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Football · Belgium · Pro League · Regular season · Brussels

Union SGvsOH Leuven Royale Union Saint-Gilloise vs Oud-Heverlee Leuven · prediction

Score
1:1
Date
11 OCT
City
Brussels
Status
Full time
No. 01 · The short versionIn our Double

Who will win Union SG vs OH Leuven?

Union Saint-Gilloise, unbeaten in the Pro League, host OH Leuven at the Stade Joseph Marien on Sunday. Union have won six of their seven league games, with 21 goals scored and 3 conceded; Leuven are 14th with four points. We back a Union home win, most likely 2:0.

Predicted score · alt 1:1
2:0
Our estimate
73–77%
Union SG win · odds 1.22Our estimate, not a guarantee
Why this call18+Play responsibly
Market
Union SG win
Our bet
Double No. 66 · total odds 1.44
Leg odds
1.22

Union SG vs OH Leuven at a glance

MatchRoyale Union Saint-Gilloise vs Oud-Heverlee Leuven
CompetitionPro League · Regular season
Kick-off11 OCT · 15:00 UK · 16:00 Brussels
VenueStade Joseph Marien, Brussels
Our pickUnion SG win · 1.22 · Double No. 66 · total odds 1.44
Our estimate73–77%
Predicted score2:0
Main reasonWe think the gap in quality is the biggest of the day here.
No. 04 · Form

Union SG vs OH Leuven: recent form

Union SG 15 from 15. OH Leuven 4 from 15.

Union SG15 pts
  • Winvs Antwerp2:0
  • Winvs Viktoria Plzeň3:0
  • Winvs Lommel5:0
  • Winvs Charleroi3:2
  • Winvs Sint-Truiden3:0
Goals scored per game in these matches.
3.20
Goals conceded per game in these matches.
0.40
Share of these matches with three or more goals.
80%
Both teams to score: share of these matches in which both sides scored.
20%
OH Leuven4 pts
  • Winvs La Louvière2:0
  • Drawvs Cercle Brugge1:1
  • Lossvs Waasland-Beveren0:3
  • Lossvs Gent0:1
  • Lossvs Standard1:2
Goals scored per game in these matches.
0.80
Goals conceded per game in these matches.
1.40
Share of these matches with three or more goals.
40%
Both teams to score: share of these matches in which both sides scored.
40%
Key factUnion are third on 19 points, three behind leaders Gent with a game in hand. They have won five in a row in all competitions, including 3:0 at Viktoria Plzeň in the Europa League and 2:0 at Antwerp before the break. Leuven have one league win, 2:0 against La Louvière in their last game, and have scored five goals in seven games.
No. 05 · LineupsExpected

Union SG vs OH Leuven team news

Union without captain Mac Allister; six players back from international duty.

Union SG
  • OutKevin Mac AllisterCruciate ligament tear
OH Leuven

No absences reported.

TacticsUnion have been without captain Kevin Mac Allister since he tore a cruciate ligament against Lommel on 12 September, and they have won every game since. Six players were away with their national teams over the break: Zorgane, Mofokeng, Kricfalusi, Zeneli, Olaru and Koffi. We could not confirm that all of them are fit to start. We found no team news for Leuven and no predicted line-ups for this game.
No. 07 · Scenario & score

Union SG vs OH Leuven predicted score

Union attack, Leuven defend.

Union have taken 20 shots a game over their last five and should keep Leuven in their own half. 2:0 is our main score. 1:1 is the risk: tired internationals, an early Leuven goal from a set piece and a Union side that cannot find a way back. A draw or a Leuven win beats us.

Predicted score
2:0
Alternative
1:1
Your score
USG2
OHL0
No. 08 · Why this pick wins

Our Union SG vs OH Leuven pick: Union SG win

Union SG win: why this pick wins

Why we back it

We think the gap in quality is the biggest of the day here. Over the last ten games Union put 8.2 shots a game on target, while Leuven managed 2.9 and allowed 5.1. Union have not lost in the league, and even without their captain they have won five in a row. We expect 2:0, with a little less confidence because there are few outside sources.

Our probability73–77%
Our pickUnion SG win
Leg odds1.22
Main scenario2:0
Our scenario
2:0alternative 1:1

What would change our mind An official team sheet with three or more regulars on the bench ahead of the Real Sociedad game.

Odds and break-even, for reference
MarketOddsBreak-even
Union SG win1.2282%
Draw5.7517.4%
OH Leuven win9.5010.5%

Odds snapshot 11 OCT 08:42 · no bookmaker names

No. 09 · Arguing against ourselves

What could beat our pick?

Why this could go wrong.

  1. Six Union players have just come back from international duty, Mofokeng from South Africa.
  2. Union host Real Sociedad in the Europa League on Thursday.
  3. We found no outside preview for this game, only the table, the prices and our own data.
No. 10 · Editor’s call

Double

Union SG win is one leg of our double No. 66. We bet the double, not this match alone: total odds 1.44, 2.00 units.

Leg 1 · this match
Union SG win @ 1.22
Leg 2
Benfica win @ 1.18
Total odds
1.44 · 2.00 units
Published
11 OCT 08:30
Open double No. 66 →
Information only. No guarantees.18+Play responsibly
No. 11 · Update log
  1. Prediction published · Union SG win at 1.22
No. 12 · After the match
We said
2:0Bet at 1.22
Happened
1:1Draw
Lost

Read next

FAQ

What does Bet mean?

We expect this result and play it, as a single or as one leg of a double. It is logged in the tracker at the published odds.

How do you choose a pick?

We start from the market, then check a statistical model, named previews and our own scenario test against everything that moves the result: lineups, rest, motivation, style and team news. We publish when at least three of the four agree and the pick wins in the main scorelines. A warning sign, such as a back-up goalie or tired legs, moves us to a safer market or leaves the match as analysis only.

Can a prediction change after publishing?

No. The pick, odds and time are locked when published. Updates go into the log above.