, with Lenglet out and Celtic coming to Lisbon on Thursday.
Scenario & score
Benfica have the ball, Vitória sit deep. Benfica should dominate possession against a Vitória side that will defend in a low block and wait for set pieces. 2:0 is our main score, with the goals coming after the first half hour. 1:1 is the risk: an early Vitória goal from a set piece and a new centre-back pair that gets nervous. A draw or a Vitória win beats us.
Arguing against ourselves
- 01Benfica play a new central defensive pair without Lenglet, and three more players are doubtful.
- 02Celtic visit Lisbon in the Europa League on Thursday, so Marco Silva may rotate in the second half.
- 03Vitória take plenty of shots, 17.5 a game over their last ten, and have simply not been finishing them. That can turn round in one match.
Key factBenfica are fourth on 16 points from seven games, eight behind leaders Porto with a game in hand, and their 22 league goals are the most in the league. Before the Porto defeat they had won four league games in a row and beaten Milan 2:0 away in the Europa League. Vitória have five points from seven games and one win, 1:0 against Nacional. Benfica have won the last four meetings, and Vitória did not score in any of them.
Full match analysis